How do I calculate when to stop calling with draws OOP (when dont I have the implied odds anymore)?

Math say that we flop a draw around 11% of the times. FD 11% and OE 10.5%.


Example

Blinds 20/40
SB : Villian $550
BB : Hero $450

Villain opens to $80.
So we have to call $40 more to have a chance of winning his whole stack.


Pot odds = 410:40 = 10.25:1
Cards odds = 10.5% to flop an OE = 8.5:1

So are we getting the right odds to call even this short?
How do we take into account our FE and IO postflop? (How does the math change if villain is willing to stack of with TP only or if he calls it of with MP too or if he is super loose and calls it of with BP too).



How do we calculate how often a certain range hit a hand that it can continue certain streets with. A villain that calls 100% cant stand up against a two barell as often as a villain that only calls 15% OOP.

Math says that we flop a pair 27% of the time, does this mean that we flop TP 9%, MP 9% and BP 9% of the time (two pair 2% and set 1.4%)?

wut?
you don't win automatically once you flop a draw, but for me that is what you are assuming!?

+1

I am confused as well...

Yup, no clue how to give you an answer.


edit: But like.... you can also flop pairs instead of flopping draws. Not sure why you think the probability of flopping a draw is the only important factor when calling preflop. Ultimately, the only thing you should consider is your expectation from flatting versus folding/raising.

Also,

This doesn't make sense. I assume this is the probability of flopping a draw with a random hand. You're not defending ATC oop, are you?

Same goes for:
Yeah, if you're playing any two and seeing every single flop, you will flop each of those pairs 9% of the time.

I was thinking on how to play hands that aren't strong showdown hands but hands that we play because of the implied odds and the extra FE we gain when we can cr and get a fold. J7s, T8, 98o type of hands.


Ok, I'll have to give some examples.
Villain opens 50%, calls a push with top 17% and CB a polarized range of 60%.
When should we stop flatting with J7s, T8, 98o type of hands?


Our next villain open 70%, calls a push with top 35%,CB a polarized range of 75%, he will 3-barell if he sense weakness and he is willing to get it in with BP vs a CR . When should we stop flatting with J7s, T8, 98o type of hands?



No, but I rather play J7s, 98o OOP at 12BB then K3o even though K3o have better eq. You will have more possibilities to CR J8s, 98o then with K3o. Hence more FE. So I wanted to learn to calculate our odds with those hands based on villains opening range and get it in range.



Math say that we flop a draw around 11% of the times. FD 11% and OE 10.5%.
11% if you hold two cards of the same suit, 10.5% if the cards are connected, 1-gap 8%,2-gap 5%, 3-gap 2.6% chance of flopping a draw.

Of course there are many other things to consider when deciding to call or fold (or 3B). There's game flow, perceived image, recent showdown hands, the level that villain thinks on etc. But Im wondering if there's a way to calculate when to stop calling with the implied odds hands based on villains opening range and get it in range.

The odds of FLOPPING a draw has never entered my mind whilst playing poker. It's taking the maths of poker to a whole new level i guess. Next we'll be intergrating flops.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/Common-Flop-Odds.html

[img]http://www.*********************/t/71529.gif[/img]


http://www.pokersyte.com/texas_holdem_poker_odds_4.htm

[img]http://www.*********************/t/c8b5a.jpg[/img]

Wasn't I clear enough this time either?

you have 11% chance of floping a flush draw but a flush draw is not good! you still need to hit your flush! that's only going to happen 35% of the 11% of the time you have hit the draw in the first place! so purely based on that:

89% of the time you don't hit a flush draw (you lose 40)
11% of the time you flop a draw then 2 possibilities: 65% of these 11% you lose 410 and 35% of these 11% you win 490

so it's very -EV

but it's not that simple, because your opponent will sometimes folds to your shove! so it will really depends on what he calls you with! In fact, the only way this play is +EV is if your opponent folds! what make that play +EV or not is the Fold Equity!

but wait! it gets even more complicated! sometimes you are not going to flop a flush draw but you might still flop something worth playing.

There are too many unknown variables to calculate it like this and get a meaningful result.

With a more precise scenario I can attempt to run the numbers through CardRunnersEV.

I'll see if I can come up with a realistic scenario to get an estimate.


In regard to the second part of your question


NO it's not that simple neither. it depends entirely on:
1. your hand (you are obv more likely to make TP with big cards than with 63s)
2. you opponent raising range (because of card removal!)

ok lets give it a go

Lets say (Blinds is 20/40 before posting)
SB : Villian $550
BB : Hero $450

Villain opens to $80 with



we call the $40 with a pure flush draw hand : J6s (something like J6s should be ok as its value is pretty much just the FD)
then we check the flop,
villain bets 1/2 pot and then :
1. we shove if we hit the FD
2. we call with Middle pair+an over, middle pair+at least a GS, an overcard and a GS or at least TP
3. we fold the rest

ok now for villain
if we shove (1.)he calls with At least TP, a FD, or an overcard + OE
if we have just called his flop cbet(2.), lets say that we just checkdown the hands (wouldn't happen in reality but that way both us and villain keep their flopped equity, much more simple and realistic as we will sometimes win and sometimes he will)
and the rest of the time he folds.

