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Old 12-04-2018, 08:29 AM   #6851
coon74
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Anyone who makes 60 chips at $7s is at least as strong as most of those who earn 100 chips at $0.25s, just because regs tend to use 50+ BI BRM in order not to have to move down all the time, so moving up 3 limits is usually correlated with ample experience and hence skill improvement.

Besides, the population tendencies of $0.25s and $7s are different, and someone with a strong fish game but a weak reg game would do fine at $0.25s but would have to watch zzzTilt videos or something to adapt to $7s regs. (Skier's DB is probably an overkill for $7s.)

I'm seeing the voyage to $0.25s as an opportunity to hone the fish game

Quote:
Originally Posted by gdaviezz View Post
you can probably get 90+ cev at $7s and the players there are not much different to 25c players
Wut?

Variance reduction pools don't serve $0.25 players but obviously serve $3+ regs. From my very limited knowledge of staking offers, some stables accept applicants who're proven winners at $3+ but don't accept $0.25 regs unless the latter agree for a contract at least a year long, so $7 games must be more abundant in staked regs than $0.25s that are abundant in Eastern Europeans but mostly very disinhibited recreational ones.

OK, I think I've just been levelled, gg.

And to clarify, as a Leatherass disciple (but a ton lazier than him), I always focus on the edges that I can have right now in my current development state, not longterm prospects, as I'm still rather seeing myself as a Spin Max reg in the long run, just I want to avoid $7 and possibly $15 Spin Max because their payouts are way too often winner-take-all and so leaving little edge for me, and am tempted to substitute them for €5-10 HexaPro when the time is right, so I still need some HU skill.

Last edited by coon74; 12-04-2018 at 08:54 AM.
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Old 12-04-2018, 07:06 PM   #6852
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by shiftizzle2k9 View Post
What do you think is reasonable for $7s? I always thought 60-80Cev was decent.
i think so too, top regs can achieve more though.
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Old 12-04-2018, 07:13 PM   #6853
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
Anyone who makes 60 chips at $7s is at least as strong as most of those who earn 100 chips at $0.25s, just because regs tend to use 50+ BI BRM in order not to have to move down all the time, so moving up 3 limits is usually correlated with ample experience and hence skill improvement.

Besides, the population tendencies of $0.25s and $7s are different, and someone with a strong fish game but a weak reg game would do fine at $0.25s but would have to watch zzzTilt videos or something to adapt to $7s regs. (Skier's DB is probably an overkill for $7s.)


All these tough 7s regs.

Someone with a "strong" fish game (knowing the rules is more or less enough) will absolutely obliterate 7s, without having a clue how to play regs.

Last edited by kobmish; 12-04-2018 at 07:14 PM. Reason: damn, these days only coоn can make me post on 2p2
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Old 12-04-2018, 08:52 PM   #6854
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Admittedly, I'm out of touch with the tendencies of 3-max spins, but there's no way $7 spin regs can be weaker on average than $7 spinmax ones were a year ago.
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:08 AM   #6855
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by shiftizzle2k9 View Post
What do you think is reasonable for $7s? I always thought 60-80Cev was decent.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohly View Post
i think so too, top regs can achieve more though.
I'm aware that current and former HU players tend to have inflated self-expectations because of the very nature of HU, but I'm more interested in average or median EVs than top ones

According to Freeq, between late October and late November, the average cEV of the $7 regs of a Russian pool was merely 55.7

The current $7 pool report (from Nov 26 to Dec 4) is showing about the same: 60.5 cEV/g over 9093 games (so the true avg EV is 55-65 with 70% confidence).

Note that those members at least know what a spin pool is, which means they know more than just the rules of the game Moreover, most of them had had a winning sample prior to the admission to the pool (unproven winners have to put up a security deposit).
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:09 AM   #6856
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
I'm aware that current and former HU players tend to have inflated self-expectations because of the very nature of HU, but I'm more interested in average or median EVs than top ones

According to Freeq, between late October and late November, the average cEV of the $7 regs of a Russian pool was merely 55.7

The current $7 pool report (from Nov 26 to Dec 4) is showing about the same: 60.5 cEV/g over 9093 games (so the true avg EV is 55-65 with 70% confidence).

Note that those members at least know what a spin pool is, which means they know more than just the rules of the game Moreover, most of them had had a winning sample prior to the admission to the pool (unproven winners have to put up a security deposit).
those guys are also probably playing a boatload of tables tho, iv been playing some 7s recently trying to find the love for poker again and im very sure that 80-90cev is very maintainable, the "regs" there are basically playing like fish except there preflop ranges are a little better
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Old 12-05-2018, 05:12 AM   #6857
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Totally depends on your skill, but also your approach. If you're just two tabling ofc you are way more likely to achieve like 80+ chips. If you play like 6+ tables -what alot of grinders do at these limits, in order to have an acceptable hourly- you are probably not going to make more than 70 chips.
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:57 AM   #6858
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

^ With the current lack of rakeback, 6-tabling is a poor choice, if not suicidal, for the vast majority or regs, those who don't have Freeq-like concentration.

