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02-23-2020 , 12:45 AM

Gcm1998

grinder

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 466

Just played 67 HU turbos vs the same player and got crushed, however looking at the session stats I see my evbb/100 was very positive. I won 11evbb/100 and the real winrate was -10bb/100. this means I just ran bad right? Or is winrate not a good metric for this format?
this is the session graph: https://gyazo.com/c41bcd6df47037ee7a77de5fe5299881

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02-23-2020 , 01:40 AM

Duncelanas

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 6,334

Evbb/100 is an alright metric, but with bigger samples you'll want to be more granular with it and do some filtering by effective stack, too. You could be crushing while 50+ effective and doing relatively poorly in endgame, for example, which would make your evbb/100 look good but your actual cev not so much.

With that said, 70 games isn't enough to do that sort of analysis so I wouldn't worry too much. Seems you just ran kinda bad here anyway.

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02-25-2020 , 03:41 AM

TheGodson

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 3,071

Use a binomial distribution formula to determine the probabilities. If the results are really bad, you can actually find out early.

For example. If you won 20 of those 67 games then there is over a 99% chance that you are definitely losing.

Winrate = 20/67 = .2985 = 29.85%

Range = ((9 * .2985 * (1 - .2985)) / 67) ^ (1/2) = .1677 = 16.77%

Within a 99% certainty your winrate would be 29.85% +/- 16.77%. The best case scenario here would be 46.62% which would still be losing.

This is super useful in determining who is better than you/who you are better than if it is unclear at a glance.

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02-25-2020 , 11:03 AM

Gcm1998

grinder

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 466

After playing 264 HU sng vs this player(mostly at 50€ buy in) I lost 300€ but icm winnings according to HM3 were +70€ and there were 2 sng that stars client froze and he blinded me down. After 8624 hands I won at 10.37 evbb/100 but lost to rake paid which was was 753.6€

BB graph cuz why not: https://gyazo.com/a1b16e35d50dc210c9d8ef5ea6222523

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02-25-2020 , 11:49 AM

valuecutting

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 419

bb/100 doesnt translate to chips as the blinds are changing, but chips/chipev directly translates to $/ev$, so that is the metric to look at

your winrate in husng will be what % you win, not how many blinds you win per 100 hands

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02-25-2020 , 02:07 PM

Gcm1998

grinder

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 466

thanks, This is the chips graph: https://gyazo.com/7a66513c7b62986798ea40672dec4b94
Does any one have an idea of how chipev tranlate into itm% in turbos?

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02-26-2020 , 12:33 AM

valuecutting

grinder

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 419

(chips per game+starting chips)/(2*starting chips)

similar for chip and evitm

roi is 2 * itm - 1 - rake

so if you won 29k chip ev over 264 games and starting stacks are 1500 then your ev roi is 7.3% before rake

of course 260 games is a small sample, but over that sample it looks like you are winning for a small amount past rake and he is down probably 30 buyins in ev

so not like you're printing vs him, but he is getting crushed if you are just playing for the lobby

Last edited by valuecutting; 02-26-2020 at 12:40 AM.

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02-26-2020 , 06:38 AM

Gcm1998

grinder

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 466

Well I wasnt playing him for the lobby. Im a cash reg, mostly 6max but Ive been playing HU zoom and I played some vs him and thought he was terrible even tho he somehows hold lobby on 50€/30€/20€ on stars.frespt. I guess the edge is there but after rake and with no rakeback its just not worth it probably.

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