Hi, just to double check, this hand like a standard shove with effe. stack size vs. a aggro villain who opens any2:

PokerStars Hand #167851311261: Tournament #1859161305, $3.40+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level II (15/30) - 2017/03/20 9:34:02 ET
Table '1859161305 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: nomar2408 (460 in chips)
Seat 2: tutifrut (540 in chips)
tutifrut: posts small blind 15
nomar2408: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nomar2408 [Jc 8s]
tutifrut: raises 30 to 60
nomar2408: raises 400 to 460 and is all-in


Or is there a reason why this should not be profitable?

Well, it depends on what his raise/call range is and how much you will be playing this guy.
If he calls very wide than flat is better also if you will play him a lot, than you dont want to 3bet jam something like 50% even its very profitable, because he will adjust. Anyway Id say this is std flat, there are much better hands to 3bet jam.

standard flat. Shoving is maybe better than folding, flatting is definitely better than folding and most of the time decent amount better than shoving. From my experience most aggro guys call shove quite wide, so even if they open a lot bluff shoving is still pretty bad (especially compared to flatting, or even non-all-in 3b/fold).

If villain is openin any 2, then this is same situation if we were 7.5bb deep in the small blind. Only difference is that we have to play oop when 15bb in the big blind. Openshoving J8o 7.5bb is not terrible imo altough limp is better.

hm.. interesting discussion i think... i am currently trying to push a lot 15bb deep when villain is mr often - i don't want to flat and vs. aggressive villains i have to give up 9 out of 10 situations with often investing even more before finally folding.

Considering that i think push here is definitely more +ev.

Also, there are calculation lists which even justify push any2 here if villain is open any two and even if he is calling really wide like 30-40% any2 is plus ev.

This i can´t do 5 times in a row, thats clear... but this is a good hand to push but bad for post flop in my opinion.

i really don't understand why so often here a recommendation is flatting, calling etc. instead of pushing, pre and post flop on flop e.g. we have so less chips and it is so expensive to not hit very well and to give up compared with the overall equity when he is calling but specifically with adding up fold equity...

What are your thoughts on this?

Yeah, you're wrong. Calling here is good and is almost always better than jamming. In general, calling 15bb deep is really good and should be your most frequent choice by far.

As for 3b shove math, there are a lot of calculators you can use. Paid ones include ICMIZER, Holdem Resources, Coffeecalcs. There's a free one on husng.com as well.

If your opponent is really opening ATC, and calls 40% of the the time, then yes 85% of your range is better shoved than folded--still many can call more profitably. Also chances are really high they're not actually minraising ATC If they minraise 80% but call top 40%, then about 50% hands are unprofitable shoves even compared to folding. J8o is about break-even compared to folding, while flatting will do significantly better.

I will look in a excel sheet later which was released on HUSNG. I am pretty sure that this is way profitable even if villain opens 80% and calls 30% - but most villains - even Aggro do not call that wide, especially when it is my first 3bet shove.

But regarding calling? How is this profitable if villain is betting any street on any Flop to make it a little extreme? My leaks are really Post Flop as I need something like 88A to not fold instantly - to make it also extrem.

Even on kJ2 I call Flop and river 3 and 2nd barrel I fold. This is so crazy. Because everything i post a Hand where I am pushing than his cbet or 2nd barrel this turns out to be also wrong.

How can I fix this leak and how do I know how to play in that example?


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+1 to what none888 and coffeeyay said.

Sounds to me like your main problem is that you aren't comfortable enough playing these types of hands post-flop vs villains who also cbet wide and barrell a decent amount. Therefore you take the easier route and jam too much, lowering your expectation. Looks for spots to check-raise bluff post-flop. Don't fold 2nd pairs to barrells against aggressive villains. Don't check-raise strong hands, but instead let them barrell down.

I think it's fine to push a bit wider at this depth if villains are opening too wide, but doing with a hand like J8o doesn't make any sense when the hand plays really in single raised pots this shallow.

For example, a hand like 54s has significantly better expectation when shoved compared to J8o, whereas it's hard to flop a good pair that can be check-raised or called two or three streets post-flop.

Even hands 3-bet-jamming hands like T4s and 43s have the same expectation as J8o, whereas their flatting value at this depth is lower.

Like none888 suggested, you don't want him to stop making a significant mistake (opening too wide). If villain opens wide you should flat wide and not jam any two. 3-bet-jam some hands that are only marginal flats, but have good expectation to shove when he keeps min-raising too wide. Obviously you are also jamming value hands like small pocket pairs and Ax.