River:(270, 2 players) 2 BB bets 350 and is all-in, Hero ?
The main point is : why would he bluff on a board that hits my range? I guess it maybe because i checked back the flop and because it pairs, which makes less likely i got an A. Overall I think this is a call. what do you think?
Yes, it is a dry texture. Yes, he will fold a lot. But still I don't slowplay my value hands unless I have a specific read on villain. So I would just cbet flop small (like 30 %).
As played, I am not sure... These big sizings tend to be polarized. And I saw people using even 3x pot sizing otr with value (I guess they watched some of Doug Polk matches vs Dnegs).
I am a station, so call. He can still have some missed diamonds, random stuff or he can even overvalue his 9x combos (not sure how likely this is... but people like to probe merged range - not sure whether with this sizing, but I see a lot of weak pairs in their probing range. Thing is, that they usually check the river and don't use such a big sizing).
What you can do is to filter the spots where they used big sizing and you got to showdown. That will give you an idea about how they play.
Another thing: if villain was not 3b much, he can have plenty of Ax in his range.
According to the solver this is a mistake. The fact is that there is nothing we beat and KK is basically a bluffcatcher. he would play mid pair this way and he would likely shove/raise pre qq/jj/tt+
Hi
I think the main thing is going on the turn here.
His probe is looking like a protection bet, i mean 9x. (I assume he knows that his fold equity is high with this kind of bet on paired board). So i would probably min click on this situation (and call over jam) to not let "free equity" to flush draw or to huggly gutshot.
Anyway, as played, river is a bit complicated, but I think the fold is correct. Without any reads, I don't expect players to barrels for bluff on paired board. He could have some min str8, and trips. Probably some 9x but at this point I'm not sure. And still some miss flushdraw.
But as paired board are really hard to bluff, I will fold and take the notes, to have a better read the next time he will shove.
no need for solver, pretty sure its very standard triple barre like 90% of the time, flops is 100% cbet, im not only sure about turn, could be checkback some small percentage of the time just because its best pocket pair, but even than if it checks turn and BB bets river im pretty sure gto will raise it otr. Point is in gto this is not some bluff catcher or thin value bet hand, this is fistpump get it in for value hand, no matter what line it takes