KQs vs nitty guy 15 bb deep - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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KQs vs nitty guy 15 bb deep

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08-31-2014 , 04:47 PM

Sorin

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 672

Do you ever find a fold here? stats OOP 3bet 2/37 hands flat 18/37

Poker Stars, $6.71 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #30136531

Hero (SB): 1,476 (14.8 bb)
BB: 1,524 (15.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q

Hero raises to 200, BB raises to 1,524 and is all-in

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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08-31-2014 , 05:15 PM

Ray Guitar

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 174

Can't fold this at 15BB deep against villain. Also, I would not categorize him as a nit just yet, on this very little sample we have, he has been playing 54% of his hands oop and 3b twice.

Anyway, the maths: against a very "nitty" shoving range of any ace, any pp and KQ, we have 43.26% equity and after villains shove, we only need 40% to make this a break even call.

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09-01-2014 , 04:23 AM

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

never folding and happy about it.
Also, stats you post are inclusive?
Nobody 3-bet 5% 15bb eff.

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09-01-2014 , 05:18 AM

Sorin

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 672

Quote:

Originally Posted by xkcd

never folding and happy about it.
Also, stats you post are inclusive?
Nobody 3-bet 5% 15bb eff.

5% overall.. he 3 bet 2/37 but those 2 were when he was over 30 bb deep. Under 30bb deep there was no 3 bet

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09-01-2014 , 01:06 PM

hidequick

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 446

it's a call at those stacks sizes.

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09-02-2014 , 04:57 PM

7betshove

banned

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 171

Open shove and make your life easier. As played there's no way I'm folding this, you should be even happy that he jammed.

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09-02-2014 , 05:12 PM

none888

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 2,665

dont jam pre, minraise and you have to call when he jams, but idk why ppl get so excited calling off KQs, its not like you will crush this players range

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09-02-2014 , 05:18 PM

Sorin

grinder

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 672

Quote:

Originally Posted by none888

dont jam pre, minraise and you have to call when he jams, but idk why ppl get so excited calling off KQs, its not like you will crush this players range

yup... that`s why i posted this hand, just wanted more opinions... against other players it`s an easy call, but when the guy 3bets 2/37 you want to think twice before calling..

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09-02-2014 , 05:37 PM

Kalupso

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 337

Against what I consider top 3/38=8% you have 39% EQ, and I guess this should be the worst case scenario. You need 43% EQ to make a break even call.

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09-03-2014 , 05:56 AM

#10

xkcd

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 448

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kalupso

Against what I consider top 3/38=8% you have 39% EQ, and I guess this should be the worst case scenario. You need 43% EQ to make a break even call.

Noone on this planet is 3bjamming 8% at 15bb
8% is an inclusive result from a small sample, biased by several hands played deep, where obviously people 3bjam tighter.

At 15s-30s HT population 3bet shoves 25% between 12-18bb. Make it 15% if you believe V is uber-tight.

KQs vs. {22-KK, A5s+, A6o+, KQs+} = 43.3% equity

Snap calling and happy bc don't believe V is 3bjamming so tight.

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09-03-2014 , 12:16 PM

#11

Kalupso

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 337

Quote:

Originally Posted by xkcd

Cool then we agree!

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