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Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator

08-17-2011 , 03:36 PM
Actually, scratch that. I looked at the sheet, and the second number is set up to be the probability that he both raises the button AND calls a shove. Thus, it can't be higher than the raise percent, as he can't call with a higher percent of hands than he raises with the way the formulas are set up.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-17-2011 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
So, he raises 70%, and calls 80% when he raises, so that should be 56% of the entire range of possible starting hands.
I'm a COMPLETE maths fish, can you explain how you got this? I think I've been using the calculator wrong ffffuuuuuuuuuuu.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-17-2011 , 07:01 PM
As I mentioned, the spreadsheet is set up so that the above image makes no sense -- the call % must be <= the raise %. If you have the call% at 50%, that mean he calls the top 50% of his range.

I thought that number was the % he called given a raise -- that is, what % of his raising range he calls with. The probability of a raise, then a call is P(raise)*P(call|raise) (for that example = .7*.8 = .56). But that sheet doesn't do it like that.

As for updates, I have a button/refresh system for the S-C quiz finally [needed to learn to macro sometime], and am planning something I'm calling the POS (Perfect Opponent-based Shove) range quiz that accounts for the fact that a lot of opponents are playing such that you can shove wider than S-C. This may be a while, as it does require the same mechanism for the Pokerstove integration.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-18-2011 , 12:20 AM
amazing work by the way, thanks for doing it. This speadsheet keeps getting better and better
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-18-2011 , 07:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Polycarpus
I think I found a small error in version 2.21
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
Actually, scratch that. I looked at the sheet, and the second number is set up to be the probability that he both raises the button AND calls a shove. Thus, it can't be higher than the raise percent, as he can't call with a higher percent of hands than he raises with the way the formulas are set up.
Thx for the feedback. In that case, the formula is correct, but the description behind the 2nd number is false, or misleading at least.

Currently it sais :"What what percentage of his starting range is villain calling your shove"
And I think better would be:"With what percentage of hands is villain calling your shove"
Because the words "his starting range" seem to imply the hands he raises with rather than all possible holdings.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-18-2011 , 01:16 PM
If people want I'm pretty sure I can change that to the way the description says by messing with just one formula -- I see that was as more intuitive but others might see the way it is as more intuitive.

Actually I think I can make a conversion tool where you can fill in one and the other auto-completes, probably the best way to do it so you can see it both ways.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-20-2011 , 09:18 AM
If I fill in a calling range for 3-bet shoves higher than 30%, I always get an error.
The calculator opens pokerstove, gives the calling range, but puts it in red, as if something was wrong.
Within the calculator a Microsoft Visual Basic message pops up, saying: "Error 6 during execution: overloop".
When I click on more details, I get the code saying:

a = 1
Do
If Mid(Text, a, 1) <> "%" Then
EquityStr = EquityStr & Mid(Text, a, 1)
Else
Exit Do
End If
a = a + 1
Loop

Any clues, anybody?
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-20-2011 , 12:58 PM
Hey poycarpus,

it's a know problem. I spent hours and hours to find out why that happens, but I finally gave up.

The overflow that occurs is quite logical, the problem is that PokerStove doesn't like the ranges bigger than 30%.
The funny thing is, if you restrict the range from the bottom, for example not top 40%, but 5% to 40% (not possible in this tool, because not senseful there) there is no problem.
You can send a range from 5% to 100%, and the error doesn't occur. So it can't have to do something with the lenght of the range. The whole thing makes no sense to me.

I'm quite sure the problem is not in the code, it's something with PokerStove, and I habe no idea how to handle this, I'm sorry.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-20-2011 , 10:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
As I mentioned, the spreadsheet is set up so that the above image makes no sense -- the call % must be <= the raise %. If you have the call% at 50%, that mean he calls the top 50% of his range.

I thought that number was the % he called given a raise -- that is, what % of his raising range he calls with. The probability of a raise, then a call is P(raise)*P(call|raise) (for that example = .7*.8 = .56). But that sheet doesn't do it like that.
I'm trying to understand the way you're calculating the fold equity.

So it seems to me like the formula you are using is,

Fold Equity = P(fold to shove|raise preflop)*(1 BB + preflop raise size)

And then you are calculating the above using this identity,

P(fold to shove|preflop raise) = 1 - P(call shove AND raise preflop)/P(raise preflop)

So just to be clear we have this correspondence in the cells on the spreadsheet:

B7 = P(call shove AND raise preflop)
B6 = P(raise preflop)

I ask because your description of cell B7 is misleading and I actually interpreted it as P(call shove|raise preflop) (which would lead to bad calculations).
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-20-2011 , 11:24 PM
In the fold equity call, P(call shove and raise preflop)/P(raise preflop) = P(call preflop|raise preflop). This equality is a direct result of Bayes's Theorem -- so either way you'll get the right value as long as you put the right percent in the box.

