Quote:
Originally Posted by cuat$2Spins
Most everyone underestimates variance.
If bad runs can go on longer than we think… Guess what? Good runs can too.
Don’t be one of the many people reading this right now who give in to their delusions. Delusions that they’re unlucky.
I am definitionally unlucky. You can say that luck doesn’t exist in the long run, sure, but it surely does in the short to medium term. I have not done it in some time, but in every format I have played, when I chart my performance against possible outcomes ie variance, I have always been in the bottom 3rd of the chart.
I have played 100s of thousands of cash game hands over several years. In all of that time I have had 1 month where I ran above EV. Ironically, that is also the only month where I had a negative EV. I think I should have lost $100ish but only lost like $50. The same goes for spins and MTT…never had a losing month in EV but never had a month where winnings were anywhere close to EV.
So definitionally, I am unlucky. The question is how the luck affects play: it doesn’t seem to affect me much based on my cumulative EV.