Besides, bankroll building requires emphasis on the ROI, rather than the hourly winrate*. The latter only becomes chief when one reaches $100s.

* Roughly speaking, what I'm maximising according to the Kelly criterion is the Sharpe ratio, which is proportional to the ROI (ex life expenses) times the square root of volume. So, if I have a 1.5 times bigger ROI 3-tabling than 6-t, then I should 3-t despite the hourly being 1.33 times lower (or even 2-t when on the verge of moving down). Note that I'm not even taking concept learning into account, which is faster when 3-t.

Last edited by coon74; 12-05-2018 at 09:15 AM.
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Old 12-05-2018, 12:41 PM   #6859
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

80 chips per game is easily achievable. If I can make 85 cev while playing 5 tables on average then most people who know a flush beats a straight can achieve it too. I have 52cev at 15s over around 12k games so I'm far from a crusher.

I think you're overcomplicating it c00n74.

This year
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Old 12-05-2018, 01:27 PM   #6860
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Congrats!

Maybe I'm balancing too much, should overfold to turn and river raises, etc.
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Old 12-05-2018, 03:58 PM   #6861
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

whats the standard deviation number in chip ev for spins ? need it for some swongsim work.
cheers
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Old 12-05-2018, 04:15 PM   #6862
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by tittenmaus69 View Post
whats the standard deviation number in chip ev for spins ? need it for some swongsim work.
cheers
450 i think
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Old 12-05-2018, 08:58 PM   #6863
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

GL at 0'25s
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Old 12-06-2018, 12:08 AM   #6864
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Thanks , but next time, cast the good run spell on the $1 shots too
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Old 12-06-2018, 01:04 AM   #6865
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by McGee View Post
I think you're overcomplicating it c00n74.
Pretty sure I've been saying this repeatedly for the past couple years now

The average reg at 7s may have 55 cev, but the average reg at 7s is also just terrible at poker (or they wouldn't be a 7s reg). Pretty sure that with some work most people can be an above-average 7s reg or get by at 15s (which imo is a sweet spot for a lot of guys given the rake decrease there).

From my experience coaching a number of guys, regs at 3s or 7s might know enough about the game to not openjam every hand and to fold a lot when fish x/r river, but they also just tend to do a lot of random **** for no good reason. Somewhat basically competent people tend to start showing up around 15s, not 3s.
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Old 12-06-2018, 06:49 AM   #6866
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Speaking of $7 regs who are terrible at poker, I have recently been playing again after 3 years out the game (5 tabling $7s for a disappointing 57Cev after 2k games) and I'm looking to improve. Honestly I am kinda clueless so there is a lot for me to work on. I have a few questions if anybody could share their wisdom, but I know poker information is more closely guarded these days

Is 57Cev is roughly 4.5% evroi pre rakeback? I think i heard the rule that every 5 chips post breakeven is 1% evroi (35BE for 7% rake at stars). I think this figure discounts the top three prizes, but is there a CeV for BE for only the bottom 3 prizes? I didn't hit any 25x and 6 10x in 2k games, so id like to know what I need to do to be profitable without the higher multipliers. My $ev for this sample was actually slightly negative despite the winning Cev, I assume this is just a result of bad prize pools and should not be Much of a concern?

What would be the best way to study and revise, within reason considering the stakes? Obviously piosolver is a bit overkill to beat 7s, and there is very little contempory content for spins, so it seems my options are:

Join a stable
Watch players such as freeq on twitch and try to emulate their play
Revise using my PT database (e.g I am losing chips from SB and I know it is possible to win, so obv a strategy adjustment is needed)

Are there any other good methods for the lower stakes?

Some quicker Qs; it would seem that playing NASH an vs bb when button folds would be even better than normal HU play as we don't have the advantage of postflop position, however, is there any impact in terms of card removal from button folding improving BBs hand? Or is the impact so small as to be negligible?

Thanks in advance!
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:03 AM   #6867
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

roi = ((500+chip winrate)/ 1500) * (100% - rake %) * 3 -1

with 0.0094 or almost 1% of your roi going to the top 3 jackpots

so 57 Cev at 7s with 7% rake is about 3.6% roi with jackpots and 2.6% without

check swongsim to see how much effective rake is if u only get the bottom 3 multipliers
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:04 AM   #6868
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
The average reg at 7s may have 55 cev, but the average reg at 7s is also just terrible at poker (or they wouldn't be a 7s reg).
The problem is that they don't have EV ROIs below -20%, and the sum of the 3 entrants' ROIs is -21% by definition in a $7. Good regs' ROIs are lower at 7s than below just because there are relatively fewer total donks in the pool, while the rake is only 1% point lower.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
but they also just tend to do a lot of random **** for no good reason.
<---

Last edited by coon74; 12-06-2018 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 12-06-2018, 10:35 AM   #6869
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
Pretty sure that with some work most people can be an above-average 7s reg or get by at 15s (which imo is a sweet spot for a lot of guys given the rake decrease there).
Lol at your overestimation of the effect of the rake decrease.

