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Math Question

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04-12-2015 , 11:55 PM

DatDereCellech

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 127

Example -

It's HU
I min raise from the button
Blinds are 10/20
Assume I lose my min raise 30% of the time, and every other time opponent flats.
Assume my cbet works 50% of the time.
There is no turn or river.

Don't add any other factors into your consideration.

My question is -

What is my chip ev?

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04-13-2015 , 12:20 AM

DatDereCellech

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 127

It's - 12, right?

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04-13-2015 , 07:30 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

correct.

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04-13-2015 , 11:03 AM

rubbishaka80

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 572

I don't get it. Show the math, please.

How big is the cbet? Who wins the pot, when the cbet doesn't "work"?

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04-13-2015 , 11:10 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

I guess OP assumes we lose all the pot when cbet doesn't work.

30% of the time we lose 40 chips.
50% of 70% we win 40 chips.
50% of 70% we lose 40 chips.

EV = - 0.3*40 + 0.7*(0.5*40 - 0.5*40) = - 12

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04-13-2015 , 11:21 AM

Luis Coppel

newbie

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 36

30% of the time we lose 40 chips.
50% of 70% we win 40 chips.
50% of 70% we lose 80 chips if we cbet 40.

-26

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04-13-2015 , 11:27 AM

rubbishaka80

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 572

Mmh, but we lose the cbet, too.

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30% of the time we lose 40 chips.
50% of 70% we win 40 chips.
50% of 70% we lose 80 chips if we cbet 40.

What he said.

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04-13-2015 , 11:51 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

right, my bad.

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04-13-2015 , 03:30 PM

DatDereCellech

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 127

I realized my mistake moments after posting my mistaken answer.

Thanks for clearing that up guys.

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04-13-2015 , 03:56 PM

#10

DatDereCellech

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 127

Just another question to be sure...

Let's say 50% of the time we limp, we get raised and always lose.
Let's say 50% of the time we see a flop, we min bet into the pot, get raised and lose.
Let's say the other 50% of the time we see a flop we min bet and win the pot.

50% of the time we lose 20 chips
50% of 50% we lose 40 chips
50% of 50% we win 20 chips

-10
-10
+5

Similar to the previous question, but just to be sure -

Is my ev in this case... -15 chips?

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