Spins are not getting any better. No rakeback and less fish every single year on stars. Stables dont care and add more and more players to the lowest of stakes. Euro sites have been an option but sites like winamax have basically opened their borders. They are filled with regs aswell. Bots are an issue aswell.

Third party tool restrictions and no more HHs are no solution. You need a hud in reg vs reg games to have any edge at all. Im sure most sites will follow and winrates will drop further.

But how much did you lose?

I guess thats how you get 20k comments

Yet I think I have less negative comments in my 20k posts than you do in 41.

Go do something else with your time, all your posts on this site are about how the RNG is rigged, your 500 sample losing streak is especially unfair, games are soft, then several months later games are dead.

Well thats true. Just not going well at all lately. As u wish seeking my way out.

Ok, so for today alone my All-In Equity is -6500...yes minus 6500 and that is over 53 matches.

I really have no idea what is going on...why my EV has dropped so massively. It is really disheartening. I don't care about the money that much and my actual win/loss rate isn't all that bad (32%itm) but it is a full on grind.

The big problem is that I am playing against maniacs who jam all-in on the flop while I am not making strong hands. So, I flop high pair with a straight draw, bet, then get jammed all-in for 400 chips. Every time I have called I get beat by a higher kicker, higher pocket pairs, 2 pairs, trips etc etc etc. But I cannot just go folding every hand in which I flop high pair. What the hell do you do in these circumstances?

Normally the answer would be to narrow the range and play only good hands. Ok, but i'm not getting the good hands and, when I do, they just fold. I am at a lost as to what to do here and why suddenly...over the last 200 or so tournaments...I went from a cEV of 45-50 to a negative all-in equity....

forgive me if this has come up before but...

is it me or do multiple pocket pairs come up a lot more frequently in spin and gos as they do in regular online poker? It already seems to happen way beyond reasonableness in online all together - where 2 or 3 people get pockets in one hand - but it seems worse on Spin and Gos. It seems like every time I go all-in with pocket pairs at least one of the other 2 has them as well.

Other things that seem to happen more often: board straights or 4 card straights, flop 4-5-6, or 7-8-9 etc., flop coming all as one suit, and the most frequent of all...a pair on the flop. I understand it is online and a hyper game so we see more hands but these things just seem beyond normal.

Had a nice little freak play just now in HU. Had 9Qc and flopped a flush draw. Turn gave me the flush so I go all in...villain has KJc and beats me. In all, of the 7 of the 9 cards dealt were clubs.

If a little variance has you thinking spins are rigged, they definitely aren't the right format for you.

Define rigged?

All I am saying is the cards seem to come out differently on the different poker sites (they all seem to have their own patterns) and even within different games on the same poker site.

Variance...ok. Break it down for me. What is the variance of multiple pocket pairs hitting in a 3 player hand, and what would be the standard deviation be? Bust the math out.

I've never said that I do not understand variance and my comments on here seem to suggest that I don't worry about variance...I have been worried that my cEV has been dropping and wondering whether it is play related or not...I've never worried about how much I win or lose.

That the shuffling algorithm isn't actually random and hand + board distributions occur differently than they should.

Right, this would fall under "rigged."

No thanks, there's a thread dedicated to deal-rigging discussion in another subforum and it's not really an appropriate topic in this thread. That said, the math on figuring out 3C2 pocket pair distribution doesn't seem difficult in principle.

Your comments here seem to suggest that you don't understand variance -- rather than realizing that you've just run into more pocket pairs than usual for a bit, you're fabricating this theory about how the deal in spins must be rigged a certain way.

I would advice you to switch formats for a few days, just until you get your self-confidence back on. If you're playing low buy in levels, then HU hypers would be a great option... the reduction of variance should feel very pleasant.

How, exactly, do my comments suggest that I do not understand variance? What, exactly, is it that I said that would signify this? It is not, exactly, a difficult concept to understand. I observe a out of order distribution in the way the cards are dealt. That does not deny the existence of variance or its effects on the cards. Two things can be true at once...variance can be at play and something else is also going on.

As for rigged...I didn't say rigged because I did not imply there is anything fraudulent in what is happening.

Why would I switch? The outcomes of the tournaments do not concern me. I go through stages where I win 40-45% and other spans where I win 22-25%. I don't get high during the high points nor low in the low points. My goal is to try to get a good cEV.

On that end, I wonder what goes into making the All-In equity figure. From my reading, PokerTracker seems to suggest that it is simply the % of the all-in pot that you would win based on the strength of your hand vs your opponents at the time the All-in call was made.

