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 09-26-2010, 11:57 AM #2 alex23 veteran   Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: 1st world obv Posts: 2,962 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Can you tell me if I'm doing this right? Say I have winrate 4ptbb/100 and sd 75ptbb/100. Then my variance is (75ptbb/100)^2=5625/10000=56ptbb/100, so that my B=4/56=about 7% of my br?
09-26-2010, 11:58 AM   #3
Emus

Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: N-Europe
Posts: 839
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 The general idea is that, if ur ROI is N times higher in game A compared to game B, you'll have to get in N^2 times more games per hr in B compared to A to make B's hourly rate bigger.
Nice explanation; this part never really sunk in with me. After reading it, it seems so obvious now that I cant believe I did not realized this fully.

Waiting for 2nd part.

09-26-2010, 12:07 PM   #4
Taediumvitae
journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 225
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Emus Waiting for 2nd part.
+1

 09-26-2010, 12:10 PM #5 Air-Bear old hand   Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,983 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Could you elaborate on: "Bad BRM can turn a winning player into a losing player"? I don't get that part.
 09-26-2010, 12:22 PM #7 Almito adept     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: ck/shoving turn in 3b pots Posts: 969 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM I think he's referring to playing too high and busting one's roll. JSpazz, I don't get the "B = ROI / variance". Isn't there something missing to relate to the size of your BR? Anyway, nice post, thanks!
09-26-2010, 12:26 PM   #8
JSpazz
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009
Location: South Europe
Posts: 6,683
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by alex23 Can you tell me if I'm doing this right? Say I have winrate 4ptbb/100 and sd 75ptbb/100. Then my variance is (75ptbb/100)^2=5625/10000=56ptbb/100, so that my B=4/56=about 7% of my br?
I forgot to tell this in part 1. B in cash games means 1ptbb divided by ur total roll and it's a clumsy number. Using my formula in part 2, R = variance / winrate * 4 = 5625 / 4 * 4 = 5625bb ~ 56 buyins. The ptbb/100 part is kinda confusing as the "100" doesn't get squared

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Air-Bear Could you elaborate on: "Bad BRM can turn a winning player into a losing player"? I don't get that part.
Check out MindOnMind and his well. I'm sure he's a great player who can beat the games but we know how it all ended.

@Almito: I guess I missed the part where I say that B is the percentage of roll u want to invest . E.g. if you have \$1k and B=0.05, you want to invest close to \$50

 09-26-2010, 12:29 PM #9 Almito adept     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: ck/shoving turn in 3b pots Posts: 969 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Ok got it! You wrote "B is the target size of the buyin", when I read it I thought about the absolute size, not a percentage of the BR. Makes sense now!
 09-26-2010, 12:39 PM #10 Get In My Poster grinder     Join Date: Jul 2010 Location: 1306 games be/losing and counting Posts: 567 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Good stuff Jspazz I had never heard of or seen the kelly strategy but it certainly caught my attention.
09-26-2010, 12:42 PM   #11
jknoema83
centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 113
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Almito Ok got it! You wrote "B is the target size of the buyin", when I read it I thought about the absolute size, not a percentage of the BR. Makes sense now!
ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 09-26-2010, 01:41 PM #12 ConcreteDonkey journeyman     Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 300 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM edit: nvm you explained, I'll just keep this anyway since it also works buyin = bankroll * roi choose the highest buyin that is less than (bankroll * roi). Once you have calculated this, make sure you are giving a realistic assessment of your roi for that specific buyin level. If you overestimate it, you are making a -EV decision. Since most people overestimate their roi you may want to go with half kelly.
 09-26-2010, 01:43 PM #13 naymlis old hand     Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,362 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM so i should be playing 500s with my 5k roll? doesn't make sense to me :P
 09-26-2010, 01:47 PM #14 ConcreteDonkey journeyman     Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 300 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Yes if you think you have 10% roi at the 500s
 09-26-2010, 02:12 PM #15 newroot grinder     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: HUSNG Posts: 410 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM hmmm
09-26-2010, 02:14 PM   #16
JSpazz
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009
Location: South Europe
Posts: 6,683
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by naymlis so i should be playing 500s with my 5k roll? doesn't make sense to me :P
if u have 10% ROI, you'll be in for a bumpy ride 1/2 Kelly is prob the best compromise between fast bankroll growth and risk of ruin, and it won't drive u insane like full Kelly. Obv all this is assuming you never withdraw. If you live from poker, you have to adjust your ROI downward as I said in part 2

