Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Good2BThru
I agree
Spin and go's are not beatable in the long run, you can win 33 to 35% of them by playing optimally, but if out of 10 spin and go's you win 3 or 4 with a 2x multiplier and lose the ones with a higher multiplier due to the variance you are -EV. Also on larger samples, you have no impact on the random prize pool, if out of 1000 games played the 350 you won were mainly 2X prize pools you are losing money
And then we haven't added the ridiculous high rake yet
They are only profitable if you are a luckbox who hits the jackpot table in less than 5000 games or if you are a lucky plumber from Russia or Ukraine
Variance does not change your expected value. You need to get a better grasp on what expected value is. Also, if you are committed to play a lot of these during the course of a calendar year, VPP and FPP bonuses will make the rake less than 3%. Using $30 spinners as an example, 60,000 per year will get you approx. 40k in rakeback, and 122,000 (needed for SupElite) will get you approx. 100k in rake back. Another thing to grasp is that bottom 5 payout multipliers make up 97.89% of your expected payback. Hence, you are not as reliant on hitting the top 3 levels as you think.
If one can 4 table these and maintain a high edge, 200 a day is certainly doable, and 400 a day can be done for the maniac grinder who wants to do it for 15 hrs a day. If someone can play at least 60,000 spinners a year ($30), it would be nearly impossible to lose money(including rakeback) if you win 35% of your games. If you can win 35.5%, you will make a nice profit, and if you're good enough to win at a 36% rate (if that's even possible, which I have no idea) you can make some good money, and this is all predicated on not winning a cent from the top 3 levels, which you would have to be EXTREMELY unlucky for that to happen, at least with the 120x and the 240x. The 3600x is a crap shoot, which you might see 0,1 2, or even 3 during the course of the year, but while it's a nice payday, it's not vital to one's success.
Now, all this is good in theory, but since I live in the US, I have never played a spin and go, and I have no earthly idea what type of win rates are possible. It's simple math to know you're 33.3% with no edges positive or negative, and anything less then 35% can be expensive to find out how well you can do in a year. Even if you can achieve between 35 and 36%, you would essentially need to have 1 years worth of living expenses set aside, cause you'd need to leave that bankroll alone till you get the year end bonuses. And does anyone really want to play 122,000 spin and go's a year to make 100k-200k? Still, as a numbers guy, I am somewhat intrigued by what the top level win rates can be at the $30 spin games with at least 25,000 games played to insure the rate is accurate.
Let's face it, this is one discipline where you can get as many soft games as you want. No lobby sitting for 15+ minutes or reg wars with a table of grinders over and over.