Ok, so why is it that I have a tournament where I had an All-In Equity of 78.59% and the only all in was for 310 chips yet my Adjusted All-In Equity is -215 chips.

How can I have a positive All-In Equity of nearly 79% yet come out with an expectation of -215 chips? What goes into these adjusted calculations?

AH okay, that's great then. It just sounded from your series of posts that you were in meltdown mode after experiencing a period of negative variance. Glad to hear that's not the case!

No no, not at all. Not gonna say it is not annoying and I don't let the odd profanity go when I get a dude down to his last 200 chips then get demoilished by bad beat after bad beat. But it doesn't keep me up at night and I am really only worried about cEV.

So, today I have positive all-in equity of 52% yet I had an adjusted all-in equity of -5900. Any idea how I can get the money in good at a rate of 52% yet chips I should have won from that is -5900. How can i be expected to lose chips when I am +50%?

The all-in equity percentage stat only considers the hands where you get it in before river, but the adjusted all-in equity also includes all other hands. Lets say you lose 400 chips without going all-in before river so your equity percentage stat is undefined/zero because you haven't been all-in, but your adjusted equity is at -400 because you have lost 400 chips. So you finally get your last 100 chips in with 52% equity and now the percentage is at 52% (arithmetic mean of the sample size) and adjusted is at -396. The reason for your results is most likely that you lose a lot of chips with non-AI hands and then finally get it in as a marginal favorite where it doesn't matter that much anymore.

Ok, well that explains it. Reading the Pokertracker info online makes it sound like it is all about all-ins...doesn't say anything about how it adjusts...so thanks.

I had a particularly rough day yesterday getting killed with nuttish hands when not all-in. In like a 2 hour span I lost x with trips, 2x with a full house, 3x with a straight and 1x with a flush. Hard to get going when you are losing those hands. But, c'est la vie. Maybe I need to work on my reads but its hard to fold those hands when you've burnt most of your chips in the hand.

you are too obsessed with stats. they don't mean much over a short period. cEv is the best stat to judge how you are performing but you need 1-2k of games, maybe more, to get some idea of how you stand.

i'd advise you to download SwongSim which is a variance calculator for Spin & Gos. you can get it in the free software thread. run some simulations and see just how badly it's possible to run

Hey guys, i just got x5 prizepool on 100s spin.
It seems the prizes now are x2, x3, x5...but pokerstars.com doesnt say anything about this change.
Anyone knows something about this change and how will this affect us?

I just got a .75 prize in a .25 spin and go when like an hour ago it would have been a 1.00 prize. I looked up the info page and, sure enough, the prize pools have been changed. Instead of going .50, 1.00, 1.50, 2.50 it now goes .50, .75, 1.25 and 2.50.

Basically they seem to have reduced the 2nd and 3rd prizes by .25

It seems like the rake is the same so it just seems like a shuffle in the prize pools to me.

Hey, yea I noticed this aswell on other limits...the multiplicators are now 3x, 5x instead of 4x and 6x

Im no expert but I think in order to maintain the ROI of the past, we now need to achieve way higher chipev.

This doesn't seem true, seems pretty similar according to swongsim. Very slightly less variance on both ends of the spectrum.

Oh, I didn't realize that the chances of hitting that multiplier changed accordingly. Sorry for that

I would imagine ROI would only be affected by either higher rake or dramatically decreased odds at hitting the multipliers...

Hey Silky28,

I would suggest you to not judge anything in your poker game for such a small sample. You would need atleast 3k+ games to make a fair judgment how good are you doing in the games based on your c/ev.

For example if you have 1000 games with 50 c/ev that would mean you have won 50k chips. But if you drop 2000 chips in the next 100 games - which is few coolers and can happen anytime, you will have 48k/1,1k= 43.6 c/ev now.
Now if you have 50 c/ev for 10k games that would mean you won 500k chips. And if you loose 2000 chips in the next 100 games your final chip ev would be 49.3 - less than a chip difference or 0.15% ev roi difference.

SO judjing or following your c/ev for 50-100 games is basicly you focusing on that

Imagine how much wrong asumptions and negative emotions you will have if you check your c/ev on every 10-20 games. That would be 666 refreshes of your graph for 10k games all injecting emotions in your mindset.
Rather than that I would recomend you to mark every spot you doubt about during your session. And cooldown and warmup with analysing all this hands. Than mark them as reviewed or unmark them in your pt4.And try to cover them all till the end of a month or week. Use softwares for your analyses and build or study the ranges during this process. GL