Theoretical question:

Hero 1350
Villain 1650

Villain is a very very bad player, one of the worst you ever played with.
You have a 100% accurate read on him that he always overbets his air, bottom pair, 2nd pair....
top pair and better he bets normal 2/3 or so...
he plays draws passively

you have 58o oop

board comes K 9 2 rainbow

villain bets/cbets 450 in a pot of 80

So you are 100% sure he doesnt have Kx or better...

Do you:
a) Shove and try to get him of his hand
b) Wait for a better spot

b

Let's play with the theory:

"Do the opposite of what your competitor is trying to get you to do."

A

I would rather stick my hand in a blender than try to bluff people like this. You will just be angry when he calls with what you knew he already had.

Under ur assumption a) is better but u assumption is never right in practice

...and I can agree.

Against bad player B, always.

its a theory question on behalf of:
a) whether to try and get your villain of a hand if you know hes weak
b) wait for a better spot

if i had asked this way, everyone would say b

viffers 3rd barell and phil ruffins "easy call" on high stakes poker made me open this thread tbh

U can never know 100% sure a player will ALWAYS overbet his air/2d-pairs and NEVER will overbet his tp+

with 35bb u'll usually get a better spot with atleast top pair before he has u under a 1000.
If he bets 450 orso again ull be able to take the lead. Alot of these hypothetical fish wont bluff as big when they r behind, and ur life might get easier.

anybody who says A is welcome to sit me

bluffing bad players with air is a formula to learn first hand about gambler's ruin

Seriously, you said he can have middle pair and bottom pair. Tell me, even if your read is correct, does he fold middle or bottom pair after betting that much?

It depends on how often he folds those to a shove. Some players will call with close to 100% of their air. If you don't know the freq, then obv wait.

does he fold air is a pretty good question in this regard

jeez...just take it when i say the read is 100% correct, its not the point in this story

and no, you dont know if he will call with air or bp/mp

the real question is whether would you try and bluff out a bad player of their hand if you know they have a weak hand

The bottom line is what decisions during this match will provide you with the highest expected value. Answer is b) and its b/c its so easy to rope a dope the guy when he is playing like a spazzoid if we just wait a few more hands.

Bluffing these types is suicide and while you might win one every now and then by doing this, don't be shocked when your read is correct yet they snap call with ace high or two over cards to the board that hold up to you and send you on life tilt.

pls use conventer, fe. weaktight.com or etc.
much more transparent.
and maybe you'll get more answers to your question.

Shoving is marginal at best given that we don't know enough about his tendencies to know if this will work.

He's a massive spew monkey who you have good reads on, and plays his hands face up... I think you'll find a better spot.

Wait for a better spot.

There's really no need to gamble against this guy.

Shoving with air to move him off is just marginally +EV - if at all - and you can do so much better by just waiting for a hand and making him pay you off.

You really don't want him to hero call you with Ace high here, so just wait till you have something that actually beats bottom pair and some of his mid pairs before you get it in.

if we had 0 equity when called then we need folds 70%

am i right?

Let's quickly do the math:

We have 1310 behind at the flop and our opponent bet 450 into 80.

Whenever he folds, we get 1310 + 450 + 80 = 1840, so he needs to fold 1310 / 1840 = 71%.

In reality, we probably have some ~20% equity when called, so we need something around 60-65% fold equity.

iS THIs even a serious question? Obviously B , ****stick bad players will snap you off with any two which well even have you outkicked......you got to understand something man , they don't give a f*ck. d-e-g-e-n g-a-m-b-l-e-r-s.

i think its a decent question from the OP. when i first started reading about HUSNGS i found it pretty hard to grasp that the 'wait for a better spot' is the wrong mentality. i would be like 'i am flipping at best and this guy is a fish, if i fold i stil have 1000 chips.' and would hear but you have more than enough equity to call.

but here when u do the maths it is clearly not worth the risk even if in theory it might be plus ev. in reality we wont ever be able to make such specific assumptions

however i do feel that a lot of people here wont play back vs agros and will just try to wait for a spot to get them to bluff off their stack. if u r one of these guys u r leaving a lot of money on the table imo

so basically what i am trying to say is

1. dont wait for a better spot if you know the current spot is def +EV.
2. dont be afraid to play back vs agros but choose spots where u have some equity

In the past, I've done this wrong so many times - leveled myself into thinking he can't have anything here so I can easily bluff him out.

Or thinking it's not worth the time to wait, etc.

Nowadays, I understand the math behind it - if we assume we have no equity when called, then he needs to fold about 70%, as I previously calculated here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18.../#post25352133

And that's exactly the problem - if he ever decides to hero call us with bottom pair or ace high, then we just threw away a lot of money where it's just so easy to simply wait for something halfway decent.