the title says it all really. its a variance question about hu hypers.. it seems like I'm just running bad but how bad is bad? am I even a winner long term? breakeven? slight loser? fish? I haven't been studying as much as I should have but cmon..its the $6's..lol what do you guys think?

my overall: 549 games


this week I changed up my play a little. I turned off my hud as I believe its a hindrance sometimes. I also stopped rematching, especially if I lose the first game. sometimes players will get up 2 or 3 or more games and then when you win 1 they just deny rematch. I will rematch vs. certain players though, if theyre new and make a fishy play obviously but I will also rematch regs if I know they will rematch win or lose.

heres the graph for this week : 151 games ( so far)



overall I'm down 59 buyins. which is really gross honestly. according to sharkscope though I saw a few of the leaderboard hyper players had 80-100 BI downswings over a 500 game sample. is it variance? or do I just suck? did turning my hud off help me or hurt me?

let me know what you think..thanks

*this week is included in overall you can see where it begins around hand 5k to 5500

It appears your strategy of no rematches and turning off your hud wasn't done for any real reason other than throwing things at the wall to see what sticks. Almost any coach or pro would advise you to use a hud.

Your no rematch strategy is probably costing you a lot of opportunities to really get to know the ins and outs of your opponents.

Your sd and non sd winning lines suggest that you're bluffing an insanely high % of the time which is not going to be an ideal strategy at $6s. Try checking your DB for pots where you bluffed off a huge amount of BB's and work to determine whether they were good spots or not.

For $6 HUSNGs, the norm is a crushing blue line with a break even-ish red line. I'd guess you are barrel bluffing/bluff raising too much, and also paying off too light. That's what happens to my graph when I'm doing those things. You actually have to be darn tight vs aggression. Mediocre pairs should be ditched quicker than you might think, even vs players you perceive to be crazy.

The hud thing is mostly for me so I don't make assumptions with miniscule sample sizes. I do see merit in using it after the first 5 or 6 games. If I see a name I recognize I should definitely be using a hud.

The rematch strategy was a wall throw. Lol it does combat tilt though, it's so frustrating to lose 4 games to someone then win 1 and they deny. Especially a non-reg. Also my stats get jacked up occasionally with hm2 when you rematch. I played 7 games and won 3500 chips, it showed my net winnings of 5.82 with chips won 3500. It's a bug they're working on but it's still really annoying. Long term rematching is +EV I would imagine unless your levels below your opponent game wise.

Ah haaaa...that makes perfect sense! I can name at least 4 spots in the last 100 games that where I triple barrel and get called down with 2nd pair or less..lol it was vs a reg obviously but nonetheless. My preflop allins I'm crushing EV wise, green line not so much though. I think that is the reason I ask "do I suck" it seems like I'm just getting the boo end of the stick. Work em down to 700 to 300 at 20/40 and OS ATo, only for them to snap call with 22-99 or I jam 55 and snapped by A2-A4. I've been running so bad vs 1 guy, I've lost 9 flips in a row against him. In extremely similar spots. You are 100% correct about your bluffing assumption, in the early levels I am very aggressive to try and get that chip lead that forces our opponents to have to win 2 flips to win the tournament. That aggression comes with a cost though, getting called down with 2nd pair on sick boards. I will do some DB research when I get a chance.

Thanks for the response, exactly what I was looking for

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Idk about tight vs. Aggression, but my river play could use some improvement. Some work in crev should help with that. I'm going to check my DB for chips won with 2nd pair or less.

Thanks!

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lol no man just be tight. $6 games are not real poker your opponents are not skilled players.

yeah you beat the micros with solid, steady poker. no fancy play or creative lines needed.

+ dont try to fold people off top pair

+ over fold when you face aggression over multiple streets

+ get paid with your value

+ be very exploitative - dont ever worry about balance

+ be happy for a hand to play out

rematch all recreationals. it doesnt matter if you actually lose 2-3 games, if you have a n obvious edge rematching is going to be a + ev decision. we only care about + ev decisions. if he loses and runs so be it. the only exception would be v aggressive recs. there are enough passive players in that pool for you to be able to avoid anyone semi-competently aggressive.

do not rematch anyone winning at the stake. they aren't good enough for you to be able to learn anything off them; they are good enough to kill your winrate and take focus off your other tables.

your goal at the $6 level is to develop a sound exploitative strategy and commit to not making errors in implementing that strat. practice your learning v the weak players and build a nice roll - and you can make a nice roll there. you can make $1-2k a year playing recreactionally there. a lot of people have semi-serious hobbies - few of them pay 1-k a year. its a nice bonus so taking poker seriously and enjoying learning at $6 level should be enjoyable and pay for a few nice things. glgl

easier said than done. lol but yes I have to implement a better strategy. I just did some general sorting in my DB and its a eye opener to say the least. PFAI is my best graph and it still sucks.
PFAI:


then I decided to check as PFR:
as was stated earlier..skyrocket red, and downhill blue..too many bluffs


as Open Limper:
ughh..I suck in limp pots. way worse than I expected, I don't "balance" my limps very much and I'm basically limping to stab the flop if villain has a high F2 L/S...its not working out lol need to devise a new plan.


next is in BB and check vs. limp:
I was much too passive in these spots..i tend to give up pretty quickly, most villains have somewhat merged ranges under 16bbs. atleast it seems that way either way I need to be more aggressive here I believe


when I 3B:
seems to follow the " I bluff too much" consensus..


when I face a 3B:
I think I give too much credit here? or maybe I just open too wide as most villains have fairly tight 3B ranges..


defending my BB:
again with the bluffing..or is it run bad? hmm...


and finally..saw showdown:
ugh..i bluff too much..give up and check back too often..probably open too wide also.


