PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BB): 18.5 BB
SB: 56.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 3 4

SB calls 0.5 BB, Hero raises to 3 BB, SB calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 9 2 3
Hero checks, SB bets 3 BB, Hero ?

I did actually just called. Does it ever make sense to shove here?
the broader question would be: when is it ok to raise a middle pair?

This is a near 100% frequency cbet board in GTO. Villains range has less equity than GTO here imo (less super strong stuff like JJ), so usually that means we should cbet a lot still. In GTO, when we do cbet any size on this board, it's a 100% call vs jams. If GTO strat checks flop, it's also a check/jam almost always (blockers/equity/protection).

Most villains probably folding 30-45% vs cbet here. If we cbet half pot, we only need 34% equity to call jam, so not folding at that point imo. Very slightly deeper and I think this just becomes a bet/fold on flop.

This is a tricky spot. Protection is much more of a driving factor in decisions with low SPRs + volatile textures + being OOP.

Thanks, this is very interesting. I didn't cbet here because oppo was aggressive and I knew he would have always bet on this flop.
"If GTO strat checks flop, it's also a check/jam almost always (blockers/equity/protection"
I am not sure that I understood this point. Does it mean that as played I need to jam against his bet?

As played, of course there could be conditions where jamming is bad. Given your read that he’s very likely to bet super wide, it’s an auto-jam (his range much weaker than gto in that case). If your read is correct, check/jamming seems by far best option to me exploitatively.

If opponent is so spewy that he always bets when checked to here, then the iso pre seems likely to be not good. That type of opponent is way more likely to continue wide vs iso, I think. Either way, it’s an interesting spot.

Ok thanks. He looked tight preflop and more aggro post.