ya but that is so on stars

if i spun a 90k/9k and got hu with 2:1 id snap offer exactly what the other players chips were worth, follow through, and be thrilled to have 66k with 0 risk

its just kind of absurd that stars doesn't have deal making for these things

i thought ive heard ipoker spins are trackable?


but ok,
if there is some reasonable min volume requirement, go ahead and give me an esitmate what % of mtt players in a leaderboard for the year at the end of the first quarter would be loser if their biggest single score were taken away, then same q for august, end of year

spins are not mtts


that ev you generate relies on 3,000x ev, most guys will have 4 to low 5 fig profit if profitable at all without their largest spin and win for a long long time in a spin leaderboard and thats why they arent trackable, that info would be poisionous

and id say theyll be far far worse than they are now maybe even dead at their one year anniverssary

SS tracks MTTs, or did they change something recently?

Hint: sarcasm

Hint: sarcasm is better when it fits

if you had to pick one to learn, mtts are the most robust game to choose to earn 40+k/year at this point*

spins are the dead opposite, or maybe just shy of DONs or something extinct

*maybe husng, but given recent rake increace threats which could easily resurface in a year... id say mtts

PLO is also a good one.

If that happens, then it means the recs aren't interested in the game either, so it doesn't really matter all that much.

DoN type games have been popular then died out, but the thing is, if the popularity dying out kills a game, that's fine. If rake or inherent structure kills the game, that's a much larger issue isn't it? Roulette versus 7 card stud HUSNGs. They're both not going to be a game you'd recommend someone to learn, no profit, but no profit in them for two very different reasons.

My MTT comparisons should still be valid. I don't see many Spin graphs (the ppl that win at them don't really want any other regs in the games, want to freeze the game state as much as they can), but many that I've seen, one win isn't the difference between profit or not. I'm sure you can find plenty of Spin graphs that rely on one profitable game though. But you don't think you can do that for 3 months of results in MTTs either?

Neither profession should ever have to rely on 3 months of profits. We recommend people in HUSNGs to have 6-12 months of living expenses + a healthy bankroll. HUSNGs are less volatile than Spins on average. Many won't take that advice, they will play far more aggressively, but that just makes discipline and bankroll management more valuable of a skill in Spins.

MTTs are one of, if not the most profitable game because they are popular too.

ya plo probably edges out mtts pretty easily

when i mean dead i mean ungrindable (for anyone currently finding them worthwhile)

the degen factor of "$xx,xxx in minues" isnt going to go away, but a saturation point of regs means nobody can expect to win, give it 3 months if someone posts a sick ev+volume brag and they will probably be close to that saturation point

those are the problems with spins, they are raked to the point that only the very good players are going to beat them for enough EV to overcome the rake and the inherent variance, and even then, they rely on luck to get any decent real dollar returns (so they are likely not high enough stakes to be worthwhile for a player with that skill level)

every person on a 20 player total profit ss leaderboard for their spin buyin is going to have popped off the 3,000x and their graph will be either negative or barely positive trending (because thats how spin graphs work)

its not a question of whether i can find someone with a graph for 3 months of mtts that is in the black due to only one score, its whether you can set out today to play spins and have an extremely high confidence you will have made $xx,xxx in 3 months, and whether you can repeat that in a year (you can do this in mtts, plo, husngs)


anyways my original post about SS implied that if spins were tracked and the leaderboard was there for all to see, it would hinder the popularity of the game because it would look like the only way to win at spins was to get lucky and win a 3,000 (which is true for the vast majority of players that would consider registering them)

I am curious about the $30 level spin and go's. I'd like to know what the top 5% levels would be for win rate. Obviously 33.3% is at even. Can between 36 and 37% be reached by a top player? Also, how many of these can one play in a day without going insane? Is 400 per day realistic by 4 or 5 tabling and maintaining enough edge to win between 35.5 and 37%? (im assuming 37% is close to impossible)

The reason I ask, is for a few reasons, the most obvious one being 122,000 of $30 spinners a year gives you Supernova Elite status and that's $100k worth of VPP and FPP bonuses right there.

Now, if you play 122,000 of these a year, you should get about 19 cracks at the top 3 multipliers, but let's say for arguments sake you're the unluckiest person in the world and get NONE of the top 3 multipliers, and since the other multipliers are frequent enough that you should get close to what those are, lets pretend you get exactly whats expected at the bottom 5 pay levels. 35.5% win rate will get you a loss of about $30k (before you get your 100k in bonuses), 36% will get you a pre bonus profit of $20k, and .365 will get you $72k in earnings before your bonuses. This is all without a single dollar at the top 3 levels (which at a 36% win rate has an expectation of $75k per 122,000 games).