I think I agree with the consensus..the real question is how do I fix it?

graphs dont tell much, posting your stats would be 10 times better

heard...


purple- 30-17 bbs
blue - 18-12 bbs
Green - 13-7 bbs
orange- 8-0 bbs

what do you mean by "+ over fold when you face aggression over multiple streets"? call his bluffs off with a decent hand? or fold often even when you think hes bluffing

Over fold in the sense of folding more than you would v a gto bot or a reg you are going to be battling.

You'll often head people saying "u have to call all your ace high here as you don't have enough pairs - and unless you call x% of your range you will be over folding"

Don't need to think like that. You exploit the micro population's under aggression by leaning towards folding v sustained aggression - unless villain has given you reason to think otherwise, or their line is obviously full of ****

And using hand strength is a good metric. People also overvalue medium strength hands and bluff with A high. So heroing K high and third pair can find your bluff catchers losing to their bluffs.

And bluff catching is high variance. Steady explotative poker will see really good results there.

It's not you that sucks, it's poker. Get out while you can

ST is minraise preflop? Looks like it at least, in that case imo its too wide, you are raising too many weak hands which are better to limp. As for your limp graph, given you likely limp very weak range its expected to have barely break even graph, you just have to do better than -50bb/100. But still in the past people were minraising 100% had good ROIs, so you have some postflop leaks which are hard to see here.
What are BB stats?
I understand 3b and RvL what is rest? COS might be call open shove but in this case you are calling 38% 17bb+?
3bet seems too high. Raise vs limp seems ok. Also check raise looks too high, you are either check raise bluffing too much or checkraising too thin for value.

But anyway there are something wrong with your ranges, as people mentioned so high non sd winnings at low stakes where people are going broke much looser are kinda wrong.
Play basic ABC poker, make sure you are value betting always, like dont check for w/e reason strong hands on the flop, or bet flop and check turn, dont try to play tricky, if you have it, just bet bet bet, they will call you.
Also dont be a hero, no herocalls. Ofc im not saying you shouldnt do it, but you need good basic reads, like someone is very agroo, so you just let him bluff and call down your 2 pairs, or your 3rd pair. Imo those are best two things you can do to improve your winrate very fast.
As for bluffing, just pick your spots very good and you will be fine, definitely dont try to make them fold top pair and look for spots when their range is very weak and has lots of air, like you are in BB and its checked down to river, you can stab plenty of rivers with hands like 8 highs just to fold out their overcards.

yes..do you mean overall? or just 17+bbs? I can see my range is very unbalanced here, which if I was playing correctly postflop then it wouldn't be as bad. what about lower than 17?
I think I 2 barrel-give up river too often. also b-x-b line tends to get looked up pretty light as well. I do take that line with some value hands like middle pair-good kicker so its not entirely bluffs. How would I look up my postflop leaks?
the smaller box under the top one. it says BB in the top left corner.
F2ST = fold 2 steal
COS = call open shove
CC = coldcall

theres the COS stat is skewed as the sample is insanely small. I only remember calling maybe once or twice an OS at that stack depth. the pop tend. is under 1%.
I just did as DB search as I thought my x/r range was decent. I'm doing very good picking spots with bottom pair or better. but when I filter for spots I x/r with a straight draw, flush draw or overs without a pair I'm -25bb/100. with bottom pair or better I'm +105bb/100. my 3b is a little out of control, I probably 3b too often. it is a dynamic stat though as there are players I rarely 3b anything less than value and some I 3b all kinds of crap as they have a huge fold %. its probably still out of line though. how can I create a 3b range at varying stack depths? anything under 15bbs I rarely 3b non-AI.
definitely..should I just start from scratch? i bought crev about a week ago but postflop is beyond me. i have the preflop down fairly good but once it goes to postflop its a little confusing. lol

Mainly for 17bb+, your limp is 5%, its very low. You dont have to be balanced just limping all offsuit **** will be better.
Very hard to say where is the problem. But it looks your turn cbet is bit too high, try to pick your spots more carefully.
Seems you are playing too tight vs minraises.

I can tell from this you are checkraising too wide. Like there is no need to check raise bottom pairs or 2nd pairs. Also mostly draws will be better flatted.
As for 3betting, doing it with just Ax, and pp will be ok.