Quick question on when to move up stakes:

I’ve been studying and playing spins for about a month and things are going well so far.

Should I move up from $2 to $5 with 140 buyins at $5, or is that premature as I’ve seen brutal variance from folks in this thread.

Current status:

• Games played: ~1,500
• cEV: ~100 p/g
• Current buyins at $2: 350
• Buyins if I move up to $5: 140

If you bust your account are you giving up poker? If so then I would want more like 250+ buyins.

If you bust are you going to just shrug and redeposit? If so then I am fine with being more aggressive in moving up towards whatever limit you are striving for as long as you are winning.

Great reply. Thank you. I can redeposit. But I’m trying to do this ‘properly’. As in, be disciplined and grow my BR organically.

I’ll probably move up but be ready to drop down if we hit a bad run and grind it up again.

You could take agro shots at higher stakes when you have x ammount of bins for your current level and move back if you drop below that. Like when you have 500$ for twos you could use the 200$ for taking shots at fives.

You are over thinking this. Take $200 (40 buy-ins) and go play some $5's. IF you lose the $200 drop back down to $2's.

After the New Year I decided to get back into Spins. Things have gone quite well: I am running 90 CEV in $10 spins over 460 games. As per my normal I am running significantly below EV...every format I play I am always we run way below EV.

Story of my life in poker:




Keep telling myself to join a pool but never do...

It's hard when you're running bad, but try to stay positive and keep playing great poker. You're clearly better than the field and the rewards will come. Fwiw, here's my graph on my most played site and I'm also way under EV but have managed to be v profitable. The variance in spins seems brutal - feels like the biggest edge a good player can have is to not tilt!

Running bad for less than 1k games and crying about is so funny. At one point I have run close to 40k games under ev. It is what it is just need to grind it out or join a pool if you can't handle it.

I guess if someone plays like 1 or 2 tables for couple of hours a day this might feel bad and running crap so long.

I'm not crying about anything, and I am close to 7k games at the $10 level where I have run way under EV. But it would be nice if at some point, in any format I play, that I could run anywhere near EV. It is as if variance only runs in the negative direction!

Most everyone underestimates variance.

If bad runs can go on longer than we think… Guess what? Good runs can too.

Don’t be one of the many people reading this right now who give in to their delusions. Delusions that they’re unlucky.

I am definitionally unlucky. You can say that luck doesn’t exist in the long run, sure, but it surely does in the short to medium term. I have not done it in some time, but in every format I have played, when I chart my performance against possible outcomes ie variance, I have always been in the bottom 3rd of the chart.

I have played 100s of thousands of cash game hands over several years. In all of that time I have had 1 month where I ran above EV. Ironically, that is also the only month where I had a negative EV. I think I should have lost $100ish but only lost like $50. The same goes for spins and MTT…never had a losing month in EV but never had a month where winnings were anywhere close to EV.

So definitionally, I am unlucky. The question is how the luck affects play: it doesn’t seem to affect me much based on my cumulative EV.

I had hopes that chips won was finally going to get close to EV...then I went on a -6000 chip downswing today. Now I am -13000 chips below for the month. It helps that I continue to win despite the variance...my actual chips won/game is something like 61, so well above the profitability line.

The big difference I am seeing in Spins after returning from hiatus is the amount of limping. I'm coming across guys limping all range of hands, from trash to big pockets. Seems like a pretty stupid strategy. I'm doing a lot of jamming with Ax and small pockets and other than that they are just giving free flops to crack their premiums.

So frustrating, dropped another 7,000 chips below EV over the last day. Now sitting 20k below for the month. But now, I am also in an EV slump. It is has been a constant stream of Jamming Ax into medium pocket pairs and losing. Seems like every game I get villain down to 3-4bb and then, hand after hand, get nothing but junk I can't jam.

Honestly 7000 spins over such a long time is no real sample size. Spins is super high variance. EV line rarely meet and i know this from guys with sample sizes in the hundreds of thousands.

Just focus on the things you can change and worry not about what you can not influence.

It is not even worth the time it takes to write a post about such scenarios

As for the run bad and crappy card distribution when shallow stacked, this is unfortunately another common thing with spins but the good news is, it also happens to our opponents too :P

GL mate

Yeah unfortunately you are not a snowflake. Sheet like that happens to 98% of the spins players. And it really doesn't matter how you run in other formats tbh.

It doesn’t really matter how you run in any format, does it?

But it gets really damned annoying when, in every format you play you find yourself massively behind in the ev:wins ratio.

Wow, these games - at least the site I play on - have really become limp fests, especially on the button. I keep cracking big hands with junk they let me sneak in with. You would think they would learn…

So far April has been the worst. Generally card dead mixed with huge counterfeits, coolers and non stop bad beats.

For the month I am running negative EV with AA, KK, and QQ. I’ve gotten KK or QQ in vs AA 4x pre, and have had gotten KK in on the flop vs AA 3x. And, I haven’t won a single pot with AA when I’ve seen flop. In The latest one dude limped, I raised 3x with AA and he called with 10-6 off. Dude flopped a 6, called a 60% pot bet, then jammed turn when he hit 2 pair. And, on top of that, I’m also running below EV with those same hands.

Somehow I’ve managed to run slightly positive EV for April despite this though, of course, I am still 20,000 chips below EV and that is still dropping. Very frustrating.

This is just 1 game/example of the non-stop **** show.

2 limpers, I have A10o in BB and jam for 20bb. BTN fold, SB calls with K5s and flops a King and a flush draw before river the flush.

Down to 6bb, I jam KQo same villain calls with Q2. We flop trip queens. River double pairs board and we split pot.

6bb jam AKo from SB and BB calls with J10…he rivers a straight

Good god, crap just continues. 10x multiplier villain takes out other opponent so it’s like 50bb to 25bb. I manage to get ahead down to about 15bb

I get KK and raise to 2.2bb. Villain jams and I call…he shows A5o.

Flop comes out 3 4 6

Turn 7

River 5

Next hand, I jam 55 and villain calls with AA beats me. Next hand i get bad beat and I’m out.

not clicking that but i can guess what it is

psa guys
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/p...gnore&u=537541

I saw someone post a Cev graph from GG spins. Is there a tracking program that works on gg or way to download your hands?

Hand2note. Need to dl your hands from pokercraft first.

Thanks yeah i found the pokercraft this morning.