However there's seems to be a decent amount of confusion as to where to put P(call and raise pre) or P(call|raise pre) in that box (as the formula is currently set up it's the former), so I am going to fix the description for that cell in the next revision though, I'll agree the wording is ambiguous.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-22-2011 , 11:27 PM
would be awesome if u could edit the op to contain all the versions, and most importantly the latest one so u dont have to go through the whole thread to find it.
and thx for this.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-22-2011 , 11:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OG Ultrastein
would be awesome if u could edit the op to contain all the versions, and most importantly the latest one so u dont have to go through the whole thread to find it.
and thx for this.
I added the latest version to the OP. Is there really a need to include the older versions though?
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-23-2011 , 01:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Newff
I added the latest version to the OP. Is there really a need to include the older versions though?
Hey, it's been a while. Good to see you back. Thanks for editing the link into the OP (I think more people than I'd like still have the first version) -- you left a </br> tag at the end of the URL, though
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-23-2011 , 02:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
Hey, it's been a while. Good to see you back. Thanks for editing the link into the OP (I think more people than I'd like still have the first version) -- you left a </br> tag at the end of the URL, though
Fixed and thanks. I've been busy but finally able to come back I've got grind on my mind again now and will also be trying out this spreadsheet.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-23-2011 , 04:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Polycarpus
If I fill in a calling range for 3-bet shoves higher than 30%, I always get an error.
The calculator opens pokerstove, gives the calling range, but puts it in red, as if something was wrong.
Within the calculator a Microsoft Visual Basic message pops up, saying: "Error 6 during execution: overloop".
When I click on more details, I get the code saying:

a = 1
Do
If Mid(Text, a, 1) <> "%" Then
EquityStr = EquityStr & Mid(Text, a, 1)
Else
Exit Do
End If
a = a + 1
Loop

Any clues, anybody?
Quote:
Originally Posted by wrzr123
Hey poycarpus,

it's a know problem. I spent hours and hours to find out why that happens, but I finally gave up.

The overflow that occurs is quite logical, the problem is that PokerStove doesn't like the ranges bigger than 30%.
The funny thing is, if you restrict the range from the bottom, for example not top 40%, but 5% to 40% (not possible in this tool, because not senseful there) there is no problem.
You can send a range from 5% to 100%, and the error doesn't occur. So it can't have to do something with the lenght of the range. The whole thing makes no sense to me.

I'm quite sure the problem is not in the code, it's something with PokerStove, and I habe no idea how to handle this, I'm sorry.
Nah, if I give in the same ranges in PokerStove manually, I don't get an error. So it should be something in the code...
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-23-2011 , 07:31 PM
I get the same error of "overloop"/"overflow". When I have a pfr-size of 60 en fold to shove of 33 pokerstove calculates, but not with 60 and 34. When I add a few extra calculations on the spreadsheet which uses the equity data it drops to 60 and 32. Can it have something to do with time needed to do the calculation. As polycarpus said, pokerstove itself does not have a problem calculating itself (it will calculate a random range vs a random range, given time)
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-23-2011 , 07:59 PM
I can't test this on this computer, but is it possible to set Stove to run the Monte Carlo sim in these cases, stopping the evaluation after 1M or so iterations and then checking the results?
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-24-2011 , 10:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Polycarpus
Nah, if I give in the same ranges in PokerStove manually, I don't get an error. So it should be something in the code...
Of course they are right if you enter them manually.
But if you try to copy and paste that range into the field, it also gets red.
And I really cannot figure out why.
Really strange is, if you paste a range PokerStove doesn't "like", and you click the "Player 2" button, the right range appears.

Quote:
Originally Posted by themuppets
I can't test this on this computer, but is it possible to set Stove to run the Monte Carlo sim in these cases, stopping the evaluation after 1M or so iterations and then checking the results?
It has nothing to do with the way of evaluation. The problem is, that Pokerstove doesn't accept ranges from 0% to larger than 30%, if they aren't entered manually.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-24-2011 , 12:02 PM
okay, I probably got a workaround for this...

The tool puts all Hands in one string, and sends it to PokerStove. PokerStove "shortens" the range, it writes for example "TT+" instead of "AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT".

It seems like it works if the tool sends the short version, so I'll try to integrate that soon.
It doesn't explain the behaviour, but well, the main thing is that it works.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-24-2011 , 12:42 PM
wow, was quite easier than I tought, it works!
Steve, contact me in skype, I'll send you the updated sheet.
You can update the misleading description and upload the new version!

annoying that you can't edit your posts longer than 30min... sorry for tripple posting.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-24-2011 , 12:45 PM
Ok, one second

Quote:
Originally Posted by Insane_Steve
EDIT: Forgot to change description, one second.
EDIT2: Should be better worded now.

Last edited by Insane_Steve; 08-24-2011 at 12:54 PM.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
08-24-2011 , 01:03 PM
Oh, what I just saw in that moment...
I "played" a bit with the tool, and saved something in row 12 that shouldn't stand there: "Total Range you can profitable shove:" and a range behind it.
Pls delete and update!
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
09-11-2011 , 07:51 AM
Just reconfirming something, we put for the '% villain calls shove', the % of his overall range, or the % that he calls taken out of the range he opens?
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
09-14-2011 , 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jakester1288
Just reconfirming something, we put for the '% villain calls shove', the % of his overall range, or the % that he calls taken out of the range he opens?
bumpity bump
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote
09-14-2011 , 01:46 PM
It's the % of the total possible range of starting hands, not just those he opens. Missed that reply somehow, sorry.
Pooh-Bah Post: The Endgame Calculator Quote

      
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