Does that sound like a realistic-ish scenario? Any suggestions to improve it?
If it's ok I run it and see what happen.

Ok point taken. Bu there isn't any hand that are just FD...I hink we kind of cover the floping pair part with 2.
any better suggestion?

Not sure this helps OP at all but go here for everything you ever wanted to know about flopping %'s wrt draws ...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/39...eory-math-301/

shove pre

I think i get what the OP is getting at.(Sorry, this is gonna be a novel. I've thought about this a lot. Some of the concepts are, to my knowledge, a bit novel and may be debatable as I thought them up myself but I think the logic is sound. Some of the stuff is already accepted poker dogma.)

Outside AA always being the best starting hand the other hands go up and down in strength based on the situation. Hands like JT and T9s are best when the players involved have deep stacks and play best in multi-way pots. Hands like AXs and small PP's start out as speculative hands in deep stacks then lose value as the stacks shrink but become strong again when the M's are really low. The premium hands like JJ+ and AKs are strong in all blind levels. There is also a rock paper scissors effect; poker hands form a "non-linear hierarchy" of strength. For instance, AKo>JTs>22>AKo.

Poker hands have different characteristics which cause them to play better or worse depending on how deep the stacks are. K2o is objectively stronger than JTs but I think most players would rather have the JTs because it plays so much better post flop and it has potentially higher implied odds.

I'm gonna try to answer the question as I understand it. When M's shrink/blinds increase/play becomes short handed, the power of speculative hands goes down and the power of high card hands goes up. Now this is my personal way of looking at it, but i've been pretty successful with it. When you and your opponent both have short M's, and especially when you are heads up or even when the action folds you into blind to blind combat I start trying to play to the strength of my hands. If you are in a high blind/ante level and are heads up or for all intents and purposes heads up, I think you should be more inclined to raise, call raises, or re-raise before the flop with hands that are objectively stronger but difficult to play post flop. When you have hands like JT or T9s I think you're better off trying to keep the pot small preflop. So I'm more likely to raise with JTs than K5o on the button in the early rounds of a deep stack full table situation. But I'm more likely to raise with K5o than JTs preflop when I'm heads up and my opponent and I have small stacks with bigger blinds/antes.
In the example you (the OP) gave in the OP, with small stacks you should be inclined to try to take cheap flops with suited connectors that are lower than QJ. You can call a preflop raise with a hand like JTs with short stacks only when you are getting a good price to do so but you shouldn't raise yourself or even re-raise with hands like that. High cards and any pocket pairs are what you want to get money in with before the flop when playing shallow stacks. Hands like K8 and A3o are a favorite against JT and 98s type hands but they become difficult to play post flop.

If you're raising heads up with short stacks with T9s you aren't betting for value you are counting on fold equity and I would rarely do it unless you have position. When you raise with K6o preflop with short stacks you are raising with what is likely the best hand so your raising for value. You can still call small raises with hands like JTs preflop in these spots but you're calling for pot odds, I mean you're not in super bad shape unless you are dominated by a hand like AT/KJ, or you're against a pair TT+. You can also raise with your JTs as long as your opponent is able to fold a better hand than yours knowing that even if he calls you are not likely to be a big dog in the hand. That's not how I like to play it though.

Keep in mind you aren't really calling with JTs for implied odds short stacked and short handed, your just calling for express odds. If someone min-raises from the button you are getting 3 to 1 with a hand that is rarely a 3 to 1 dog. Your not gonna see the flushes or strts or even the draws often enough when you have low M's to play for implied odds, its just that most hands, even AK aren't a huge favorite against you. You're calling for express odds. You'd rather flop top pair than a flush draw heads up when you're short stacked.
THE WAY I SEE IT
Premium hands AA, KK, QQ, AKs, AK, JJ are always premium
Good hands like AQs, TT, AQo and such are always good
Speculative hands type one; small to medium suited connectors and medium/big connectors like 65s, 76s,T9s, JTo, and QJo, QTs are good hands to see a cheap flop with in position,especially with limpers already in with deep stacks but they steadily become less valuable as the blinds and antes rise and as the tables shrink.
*Speculative hands type two; ARs (ace rag suited) and small pairs are good when you can see a cheap flop in position with deep stacks, but the lose some value in the middle levels of a tournament. With these hands though, A high and any pair, they become powerful raising hands again when the M's get low.
High card hands: K8, A3,..really anything bigger than Q7 are hard to play and not very good in early and middle stages with full tables but they become more powerful as the number of players shrinks and the blinds and antes grow.

Boy, I hope that's what you where asking about otherwise I just went on a total rant for nothing.

Sharing information is never a waste of time.