Don't have all my games saved, but here are my numbers:
pt4 sample: 3100 games
chipev mean: 55
chipev stddev: 433
realchip stddev: 722

Lets get a bunch of input here from volume players, would be really interesting. Here are instructions on how to get these numbers:

If those numbers match other people's std dev, that means after 3k games you have 95% confidence of being with +- 15 chips of your real chipev. And even after 10k games you only go down to + 9chipev. Over the 800 games suggested above to give an idea of winrate, your confidence interval is +- 30chipev.

You need to 4x your sample to halve your confidence interval. So with the diminishing gains of increased volume and the likelihood of your true winrate to change over time, it seems that chipev is a highly flawed measure of skill that we shouldn't put very much stock into, it's simply the best measure we have available right now.

As for your last question, see Max Cut's above post.

Imagine that the losing sample of 236 games and the winning sample of 400 games both belonged to you.

Then you'd have two contrasting samples (if they were at the same buy-in level, which I don't remember, tbh) would mean nothing else than that your true winrate would be likely somewhere in between, i.e. you most likely ran cold in the losing sample but hot in the winning one.

Adding those two samples up, we'd get that you won ~18K chips over 636 tourneys (if I'm not mistaken) and overall your observed chip EV would be about 30 per tourney, and we could say with high confidence that 1) it's bigger than 10 chips (thus winning at least a bit post-rakeback), 2) it's lower than 50 chips. As I've heard that crushers win at least 100-ish chips at $2s and 70-ish at $10s, it means that you'd have room for improvement, that's all that I meant.

It's not very clear if KingFiveOff is indeed a loser, but it's quite clear that he's not a crusher and thus can improve his ROI easily by a bit of study.

But regarding your first question, you need to understand that the randomness in Spins is so huge that, over small samples, almost any player is usually in an 'in-between' state where they can't confirm the hypothesis of a being loser but also can't confirm the hypothesis of being a winner.

I.e. in statistics, a question about whether the EV of a random variable is positive with x% confidence often has three possible answers: 'Yes with x% confidence', 'No with x% confidence', and 'We don't know yet'.

That's very true. I wouldn't rely solely on the chip EV if I were to evaluate potential horses (but I don't do this business). I'd dig deeper into their strategy knowledge, mental game quality, HUD-reading skills, etc.

after heater last night =))

Guys, man this stinks, went from +$108 to -$4. Is 205 games enough for anything, like I'm down $4 after 205 games winning around 35% is this enough to say I should stop because I haven't made any money. Anybody have any advice, love spin n go's but pissed I lost all those profits. =/

stop it.

lol, dude can you show a graph of your stats, I want to see what a real sample size graph looks like, I'm new to this and never like giving back profits =//

LOL

I often have losing streaks of 10 games and it's not too uncommon for me to have stretches of 20 games where I lose all but 1 or 2 games. Go play a couple thousand games. And when you play spin and gos, you're going to be giving back profits a lot.

wealth, i understand the frustration but you've already asked and been answered. Again, download / play around with the swongsim program, and you would do well to search the forums for more information about this. but this isn't the thread to post updates about how you're doing in the games (unless you win a big one. in which case feel free to brag all you want, and ship me a percent )

how do you guys deal with this: you win a 6x, then lose 5 in a row and give back all profits, just seems like it keeps happening over and over again, so tilting

I would advise dealing with emotional/tilt issues.

Anything worth a penny in poker that talks about variance or profitability should be telling you that short term results mean absolutely nothing. Don't look at the bankroll, don't care what happens in one hour or ten hours or even fifty hours, just pay attention to your decision making.

Look at your EV every week or two (longer if your bankroll can handle not having to check) but really focus on improving your decision making. Good players will basically always profit a good amount over the long haul.

As you can see from game 600 to 2500 i made around 0 profits... i hope this gives you an idea about the variance in outcomes.
This is the 7dollar spin go level

Can Someone help me out please.

I played 866x $1 Spin and Go's this year.

According to my HEM
Winnings : $810
Net Winnings: -$49,50
$EV : $796,59
ROI%: -5,76%
ITM%: 36,4%

If I look at my Net Won Chips and Hands
Total Hands : 24.882
Net Won Chips: 50.148
bb/100: 5,56

Does the winrate of 5,56 bb/100 tells me I am doing okay, despite the negative ROI?

Thanks in advance,

Johan

@ TH3CLOWN

Right now you are winning 57,9 chips/tourney. This means your ROI should be 3,8%. So it seems like you are on the right way & just run really bad with the multipliers.

But much more important to know how you are doing is chipEV/tourney. It shows a way better picture of where you are right now.

Cool , much thanks, that was easier then I thought

move up, ffs...

good advice, thanks

awesome graph! thanks for posting it, good to see what a real sample looks like. encouraging info there for sure. looks like you are crushing it man. would love to chat with you sometime about your game and watch you play live.

here is a Spins graph from $300 level top hyper hu pro(who we may be anonymous now). does this look encouraging to u guise?

11k games and -4.2k profit. that looks disgusting and its not the only one. if top level players cant beat spins how can we average joes then? I know that u guise have found very profitable marketing opportunity marketing those Spin & go packaments, but guise lets be honest. that game is unprofitable in the long run. only guise who somehow manage to hit lottery can make profit out of them, for other ppl its just a waste of TIME and MONEY.

I have seen many other graphs too and guys who plays professionally have lost even tens of thousands of dollars to Spins. I literally feel disgusted atm.

He's a SN/SNE and I guess most of those Spins were played in 2015, so I'm quite sure he's up a lot due to rakeback.

Yes 2015. I can imagine why he quit playing Spins. Surely nothing to do with how unprofitable they are...

You can't just pick a specific guy that played $300s HUSNG and say "oh wow he's not winning, games not profitabe."

I can pick you some guys that played mainy $60s HUSNGs and are doing very well in Spins right now. That doesn't make Spins super profitable automatically either.

The same thing about being too short term results oriented with your own games is applicable to looking at other players to get a feel for how profitable a game is.

I think we should have one rule in this thread though, before you make a statement about variance in Spins, ask yourself if the same is true for MTTs.

The main issue for some people is not profitability but the amount of money they can be under EV. Those who're above EV are those who have binked a big jackpot; those who haven't (but have played many tens of thousands of games) are usually a few hundred BIs below EV but, nevertheless, have also won a few hundred BIs incl. rakeback because the games are soft enough.

And yes, the MTT variance is not less brutal.

Are there many winners who play these spin and goes and make it their primary game?

I'm wondering whats even a good roi for these at each level. And those that play it only... how many games at once?


So basically the top prize for each buyin level... assumings someone hits it... another one could also be hit very close to it? Someone else mentioned that even if someone hits the big prize for a particular buyin, someone can also hit it pretty soon etc.