** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread ** - Page 36 - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

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Page 36 of 306

First

16 26 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 46 56 86 136 236

Last

11-03-2014 , 02:08 PM

#876

Des_Astar

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 667

Quote:

Originally Posted by coffeeyay

fail. luck has no memory, he has a 1 in 100k to hit next one.

Whats the chance of NOT hitting one after grinding exactly 100k matches?

Quote

11-03-2014 , 02:36 PM

#877

Qlka

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 111

Quote:

Originally Posted by Des_Astar

Whats the chance of NOT hitting one after grinding exactly 100k matches?

36.8%

Quote

11-03-2014 , 02:37 PM

#878

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

36.79% chance of not seeing a 3000 multiplier in 100k games
13.53% chance of not seeing a 3000 multiplier in 200k games
1.1% chance of not seeing a 3000 multiplier in 450k games lol

Quote

11-03-2014 , 02:55 PM

#879

Qlka

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 111

Quote

11-03-2014 , 03:23 PM

#880

callme

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,676

^^Thanks ! can you just post the formula again (i know someone posted it before its quite useful though)

Quote

11-03-2014 , 03:40 PM

#881

Qlka

centurion

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 111

1-(1-P)^N, where

P - probability of hitting
N - no. of games

Quote

11-03-2014 , 03:58 PM

#882

Des_Astar

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 667

Thanks for the odds.^

So a solid grinder could play ~100 matches daily and after 3 years he still has a 36,8% chance of not even playing (let alone wining)one.

Thats so demoralizing.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:03 PM

#883

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Solid grinder and 100 games per day? Does not compute.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:16 PM

#884

Des_Astar

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 667

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz

Solid grinder and 100 games per day? Does not compute.

"Solid grinder" for me means quality grinding for high ROI over quantity (language barrier problems).

How many tables do you play simultaneously? How many games per hour?

I am averaging 20-25 games/hour by 3-4 tabling focusing more at higher multipliers.

At this rate it will take me 3-6 years to hit one. Jesus....

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:21 PM

#885

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

I just derp around I don't consider myself a solid grinder because of uni. If I was still fulltime poker player though I would consider 100 games per day a low amount tbf.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:25 PM

#886

callme

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by Des_Astar

How do you 3-4 table and get only 20-25 games... Shouldnt it be closer to 30-35-40?

6-7 mins/game?

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:27 PM

#887

Des_Astar

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 667

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz

I just derp around I don't consider myself a solid grinder because of uni. If I was still fulltime poker player though I would consider 100 games per day a low amount tbf.

You can still save your life by quiting Uni

BTW the fact that i can recall you having trouble grinding 1000 HUSNGS reg speeds per month before years makes me feel too old.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:27 PM

#888

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by callme

How do you 3-4 table and get only 20-25 games... Shouldnt it be closer to 30-35-40?

6-7 mins/game?

Cog dis style seems quite effective but games last quite a bit longer in my experience.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:29 PM

#889

spamz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 9,207

Quote:

Originally Posted by Des_Astar

You can still save your life by quiting Uni

BTW the fact that i can recall you having trouble grinding 1000 HUSNGS reg speeds per month before years makes me feel too old.

You mean turbo's? Never really played reg speeds.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:29 PM

#890

Des_Astar

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 667

Quote:

Originally Posted by callme

How do you 3-4 table and get only 20-25 games... Shouldnt it be closer to 30-35-40?

6-7 mins/game?

Yea its 2 times slower than HU. Also the fact that i end up 1vs1 most of the time does the trick.

Quote

11-03-2014 , 04:52 PM

#891

callme

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2006 Posts: 2,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by spamz

Cog dis style seems quite effective but games last quite a bit longer in my experience.

I only have 29 ITM so that might be a reason for my speedy games

Quote

11-03-2014 , 07:20 PM

#892

onesteptheface

twostepdatazz

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 622

Quote:

Originally Posted by zorzak

http://spinandgopro.com/

She crushes them

Wow, she mops the floor with her competition.

Quote

11-04-2014 , 05:11 PM

#893

RaiseAgainst

adept

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,142

Why are the top jackpot prizepools consistently advertised in €, by the way? afaik there are only $ spingos, or am I wrong?

Quote

11-05-2014 , 06:40 AM

#894

emotionx

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,555

stars seem to make ****load of ******ed mistakes lately. Like hypers being listed as 192$ (turbo rake) prizepool instead 195$ at 100$ hypers on pokerstars 7...

thats what happens when you try to rush for the gold I guess. Havent seen so many software misswrites ever...

Quote

11-05-2014 , 08:44 AM

#895

NoMeansYes_

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 3,509

On .uk they show the spin advertisement as £. So they're have "1 tourneys with a prize pool of £108,00"

+1 at how amazing it is to see how many small mistakes they've made recently, not even with the rake changes. I would ****ing love to hear some insight on how the company is operating differently from people inside Pokerstars since Amaya took over.

Quote

11-05-2014 , 08:57 AM

#896

eddymitchel

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 6,761

impossible in nvg they said they must have prepared for months before amaya even came. who are you to pretend it has been rushed

Quote

11-06-2014 , 09:09 AM

#897

22riverrat22

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 2,447

Quote:

Originally Posted by Max Cut

EV chips won per game = total chips won / total games.

Rake is 0.04 for $7+ games, 0.05 for $3, and 0.07 for $1.

Breaking it down:
Expected ROI = ((expected win rate * expected prize pool buyins) - 1 buyin) * 100

Expected win rate = (EV chips won per game + 500) / 1500

Expected prize pool buyins = 3 - 3 * rake = (1 - rake) * 3

Example:
Rake = 0.05
EV chips per game = 40

Expected prize pool buyins
= (1 - rake) * 3
= (1 - 0.05) * 3
= .95 * 3
= 2.85

Expected win rate
= (40 + 500) / 1500 = 0.36

Expected ROI
= (0.36 * 2.85 - 1) * 100
= 2.6% (see note)

Note: This is for a purely winner-take-all format, so actual expected ROIs will differ for .com Spin&Go, being very slightly lower for expected winners. For the example above, expected ROI will actually be 3.61% rather than 3.68%.

is that updated for the new structure correctly?

did they make a bad game even worse by flattening winrates substantially for slight winners, pocket the difference, and reduce the frequency of significant jackpots that get cashed out, lol?

Quote

11-06-2014 , 11:49 AM

#898

Max Cut

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by 22riverrat22

is that updated for the new structure correctly?

That looks correctly adjusted from 4% rake to 5% rake.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 22riverrat22

did they make a bad game even worse by flattening winrates substantially for slight winners, pocket the difference, and reduce the frequency of significant jackpots that get cashed out, lol?

I don't know; I suspect they're worse overall for volume winners. There's different ways of looking at it. I heard several people trying to do a sort of worst-case analysis by ignoring the top-tier payouts (which I don't necessarily agree with) since the happen very infrequently. If you ignore the top-3 tiers, the new structure might be arguably similar even with the higher rake.

Last edited by Max Cut; 11-06-2014 at 11:59 AM.

Quote

11-06-2014 , 02:29 PM

#899

Ruffy166

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 261

I've been crushing these games recently. Ran my $150 up to $1600 in the last 2 weeks and never had above a 10x playing the $3/$7/$15. I don't think the rake is that bad in this situation because everyone is absolutely awful at these games right now and I don't see any regs at the 15's.