so i read the huge super turbo thread last and was wondering if someone could explain to me why variance would be higher in these than regular turbos? i'm obv not getting something. to me its all about getting it in better than ur opp and what difference does it make wheather ur playing reg turbo or super turbo, i'm not clear on the whole variance schtick and why most don't feel like anything above 5% roi long term is achievable.

chess is a low variance game because there is a lot of skill involved and very little luck.

in poker the deeper the stacks are the more it's a skill game. the shorter the stacks are the more it's a luck game. when you have more luck involved, the variance is going to be higher.

in deep stack poker if someone open shoved against you every hand you would have a really high roi. the shorter the stacks get the lower your roi gets. i know people aren't open shoving every hand, but in STs there is a ton of shoving going on and stacks are short so it's impossible to have a really high roi

You start off with 25 BB and if you/villain are min raising the btn thats only 12.5 BBs. With blinds going up every 3 min. You will see ppl start getting it in lighter PF when under 10BBs or so and luck will be more of a factor.

This is a good way of explaining it.

Another way is that with the old superturbo structure that started 10bb deep, the game wasn't beatable given standard rake, even though many players played quite poorly.

certainly these games are beatable. i don't understand how the variance can be that different from reg turbos that usually end in shove fests to some extent any way...getting it in with aq vs aj has same winning percentages whether ur 20bb deep or 150bb deep no?

Ive played a fair amount of turbos and that is certainly not the case for me.

and i wouldn't consider reg turbos to be "deep" stacked and certainly players destroy these with high roi over big sample size so doesn't just come down to making quicker adjustments than opp and solid decision making..i'm not quite understanding the theory behind super turbos not being just as profitable when much of the same skills are used, no?

If the only way you're winning reg speeds is preflop you're doing it wrong.

i just don't understand how variance can be that much different than reg speed turbos....if ur getting in two to three times as many games in per day

i think we should have a super turbo forum

I don't think you're really getting the concept of variance tbh. It has nothing to do with whether it takes you 1 day or 375 years to play a certain number of games...

The biggest thing that affects variance is the expected/avg roi. In super turbos you have a very low edge and can expect 3-5% roi (from what I have read). In deep stack you can have an roi in the 20% range (from my experience). Try looking in some books on blackjack card counting or in video poker http://www.bobdancer.com/articles.cfm about what there swings are like and therefore their bankroll requirements. There should also be some examples in the full ring sng section.

As stacks get shallower your edge shrinks. Given that STs start 25bb deep and blinds increase so quickly, your edge is much smaller. Take the counterexample of deeps, where even in mid-highstakes 20% ROI is achievable. This is because you have more time to adjust and exploit your opponent, as well as having more opportunities to push edges.

Variance in tournaments (instead of cash games) can be calculated roughly as a function of your ITM%.

A low RoI also contributes to the "swinginess" of your results, but that is not strictly "variance".

That is to say, if the your ITM% in a super turbo is the same as your ITM% in a turbo, the variance would be the same.

HOWEVER, people tend to swing more in super turbos because a) edge, b) ITM%

Your edge is lower because when you're deeper, the EV of your decisions are not as close. Going all in every hand when you're 50bbs is significantly less +EV than going all in over hand when you're 25bbs deep because while, yes, everytime you call with AK vs A2, you have the same equity/edge, every time you FOLD when you're 50bbs deep you lose 1/50th of your stack, but you lose 1/25th of it in a superturbo. As such, there is a slight advantage at being spewingly loose at super turbos than at turbos or reg speeds, even if that advantage does not outweight the disadvantage.

As for b, because the rake % in super turbos is less than turbos, which are different from reg speeds, even if your RoI is the same in the two formats (unlikely to begin with), your ITM% is still going to be less in a superturbo so the "variance" is higher. That is to say, if you can get 13% (57.5 winrate) RoI at a superturbo you're going to have the same variance as someone with 5% RoI at a reg speed (57.5% winrate), but obviously win much more and thus have way fewer swings.

Of course 13% RoI is not possible, though.

What's the difference?

You have different ITM% but same RoI because of rake structure between STs, Turbos, and Regs, right?

I might've misunderstood, but that should be right from what I've read from Kelly-related stuff posted here.

This is the only reason why having 2% RoI at STs would be more swingy than 2% RoI at regs or turbos, I thought.