Hyper HU gutshot + 2 overs - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy No Limit Tournaments Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos

Hyper HU gutshot + 2 overs

Post Reply Subscribe

...

05-19-2013 , 05:21 PM

Vinsinho

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 165

Villain lost half of his stack when he ch/called 3 streets with 2nd pair few hand ago. Other then that, nothing special happened so far, just a bit of preflop blind stealing. His PFR was 50ish, no other relevant stats (i think). Small sample of 15 hands anyway. Then this hand happened

[hand_history]Poker Stars, $3.40 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 2 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #17489511

SB: 320 (16 bb)
Hero (BB): 680 (34 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J

SB raises to 40, Hero calls 20

Flop: (80) 9

(2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets 280 and is all-in, Hero ...

We need 44% equity here, do you guys think we have it? I'm lost regarding his range...

Quote

05-19-2013 , 05:25 PM

zZzTILT

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 175

pretty easy fold. most of his range is probably 8x and 9x + stronger hands which wanna "protect"

Quote

05-19-2013 , 07:49 PM

0bl1ky

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 80

I find at the lower limits when people overbet shove like this they usually have it.. as zzzTilt says they want to protect against draws and shove all in. I fold thi s and move on readless.

Quote

05-19-2013 , 08:18 PM

ThatsAGoodCard

banned

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,885

Fold. There will be better spots than this to pick from.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 01:42 AM

OneShot

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 312

jam over the MR pre 16bb deep

as played, fold cuz u dont even have 44% equity vs 62o

Quote

05-20-2013 , 02:41 AM

el1337

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 98

Guys what do u think about donking the flop?
Also if we check and villain doesn't shove and just cbets 1/2 are we c/r shoving?

Quote

05-20-2013 , 02:47 AM

Wisher

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 602

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneShot

jam over the MR pre 16bb deep

as played, fold cuz u dont even have 44% equity vs 62o

Don't you think that 16bb is too deep to go in the "all-in" game?
Especially with a hand like JQs which is very good for postflop play?
I know it depends on villain but against a random - my pre-flop play here would be call and not shove.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 03:33 AM

OneShot

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 312

QJs is a monster 16bb deep imo

calling isnt great cuz ur out of position and will brick the flop most of the time and end up check folding to a cbet so jamming will have a better expectation over calling the MR pre

the other option would be to 3bet small to 90ish and cbet/get it in on most flops but id rather make that play at 20bb+ then 16bb cuz of akward stacks postflop that shallow.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 03:38 AM

Vinsinho

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 165

I understand folding flop, sometimes I'm over valuating hands like that. Did fold in game, but seemed a hard fold, apparently not the case tho :>

I don't agree with shoving PF, I always thought QJs is really good to play postflop. Don't have a big enough sample ofc, but my gut feeling is that flatting has much better expectation than simply shoving. At least in this stakes.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 03:50 AM

#10

Wisher

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 602

@OneShot, don't have the software to run the calculations, but you hit a pair ~30% of the time and you need ~25% to call. Most of the time your pair will actually be good (this here is very villain depending). So I really don't see how flatting is inferior to shoving.
I am not stating that shoving is -EV, just thinking that it is less +EV than flatting. Non all-in 3b also seems like a very good option since you take the initiative in the hand and you usually have the best hand when called.
I know it's close between the 3 options, but still prefer flatting.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 12:26 PM

#11

Vinsinho

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 165

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThatsAGoodCard

Fold. There will be better spots than this to pick from.

Yea that was my plan. Or raise small shove turn, depends on the mood. Ok play?

Quote

05-20-2013 , 04:06 PM

#12

ohly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,696

Quote:

Originally Posted by OneShot

calling isnt great cuz ur out of position and will brick the flop most of the time and end up check folding to a cbet so jamming will have a better expectation over calling the MR pre

not really, you can continue over 50% of the time.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 04:09 PM

#13

zZzTILT

centurion

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 175

jamming QJs for 16bb against a 50 % opener is just a waste. nothing wrong with flatting.

Quote

05-20-2013 , 04:55 PM

#14

OneShot

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 312

Quote:

Originally Posted by zZzTILT

jamming QJs for 16bb against a 50 % opener is just a waste. nothing wrong with flatting.

a waste of what?

and 15 hands obv isnt enuf to assume hes opening 50%

im not saying flatting is bad. both jamming and flatting are +EV

any1 have a large enuf database to compare the 2 options at those stack sizes? wish i knew how to filter this kinda stuff in hem

Quote

05-21-2013 , 08:23 AM

#15

Emus

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 839

Around which % (considering a polorized MR range) do you guys switch from 3bnonai to flatting QJs 16 deep ?
I still have the gut feeling that 3bnonai seems better. Did not ran the numbers.

Quote

05-21-2013 , 09:12 PM

#16

Mohawkgolf

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 231

I really believe that flatting or jamming are so close it doesn't matter but I would jam, save effort and time which allows you to play fast which is extra +EV if you are winning player

Quote

05-22-2013 , 04:44 AM

#17

Orsulab3rt

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 1,306

Quote:

Originally Posted by Emus

Around which % (considering a polorized MR range) do you guys switch from 3bnonai to flatting QJs 16 deep ?
I still have the gut feeling that 3bnonai seems better. Did not ran the numbers.

Imo shoving is better why to induce hands like K9s KT to jam over or flat with K7s hands.
I'd rather do it with KT than JQs,makes sense to me, maybe I'm wrong.

Quote

05-22-2013 , 01:26 PM

#18

aumni

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 523

vs 50% which is possibly conservative we've got 52% equity pre. Not really sure why we're not getting it in pre here...

Quote

05-23-2013 , 05:20 AM

#19

Emus

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 839

Quote:

Originally Posted by Orsulab3rt

Imo shoving is better why to induce hands like K9s KT to jam over or flat with K7s hands.
I'd rather do it with KT than JQs,makes sense to me, maybe I'm wrong.

20 a 25 peeps flat enough to QJs to make it nonai3b.
Imo because of lower stack-sizes the lowered required equity for QJs to stack off set off to an extent the bit wider 4bS.
Imo peeps still flat 3b wide enough around 16 to keep this in 3bnonai.

Only when you are convinced that
opp flatting to 3bnonai decreases significantly &
4bS inducing is significantly more then the lowered required equity QJs gets ;
3bnonai start to drop in EV in favour of calling or 3bS as you cannot realize the equity of this good postflop playable hand & good all-in equity hand well enough anymore.

I also can be wrong.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...