Hi guys

Can anyone help me out here with my graph? I play hyper hu 15.- and don't know what hit me. 400 games is not that much but Jesus -29 buy ins after rake?

I dropped 10 or so calling off light, but if it continues like that, I won't make it to 2k games.

Something is really bad here

Cheers for your help.

Hyperpolyglot

Your graph shows you are losing. It is also a small sample. There is literally nothing else one can honestly say based on what you have provided.

The standard basic advice: post some hands, work on your game, add to sample...

thx coffeejay. but doesnt the graph also say I am running below EV? The yellow line had been positive for a few hundred games so my strategy should be overall ok.

I will try to get to those 5k games and then make an analysis.

Thx again

hyperPG

Actually your yellow graph is also going down considerably. Don't look at your last couple hundred games, its biased thinking. Unless you changed your game since the last couple hundreds there is no reason to assume you are now a winning player. Hyper games are super high variance where you need a very good portion of buyins behind. Move down, grind like no tomorrow, then analyse.

Thx I will. I usually have 150 Buy ins for a limit. One last question:

If there's 2% rake, I pay 2 Buy ins every 100 games. That in turn means I need a 3%ish roi to make a small profit. But isn't that already a pretty high roi and hard to achieve?

Considering the rake, is it even possible to make a profit with a lower roi than 3%?

Thx

HyperPG

If you are break even with a good rakeback deal, the answer is yes.
But before you even have a clue about your true ROI and especially to be able to tell if your true ROI is 1,2,3,4,... percent, you would need a very very large sample size of these things.

Doesn't matter if you're over EV or under EV when your EV line is losing and small sample size means sometimes it will go up and sometimes down haha--your total sample shows losing yellow line so that's literally all that matters from the graph.

ROI is measured post-rake. So any +% ROI is positive regardless of rake. So a 1% ROI is still making profit, but of course a 3% ROI is making three times as much profit per/game chipEV and EV-adjusted win-rate are measured pre-rake (ROI is a function of either chipEV of win-rate and then adjusted for rake). But they're rarely used in HUSNG context since PT4 automatically does the ROI calculation and that's all that really ends up mattering. ROI post-RB is even better measure of course (but in HUSNGs the difference is pretty small since both rake and rakeback are pretty small)