 09-26-2010, 02:16 PM #17 naymlis old hand     Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,362 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM if your current roi is 10% after a big sample of \$20 games and your bankroll is \$500 you go straight to 50s or move up to 30s to find out your roi there?
09-26-2010, 02:18 PM   #18
Air-Bear
old hand

Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 1,983
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JSpazz Check out MindOnMind and his well. I'm sure he's a great player who can beat the games but we know how it all ended.
If he can beat the games he's a winner in my opinion, he just experienced negative varience. Bad BRM can make you go bust more or reduce your profit but it won't turn you into a losing player. At least that's how I see this.

 09-26-2010, 02:19 PM #19 JSpazz Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: May 2009 Location: South Europe Posts: 6,683 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM @naymlis As I said, go w 1/2 Kelly, which is ROI / variance / 2. If u have 10% ROI at \$20s, you prob have the same at \$30s, so you'd need ~\$600 to play \$30s and ~\$1k to play \$50s. Obv if u used full Kelly, you could play 50s w \$500
09-26-2010, 02:22 PM   #20
JSpazz
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2009
Location: South Europe
Posts: 6,683
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Air-Bear If he can beat the games he's a winner in my opinion, he just experienced negative varience. Bad BRM can make you go bust more or reduce your profit but it won't turn you into a losing player. At least that's how I see this.
If you bet your whole roll on every game, you're guaranteed to eventually go bust, as your expected growth is negative. When you play a lot of games w too aggressive BRM, you'll sometimes have huge winning streaks, but too often you'll end up busto. I don't know how is mindonmind doing these days (he prob rebuilt his roll), but playing \$1100s w 5 buyins as he wrote in his well is too much risk for a too small reward

 09-26-2010, 02:22 PM #21 naymlis old hand     Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 1,362 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM ok thanks
 09-26-2010, 02:23 PM #22 Air-Bear old hand   Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 1,983 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Point taken, thnx for elaborating.
09-26-2010, 02:27 PM   #23
naymlis
old hand

Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,362
Re: Pooh Bah: BRM

Quote:
 Originally Posted by JSpazz Cash: Everything written here is valid for cash as well, except you should take the winrate in ptbb/100 as ROI and (SD/100)^2 as variance. However, B is not the variable you will be after. A better formula is R = variance / ROI * 2, (that's R = variance / ROI * 4 for ½ Kelly), where R is the size of your roll in big blinds.
what is (SD/100)^2?

 09-26-2010, 02:38 PM #24 jknoema83 centurion     Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 113 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Since I grind for extra income I thought it might be helpful to try to figure this out for myself. Say I intend to play 1000 husngs in a month, and would like to withdraw 1k at the end of the month: I should drop \$1 off my roi per game (5% at 20s, 2% at 50s, 1% at 100s). If I have a 10% roi at the 20s and would like a monthly income of \$1,000, I need a BR of: BR% = (10%-5%) / 1 = 5%, so I need 20BIs, or \$400 on full Kelly, \$800 on half Kelly. If I have a 7% roi at 55 turbos, I need a BR of: BR% = (7% - 2%) / 1 = 5%, so I need 20BIs, or \$1,100 on full Kelly, \$2,200 on half Kelly. Does that sound right?
 09-26-2010, 03:20 PM #25 Regret\$ burnt out     Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 11,755 Re: Pooh Bah: BRM Nice post Jspaz. Thx for putting this together.

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