For 3-max spins, the soft spot is surely $7 because the fish ratio seems to drop sharply from 7s to 15s, though I have to redo that study now that the Spin & Goal rakebackfest is gone and there's no substitute that would poach regs from 7s; I expect the ratios to be closer now, and I understand that such a study gives a much lower accuracy than Spinlyzer used to.

Anyone with a large DB can make an 'all players report' in PT4 listing the Tournaments stat (the number of tourneys in the DB where a certain opponent appeared), aggregate regs' game counts and divide the sum by twice the total number of games (or 2/3 of the sum of the game counts in the bottom summary line) to obtain the reg ratio.

For spinmax, rake decreases matter more because the line between donks and 'average' regs is more blurred Its non-winner-take-all instances require a totally different and yet poorly studied strategy, though, so I think most spin regs and even most 6-man hyper regs would be losers at spinmax in their first months.

Last edited by coon74; 12-06-2018 at 10:51 AM. Reason: the link was pointing 2 posts above the intended post
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Old 12-06-2018, 04:12 PM   #6870
Duncelanas
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
The problem is that they don't have EV ROIs below -20%, and the sum of the 3 entrants' ROIs is -21% by definition in a $7. Good regs' ROIs are lower at 7s than below just because there are relatively fewer total donks in the pool, while the rake is only 1% point lower.
There are plenty of terrible players in the 7s pool. Otherwise it wouldn't be possible for the average reg to have 55 cev or a stronger reg to have 70. You're just weirdly logic-ing yourself out of a very profitable game because you're scared to learn to play better. Yes, the ROI will be lower than at $1s or $3s, but poker isn't just an ROI maximization game. We're in it to make money, which means it's about hourly as well. There may be a different sweet spot for everyone regarding minimizing variance (ROI-centric) and maximizing hourly, but that line definitely shouldn't be between 3s and 7s when with some work you could cruise at 60 or 70 cev and not have much variance anyway.

Quote:
<---
Then fix it

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
<snip long post>
I just feel like you're concerned about a whole bunch of bizarre factors here when the reality is decent regs can win in these games at 4-5% after removing top 3 ev, and if you're doing that your variance will be decently low regardless, plus you'll be making a solid $15/hr. You just tend to really overcomplicate this stuff. I know you're not striving to become a high stakes strong reg, which is fine. But that just means you should pick a stake where the average game is soft enough, work just hard enough to become a somewhat above average reg in those games (not too hard at 7 or 15 spins, really), and then just sit back and indefinitely print with relatively low variance. It's a pretty simple process, really, and doesn't take much overcomplication, and will leave you in a spot where you're printing maybe $10 or $15/hr with reasonably low variance, which is multiples of the potential hourly even if you're crushing it at $1s.

-------

This is part of the problem with a strict kelly-criterion strategy more broadly. If things go poorly, you move down very late and have to waste X hours grinding for a fraction of the hourly possible if you used slightly more conservative brm. You tend to also overthink things and massively over-respect whatever $3 or $7 regs there are, meaning you're probably playing nervous b or c-game even when you do get the opportunity to shot higher.

For what it's worth, as usual I don't really expect this psot to make any dent in your iron-willed mindset, but for the past year or two now I've gotten enough enjoyment out of this bizarre extended back-and-forth that I keep replying anyway
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Old 12-06-2018, 04:39 PM   #6871
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duncelanas View Post
and then just sit back and indefinitely print with relatively low variance.
The problem is, the poker ecosystem, especially the HU and 3-max ecosystems vulnerable to AI, won't wait for me. Online poker can die at any time, leaving me with insufferable alternative ways of earning money.

Quote:
You tend to also overthink things and massively over-respect whatever $3 or $7 regs there are, meaning you're probably playing nervous b or c-game even when you do get the opportunity to shot higher.
It's better to be nervous and focused than to chill and spew.
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Old 12-06-2018, 05:05 PM   #6872
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Quote:
Originally Posted by coon74 View Post
The problem is, the poker ecosystem, especially the HU and 3-max ecosystems vulnerable to AI, won't wait for me. Online poker can die at any time, leaving me with insufferable alternative ways of earning money.
This is an argument to try to push to 7s/15s now to get ahead of the ball rather than spending your hours at 25c and $1s.

Quote:
t's better to be nervous and focused than to chill and spew.
I'm actually not sure about this. Being nervous is a surefire way to get run over.
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Old 12-06-2018, 05:14 PM   #6873
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

Don't ask me why I have <$100 in disposable cash (well, infantilism and laziness), and by that, I mean the budget for both food and 'work', but pushing to 7s is exactly what I'm doing, just I'm not yet used to playing over 100 games a day, need to get used asap.

My life is a thriller, smh.
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Old 12-28-2018, 04:54 PM   #6874
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

What do u guys think is the average cev for 15s, 30s, 60s ,100s this days ?
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Old 12-29-2018, 06:18 PM   #6875
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Re: ** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **

did anyone in 100s get refund from stars?
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