I'm assuming the play is very poor and filled with sub par players, probably a higher rate of bad players than at any other discipline. I'd be very curious to know what % win rate a top player can achieve at 122,000 (or even 50,000) games.

Hi I'm playing spin and gos and when I try to stack my tables everything gos out of wack because the jackpot spinning thing. For example : I load 4 games then 4 straight after that, the first games are working stacked but then once the next 4 games load the tables go back and forth couse the new ones have started. I hope you understand and can help me because I can't play over 4 tables because of this. I have put attention to active table etc but it's all jumbled. Thanks.

Your point is absolutely correct (minus the hindering new players part I believe). It's also correct about MTTs though. Any form of poker, really. Not even 10% of players win I think? And some that do just run good, right? Yet many still want to try it, for fun and/or because they believe they can be one of the top 10% or so.

Many restaurants fail too, and new businesses, and medical school hopefuls, and so on.

This format is so bad, pure luck and waiting for the big ones, I'm done with them.

Hey, yeah Stars wont honor those deals as they pointed out. But imo you should still report him to stars and mention he does that stuff on purpose. If they at least provoke his chat priviliges something is already won.

And as Pavels pointed out - yeah, dont make deals with unknowns, but this guy is proably scamming enough more fish than regs so thats not good imo.

What is this SpinWiz thing?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-FBgrgJh4k

It says you do not have to play against other players also using SpinWiz? How is the software able to do that?

I agree

Spin and go's are not beatable in the long run, you can win 33 to 35% of them by playing optimally, but if out of 10 spin and go's you win 3 or 4 with a 2x multiplier and lose the ones with a higher multiplier due to the variance you are -EV. Also on larger samples, you have no impact on the random prize pool, if out of 1000 games played the 350 you won were mainly 2X prize pools you are losing money

And then we haven't added the ridiculous high rake yet

They are only profitable if you are a luckbox who hits the jackpot table in less than 5000 games or if you are a lucky plumber from Russia or Ukraine

What about if you win 38% long term?

^ u can't

u no husla

he is hussler tho????

Can variance change the ev? Or are you saying that variance will change results

I think I can

Variance does not change your expected value. You need to get a better grasp on what expected value is. Also, if you are committed to play a lot of these during the course of a calendar year, VPP and FPP bonuses will make the rake less than 3%. Using $30 spinners as an example, 60,000 per year will get you approx. 40k in rakeback, and 122,000 (needed for SupElite) will get you approx. 100k in rake back. Another thing to grasp is that bottom 5 payout multipliers make up 97.89% of your expected payback. Hence, you are not as reliant on hitting the top 3 levels as you think.

If one can 4 table these and maintain a high edge, 200 a day is certainly doable, and 400 a day can be done for the maniac grinder who wants to do it for 15 hrs a day. If someone can play at least 60,000 spinners a year ($30), it would be nearly impossible to lose money(including rakeback) if you win 35% of your games. If you can win 35.5%, you will make a nice profit, and if you're good enough to win at a 36% rate (if that's even possible, which I have no idea) you can make some good money, and this is all predicated on not winning a cent from the top 3 levels, which you would have to be EXTREMELY unlucky for that to happen, at least with the 120x and the 240x. The 3600x is a crap shoot, which you might see 0,1 2, or even 3 during the course of the year, but while it's a nice payday, it's not vital to one's success.

Now, all this is good in theory, but since I live in the US, I have never played a spin and go, and I have no earthly idea what type of win rates are possible. It's simple math to know you're 33.3% with no edges positive or negative, and anything less then 35% can be expensive to find out how well you can do in a year. Even if you can achieve between 35 and 36%, you would essentially need to have 1 years worth of living expenses set aside, cause you'd need to leave that bankroll alone till you get the year end bonuses. And does anyone really want to play 122,000 spin and go's a year to make 100k-200k? Still, as a numbers guy, I am somewhat intrigued by what the top level win rates can be at the $30 spin games with at least 25,000 games played to insure the rate is accurate.

Let's face it, this is one discipline where you can get as many soft games as you want. No lobby sitting for 15+ minutes or reg wars with a table of grinders over and over.

Its a tool for registration and session management.

You dont have to because it forms a queue of its users releasing them into the games one by one. But you can still be seated with anyone you wish by using the sitlist function.

Can someone help me with this, I posted before about C net adjusted and chips graphs which is more accurate for this format? My chip line is more normal than the c net adjusted so do I dismiss the cnet and only worry about chips? Saw in bughusla thread that he went by chips. Also anyone know how to make ev winrate % on pt4? I have no idea. Thanks.

I was winning 37.5% (heavily below cEV) and had that ******ed graph! 38% won't even cut it if you run bad in the multipliers...

Wow that's bad then.
Do you only use chip ev as a guide?