Quote:
Originally Posted by Polycarpus
You are well aware that variance will increase this way?
Best I can tell, if we had a 55% win rate (4.75% ROI, $5+.25) then we have a 59% chance of winning a best of 5. This gives us a ~1% chance of worse than -2% roi over 200 sets of 5. However, with a 55% win rate over 1000 games, we have only a ~.5% chance of -2% roi. That said, our ROI is 12.38% with the sets of 5. which would make our mean return much higher, lowering swings quite a bit after the first 1000 games or so.
I used ROI simulator for the simulation runs.