Quote:
Originally Posted by eddymitchel
who care if it attract fish if you cant make money in 2 years because of variance?
After running the simulation using the program that someone else generously made ITT (hat tip to that guy, it's much appreciated), then after 100 K games (I think that number can be achieved by the end of next year if you work hard) with a 36% win rate with 40% RB in the $15s, then the bottom 1% result is 33 K profit. 99% outcome is 140 K, average outcome is 76 K.
So there is a lot of variance, just like there is in MTTs. But it's inaccurate to say that you "can't make money" over the course of two years.
Can a 36% win rate be achieved long-term? I think it definitely can. Can I obtain it? I don't know, I may have things to work on, but I'm not going to say it is Stars' fault that my win rate isn't good enough.
Obv I'm a noob to this sub-forum, but if I had to guess the majority of people complaining about the variance are jaded HUSNG grinders who have a really pretty graph because the variance in their games is so low. Well, good for you, but that probably isn't ideal to sustain the poker ecosystem. The rake is NOT ridiculous, the variance isn't as bad as it could be (imagine jackpot MTTs??)