Overcard against river pot bet on drawy board - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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Overcard against river pot bet on drawy board

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11-11-2020 , 07:41 PM

pensodasolo

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 489

PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 27.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 23 BB
SB: 24.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K

Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, BB calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.5 BB, 2 players) 3

BB checks, Hero bets 3.75 BB, BB calls 3.75 BB

Turn: (12 BB, 2 players) 4

BB checks, Hero checks

River: (12 BB, 2 players) 2

BB bets 15 BB, Hero ?
Oppo is a reg quite aggressive. he may play this hand with a missed flush draw as well or a missed straight (9-8, would have probably shoved this one? who knows).
I think that he would have shoved 7-5. 2-5s? ( don't know, I think that calling is bad, probably fold or rarely shove), 65 and 85 make more sense.
not sure about the turn check back either

Last edited by pensodasolo; 11-11-2020 at 08:02 PM.

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11-11-2020 , 08:09 PM

HokieGreg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,726

I think most players x/r flop with any flush draw on this board, especially versus your flop sizing. I would basically rule flush draws out of any players range until shown otherwise. The only value combos that make sense are 35s, 65, 75, 85, 95, and a slowplayed 54. Only bluff combos that make sense are 89, T8, T9. I think when most regs bluff those combos, they don't put it into the overbet sizing enough. I also don't think regs turn weak showdown value like A3cc into a bluff much here.

I would fold here. You also have poor blockers. A7/K7 and especially 2 pair combos, I think calling is fine (block his value combos).

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11-11-2020 , 08:36 PM

pensodasolo

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 489

thanks, I don't actually know about his way of playing flush draws. leaving them out of the range changes everything

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11-11-2020 , 08:40 PM

HokieGreg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,726

Quote:

Originally Posted by pensodasolo

thanks, I don't actually know about his way of playing flush draws. leaving them out of the range changes everything

Yea. I think it's a very safe assumption that they are almost always getting x/r here (possible exceptions 82-A2hh)

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11-11-2020 , 09:05 PM

pensodasolo

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 489

Why do you think he will play a draw with 9 odds so radically differently from one with 8?

Edit: can't edit the first post. of course it is over pair, not overcard

Last edited by pensodasolo; 11-11-2020 at 09:13 PM.

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11-11-2020 , 11:10 PM

HokieGreg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 4,726

bc people overvalue their 2 overcard outs

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