#grinder4all , not sure what is silly but I ignore big multi because there is bunch of chance that you will not hit any during 1-2 year of grind even with that volume. for rb of course I count it wanna just illustrate in my example that is possible even without it (cause still some people considering rb as something bad, which is silly in spins )

for 55cEv, don't see any extraordinary in it. myself I have 39 at 30$ over 5.5K games and I consider myself as very weak reg. most of my money come from fish, vs regs I loosing. if I am not wrong about 0.7cEV/hand. so now imagine if I would be able to fix those leaks, how my eEV would explose..?

I have serious doubts about whether playing the $2*x limit in a stable, especially at a site with the 10000x+ multiplier, is more +EV than playing the $x limit and paying for coaching on one's own.

The reason for my doubts is that, though I don't know what the actual cuts are in the market, I realise that stables have to insure themselves hard against stakerolling. Unless the horse has ferroconcrete references, the stable should structure the agreement so that the horse's liability in case of winning a top jackpot is very limited, and thus the cut from lower multiplier prizes is more in the stable's favour than the horse would like, because the stable can't really hope to get a $150K cut handed on a silver plate if the horse ships $300K.

Maybe it's possible to tailor a good staking agreement at Stars.com where the 12000x now falls only once in 1M games, just giving 95% of that jackpot to the horse as the contribution towards the payout tier is merely 0.4% of the buy-in. But at partypoker, where the top jackpot lands 8 times out of 1M (albeit with 4 players per tourney), it eats 2% of the buy-in and I doubt that a mutually satisfactory agreement is possible for the $20s. The same holds for Winamax / Stars.fr €25+, where staking is also hindered by logistic trouble (the inability to withdraw anywhere but to a bank account).

The chance of not hitting any of the jackpot multipliers when playing 48000 games in a year is incredibly low.

I don't pay for spinlyser, but from what I gather from those that do, 55 cev would make you one of the end boss regs on there if you're also putting in 4k games a month

The standard cut is 50/50 and I don't see why you'd think a spins stable needs insurance against this rare eventuality - surely MTT stables run similar risks of horses hitting a big score then running off? And those stables have lasted ages.

You have a low self-esteem. Having 39 chips at $30 is a heck of an achievement, you'd likely beat me in a HU hyper match long enough.

The 50/50 cut looks terribad to me considering how much softer $x's are than $2*x's.

MTT stables have survived because enough players have excess fear of variance and/or want fame (good-looking Sharkscope). I think they shortchange themselves too when they join a stable.

But maybe I underestimate the inspirational value of teamwork, just I've never been a social animal myself.

nah, It's just reality. to make living from poker nowadays (living, not just survive) you need to be in top 5%, and to make good living in top 1% I believe

other factor is which influent me is that in my entourage I met a lot of badass players. for instance guys which started with me last summer at 7$ now they shooting 100$ and I'm still stick at 30$. however do not miss understand me, I do not complain! I know that I can do better! I just realized that I was lazy ass. starting really work my game only now.

yes. if your team is strong.

But even if the team is strong, why wouldn't it offer access to the group chat for a fixed (or chipEV-based if the coach really wants to stand under his bridge) cash price instead of sweat equity that might be too much in favour of the team because the team gives itself a thick margin to hedge against the stakeroll risk?

No sweat - no hard feelings.

Speaking of, I wonder why people have to pay (in cash or EV) for coaching, only to realise in the end that their fate is in their own hands and no other human can fix their work ethic.

I'n not statistic geek, but not sure if you are right . let's try to calculate it. for example only 120x, it frequency is 1/10000 games so 4.8/48000

chance of not hitting any of them in 10K games:
(9999/10000)^10000 = 0.3678 ; so over 36% is quiet big chance imo

now would be good to see what is chance to not hit it on bigger sample size. adding proba from different big multi (which frequency is different) and sort out some average number. unfortunately I am not able to do it ;( to many variable.

simply because mostly those guys move up in stake or if they have enough money they invest their $$ and time in different kind of activity which is is more sociable (different game format, business opportunity etc). clicking spins for long time is not dream job imo

hmm.. from financial point of view question: be or not to be in stable? take coaching or not? etc . I think every poker player should analyze situation and should take most EV decision for him. stable is just business as any other, they offer product, up to you if you buy it or not. I think in many aspect stable can be good if good organized as by been in it you save most important resource which man possesses: time

what I was more have in mind, is that working in groupe is frequently valuable thing cause it give you different perspective, motivate you often etc. but I was talking about general here and not advocated any stable in any way. having buddy on skype, talking hands , analyze pt4 database etc. posting on 2+2 forum all this is very good things which push you in improvement process. of course, most of this think you can do at your own but it can be a little bit more boring

100% agree

Let's not forget that hitting a big mult is not enough, one has to win the tourney to get decent money unless it's 12000x.

Let's say that, getting a 120x-240x tourney 150 times out of 1M, a reg wins it 59 times (38.7% ITM <=> 90 EV chips - an overestimate), plus he hits a 12000x 1 time out of 1M which is OK even if he fails to win. Then he 'ships a jackpot' 6 times out of 100K.

The probability of not shipping it over 48K games is 0.99994^48000 ~ 0.05613 = 5.613% as per Wolfram Alpha.

