Prop Bet: $10,000 at $55s in 30 days - Page 6 - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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Prop Bet: $10,000 at $55s in 30 days

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04-08-2011 , 09:23 AM

#126

nicecatch08

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,724

thanks for the constant updates ITT magic, appreciated. gl

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04-08-2011 , 10:12 AM

#127

Motown_RC

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,326

Wait, has this started yet?

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04-08-2011 , 10:36 AM

#128

Lanfear23

newbie

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 37

Yes.

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04-08-2011 , 10:42 AM

#129

Motown_RC

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,326

Damn I haven't been paying enough attention lols. Will sweat some this weekend.

GLGL but don't take my 600 bucks

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04-08-2011 , 12:08 PM

#130

bpmst2

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 460

Should be interesting to see if you can pull this off. I think the shear number of games you'll have to play will make your play deteriorate and make this too hard of a challenge to accomplish. Its not about anything but your stamina and mental capacity imo. Regardless, gl to all sides in this.

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04-08-2011 , 12:28 PM

#131

Tcarnage

adept

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 987

gl Magic...

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04-08-2011 , 12:28 PM

#132

captainbroke

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 11

10k in $55's is 100% doable if you outline a schedule and stick to it. I wouldnt be willing to bet on it, but i know its doable. I know a lot of the really good regs can do it, which im not there yet. IMO, ricestud could do this in 25 days because he is capable of playing 5-6 tables at a time. hneves82, janekaaa, mad-shoe-ter and even golforejht72 also can. I think if lanfear23 had better game selection (which is hard to do given you have to play a lot) he also could do it.

Bottom line, its doable....just not easy.

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04-08-2011 , 12:31 PM

#133

Barbra Streisand

banned

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 2,741

no way golforejht72 can pull this 1 off lol

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04-08-2011 , 12:39 PM

#134

coffeeyay

See my staking thread

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 3,536

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barbra Streisand

no way golforejht72 can pull this 1 off lol

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04-08-2011 , 12:39 PM

#135

sqydro

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 530

Quote:

Originally Posted by _MAGiC_

$943.85 below ev

Spoiler:

not too worried tho, im playing better than i was earlier.

run better magic!! that youtube clip made me chuckle lol
GLGL

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04-08-2011 , 12:40 PM

#136

Chip10Leader

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 753

Quote:

Originally Posted by captainbroke

lol everyone can do it, only question is if it is +ev to bet at 4:1 or not. btw janeka doesn't play more than 2 tables, only reason he would prob do this is that enough of the time he would have like 15%roi lol.

Last edited by Chip10Leader; 04-08-2011 at 12:53 PM.

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04-08-2011 , 12:53 PM

#137

captainbroke

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 11

Well yeah. You need either super high volume or super high roi. Some players have both.

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04-08-2011 , 01:02 PM

#138

nicecatch08

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,724

I think this is possible, if I had the time to attempt this, i would think 4:1 would be about the right odds.

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04-08-2011 , 01:13 PM

#139

Motown_RC

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,326

I could not do this. The motivation needed for acquiring the additional $XXXX after a week straight of grinding 55s would kill me... so OP deserves my manies if he gets them.

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04-08-2011 , 01:40 PM

#140

nicecatch08

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 2,724

if he does it, he is getting many manies

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04-08-2011 , 02:40 PM

#141

TGSM89

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,491

does any1 know how many games he has to play to win the bet at these ROI:

a)5%
b)7%
c)9%

?

edit: or what is the equation, too lazy to find it/work it out

GOOD LUCK MAGICCCCC

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04-08-2011 , 02:51 PM

#142

ItsOnlyChips

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 2,230

# of games required = 10k/((roi/100)*57.50)

as an example, for 5% = 10k/(0.05*57.50) = ~3478 games

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04-08-2011 , 02:58 PM

#143

TGSM89

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 8,491

3478 is quite a lot

116 games per day.. how many hours is that 4 tabling? got about 3hrs according to my calcs... maybe it is not THAT crazy volume...

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04-08-2011 , 03:02 PM

#144

ChicagoRy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,589

He's playing on Stars. Maybe 5 games per hour, 6 max with zero game selection/waiting for lobby per table he's on.

At most he's looking at 20 games per hour if he's 4 tabling, and it's probably not that high.

So 6+ hrs a day playing a ton of tables for 30 straight days...

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04-08-2011 , 03:04 PM

#145

KarlizL

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,624

no way he will do this, I almost wish I had booked 10k

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04-08-2011 , 03:06 PM

#146

ChicagoRy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,589

He does have odds too. I'm not sure what the # of relatively tilt free games is needed to make 4-1 good, but it's probably less than 3k games on average to make this +EV (given that he'll run good some % of the time).

If he tilts or plays bad after awhile the # of course goes up, so I'm making some friendly assumptions to magic. But if he can put in 3k good games on this bet on average, he should win at least 20-25% of the time, right?

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04-08-2011 , 03:29 PM

#147

Motown_RC

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,326

ROI and doability wise....

If you pull up his last 6months of playing... you can see the following:

NL Hold'em turbo 57.5:
Profit: $8,380
ROI: 4.4%
Games: 3,336

Now this is assumed with "time" to play.. play when you want...days off... etc.

This isn't like you decided you were going to crunch it all into 30 days (and still came up short fwiw). He'd have to replicate his last 6months + a cherry on top in 30 days to snag this up.

That's why he gets mad props from me if/when he does it.

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04-08-2011 , 03:29 PM

#148

Joe Pulaski

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 8,346

i ran hot one month this summer and made like 7k at 50 reg speeds without really trying so its possible but you'd have to grind like a mother****er and it wouldnt be worth it imo

Last edited by Joe Pulaski; 04-08-2011 at 03:49 PM. Reason: +3k is a lot more money at 50s

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04-08-2011 , 03:48 PM

#149

KarlizL

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 2,624

doubt he can do this 20-25% of the time. I'm sure he's good but he has tried to do several challenges likes this and always failed because of tilt or something else
also he has to play 4 tables and I don't think he's used to it
He also was on a heater before this bet which gave him the confidence he can do this

anyways, maybe Magic will prove me wrong

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04-08-2011 , 04:05 PM

#150

ChicagoRy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 20,589

I didn't mean to imply that he personally will do this 20-25% of the time, just that if he can consistently put in 3k games of quality volume during this bet that I'd expect the bet to be +EV for him.

Anyways, good luck magic, get to the grind!

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