** Official Spin and Go's Discussion Thread **
05-09-2016
, 03:16 PM
05-09-2016
, 04:25 PM
No thanks, these are so risky that I'll continue playing 18-man superknockouts instead 
As per SwongSim, even if one totally crushed these spins (wins 40% of games), s/he would still lose 200 buy-ins ($5K) in ~10% of cases if these games continued for long enough
According to the rules on the page that Baard has linked to,
It's terrible that T$ is awarded by the support with a delay, instead of an automaton, as I'd really appreciate it if the spins didn't wipe liquid cash out of my account completely, which would happen if I played a decent number of them (I'd accumulate a lot of surplus SCOOP tickets which I wouldn't be able to reuse immediately towards the same type of spins).
As per SwongSim, even if one totally crushed these spins (wins 40% of games), s/he would still lose 200 buy-ins ($5K) in ~10% of cases if these games continued for long enough
Code:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Effective Specified Simulation Place Finish Distribution Finish Distribution 1 0,04% 0,039993% 2 0,24% 0,240079% 3 3,88% 3,879388% 4 35,84% 35,839773% ITM 40% 39,999233% --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4000 simulations of 250000 games Expected ROI (with rakeback/bonus/award): 14,6% ($912500) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 99% had ROI below 18,55% ($1159150) 97.5% had ROI below 17,89% ($1118200) 95% had ROI below 17,41% ($1088250) 90% had ROI below 16,80% ($1050250) 80% had ROI below 16,01% ($1000800) 70% had ROI below 15,45% ($965600) 60% had ROI below 14,98% ($936500) 50% had ROI below 14,59% ($911700) 40% had ROI below 14,17% ($885500) 30% had ROI below 13,68% ($854900) 20% had ROI below 13,17% ($823150) 10% had ROI below 12,48% ($779950) 5% had ROI below 11,91% ($744650) 2.5% had ROI below 11,42% ($713850) 1% had ROI below 10,82% ($676000) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 99% had a downswing greater than $8457 97.5% had a downswing greater than $8978 95% had a downswing greater than $9445 90% had a downswing greater than $9987 80% had a downswing greater than $10805 70% had a downswing greater than $11428 60% had a downswing greater than $12101 50% had a downswing greater than $12720 40% had a downswing greater than $13454 30% had a downswing greater than $14317 20% had a downswing greater than $15393 10% had a downswing greater than $17106 5% had a downswing greater than $18891 2.5% had a downswing greater than $20383 1% had a downswing greater than $22797 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 99% had a low point lower than $0 97.5% had a low point lower than $-49 95% had a low point lower than $-118 90% had a low point lower than $-240 80% had a low point lower than $-519 70% had a low point lower than $-805 60% had a low point lower than $-1151 50% had a low point lower than $-1596 40% had a low point lower than $-2131 30% had a low point lower than $-2776 20% had a low point lower than $-3746 10% had a low point lower than $-5479 5% had a low point lower than $-7145 2.5% had a low point lower than $-8718 1% had a low point lower than $-10548 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 99% had a breakeven stretch longer than 6315 games 97.5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 6974 games 95% had a breakeven stretch longer than 7428 games 90% had a breakeven stretch longer than 8090 games 80% had a breakeven stretch longer than 9017 games 70% had a breakeven stretch longer than 9800 games 60% had a breakeven stretch longer than 10515 games 50% had a breakeven stretch longer than 11313 games 40% had a breakeven stretch longer than 12190 games 30% had a breakeven stretch longer than 13229 games 20% had a breakeven stretch longer than 14642 games 10% had a breakeven stretch longer than 17292 games 5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 19621 games 2.5% had a breakeven stretch longer than 21974 games 1% had a breakeven stretch longer than 24903 games ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote:
Please Note: The first ticket that a player wins for each SCOOP Main Event will be non-transferable, non-exchangeable and non-refundable. If a player wins multiple tickets to the same Main Event(s) then any subsequent tickets will be exchanged for T$ within one week of the Main Event(s) taking place. Players will not need to contact Support to trigger the transfer(s), as all transfers will be handled automatically by our staff no later than May 29, 2016.
Last edited by coon74; 05-09-2016 at 04:36 PM.
05-09-2016
, 06:31 PM
05-09-2016
, 06:39 PM
05-10-2016
, 07:50 AM
05-10-2016
, 04:32 PM
I guess Andrew was hinting at that those who're aware of their ITM (which is easy despite the ban of 3rd party software) predict their winrates so accurately and thus can fix leaks or quit the game so fast that they have a huge informational advantage over those who look at their actual winnings only and continue donating (in EV terms) after they had a good run playing bad. I.e. beginning gamblers are hardly aware of how much they're about to lose in the long run.
But anyway, the reason why Andrew dislikes game formats / features is usually that they're way too good for regulars
Listen to Mr West and play what he advises against.
But anyway, the reason why Andrew dislikes game formats / features is usually that they're way too good for regulars
Listen to Mr West and play what he advises against.
Last edited by coon74; 05-10-2016 at 04:40 PM.
05-10-2016
, 09:54 PM