Warning: extremely nerdy math incoming, stop reading here if you're not interested in a method of calculating this in your head (i.e. in case you have no Internet access)!

2+2'ing is good for fun and finding a few serious buddies but probably not for self-improvement

Anybody know vernicci?

Guy is a massive scumbag who blinds me down while dc for like 15 sec in a regbattle, just wanted to let you guys know that you shouldnt send back to him.

My point was that without backing, the swings associated with sub 1.5% ROIs would eat those players alive. At best, it would drive them down to lower stakes and at worst, make them quit altogether.

A massive scumbag, really? In case you're talking about a 'Spin and Go regbattle' (how could it be arranged at all - did you sit each other via a Skype group or did you just randomly meet?), it's hard to blame him for not following an agreement that you two have never explicitly made in the first place (as far as I understand). The behaviour standard on euro networks is that everyone blinds the opponent(s) out given the opportunity, and I see no reason why it should be different at Stars. How could he be sure that you disconnected accidentally and not on purpose (to have him send you your chip equity whereas he would have crushed you if you continued playing with deeper effective stacks)? Getting a stable connection (or, better, two) or choosing a poker site that doesn't lag too much is part of the game.

Can confirm I would also blind you down and not expect you to send back in a Spin.

It was a hyper HU and we were playing for like 2 hours, he just kept telling me how he is a spin reg which I didn't care about.

Also I wasn't dc, I accepted the rematch and there is this stupid bug which probably everybody has experienced where the game doesn't open alone(It happens like once every 200 games or something), so I had to go to tools and open it from there which didn't work instantly either. He made sure to blind me down as fast as possible in the ~15 seconds I was sitting out.

But well I guess if that is the standard thing to do I will do in the future as well.

I do not thing so is standard think to do vs reg which you play from 2 hours. imo not polite. unfortunately it happen often when player pool is big. on smaller room (or higher stake) where regs know each other is not that common.

to play 4k games and 55cpg at the $30s ud need to be a fish crushing, reg beating, mass tabler. which there only 1 of and thats spin4play. any other high volume guys are struggling to make 40cpg. playing 2 tables with absolute focus 10 hours a day is like 120 games a day with days off can get u 2500 games a month at that cEV imo but aint nobody got time fo dat

Yeah exactly. If you're only playing 1500 games a month, and thus only play 2 tables at the weekends and evenings, then maybe 55 cev is possible. For 4000 games you're going to have to play more tables at sub peak hours, and very few would manage 55CEV under such circumstances.

Hi

Hey, are any of you spin grinders in Thailand? I'm moving there next week and it would be sweet to have some pals to talk spins with in person.

Guys, I need to disagree with you. when I talking about playing 4K games I have in mind some spin pro which play this as main game (probably 95%+ of his monthly volume coming from spins). As well my example is only about guys which play spins for a living and it is their main financial income (not coming an eventual in come which can come from some outside investment of course, as I have in mind $/working hour).

so, 4K games per month while 4 tabling (about 24 games per hour) is:
4000/22 working days = 182 games per day
182 games / 24 games per hour = 7.6h per of grind per day

adding 2.5-3h for breaks we finish with 10-10.5h working day , so basically same time which we need to spend when going to 9-7 regular job (included travel time and lunch breaks) or even less if we work in some sectors.

if we able to mange to have 55chips+ our salary from poker will be descend and probably above average even in well developed country (about 4K$ without counting big multipliers).

so we have 5 days working week which produce quiet nice income at the end of the month (+ possibilities of bonus when shipped), quiet good no..?

probably for stay on the top we need to invest about 20% of hour working time into education, so we need to add about 40-45h for it which will affect hour hourly rate , but still believe that we can do it as extra job before session as warm up or on one of free days (seems hard, but if you go to real job, you really think that you will have your promotion if you not put more work in what you do then your colleagues? if yes.. hell! stop playing poker and do this amazing job as it's nuts!

and for the guys which saying is not possible, to hard etc etc. My biggest month in volume was 2880 games on 30$ with 49cEV (mixing 2-3-4 tables) this month I stared played 5 days later, having horrible working ethic (skipping sessions), smoking, bad eating , no sport etc. still manged to do quiet well. and as I said, I do not believe I am good at all. vs regs actually I am horrible when multitables as I do not adjust almost at all.

and about argument that no much guys is able to it, I do not buy it. I know there is a lot of guys which are able to do so, but why there would go for such crazy grind if they can move level up and with less working hour have same financial outcome. actually I would go in different direction of thinking. guys which do it, they often good enough to beat 30$ field but from some reasons (like BR issue, not able to regwarring etc) do not move to 60$.

wug table count mate?

5-6 tabling, sometimes more when tilted or vs fishy tables

Which part? Few guys in BKK I believe, none that I know of in CM.

If your point is that poker is hard, edges are small, and the trends are discouraging...

I agree.

I am still not sure where I'm planning to live yet, as I don't know much about the country. I will fly in to BKK and probably travel around for a month before getting back to the grind, and one of the factors I'd consider for the city I'm going to set up shop in would be whether or not I could meet some spin grinders, or maybe HU hyper guys (but preferably spinners).