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Old 04-15-2009, 03:32 PM   #76
PrimordialAA
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by Insane_Steve View Post
*sigh*

In my OP, I'm calling the EV of folding -50, not 0. So actually any shove resulting in a cEV of more than -50 is better than folding. So you can probably shove even wider than my OP suggests. I think I wrote it like this to present the most profitable scenarios to show just how awesome shoving at these stacks is against someone who raises a lot of buttons.
, regardless, great OP
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Old 04-15-2009, 08:42 PM   #77
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Just cause you can reshove 100% profitably does it mean you shouldn't mix in flats / smaller 3bets, no, of course not, just like with any other part of poker, it becomes a meta / leveling-war, but it IS profitable, and the equations that were given ARE correct.
I know you understand this, but just to be clear for others: just because shoving is hand or chip profitable does NOT mean it is reciprocally profitable. (i.e., you can make profitable shoves all night long and still lose money to someone who selects the better alternatives). All it really tells you is that you shouldn't fold.
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Old 04-15-2009, 09:05 PM   #78
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Fabrizio, I don't want to say your wrong, cause you seem like you've put a solid amount of thought / research into i t, and im not really sure what stakes you play, vs a bad player, calling a hand w/ SD value like A6o / K2s / etc. OOP is not going to be a big mistake, because they will almost ALWAYS shut down and you will get to SD value a large % of the time after a cbet, which isnt even 100% of the time, HOWEVER, vs a good player, I think playing hands like this <25bb OOP is going to get you in ALOT of trouble, because, as I said, they do NOT play post, and player will be firing solid, accurate barrels, especially if you are calling fairly wide (as this seems to advocate) and therefore being forced to float alot of flops. They will also start vbetting SUPER light (as they should) and I think you'll end up being much more -EV than you would expect in these situations. Obv if you are playing a mediocre player who you happen to be a level above, you can overcome this by great OOP play in these pots, but vs a player of equal or similar skill, you will never be able to overcome that edge
This isn't going to win me poster of the year or anything, but I don't really want to go into all the details, except to say LOL that you would think I was talking about K2s.

Anyway, I generally agree that playing tougher players can change OOP hand values, but I think it's much more smooth than you're suggesting: that is, virtually all hands that you call with OOP lose some amount of value when you're playing a good player vs. a bad, generically (of course, if you're talking about a specific kind of bad, then hands that are targeted in a way to exploit their weakness go up in value relative to others). So as your opponent gets better, the pool of hands you should 3-bet AI instead of smooth-calling grows, since the 3-betting profit stays relatively the same. However, I don't think the hands you "lose" as calling options are necessarily the ones you think. There may be a bunch of borderline cases, where my results have been because my opposition has been too weak, or because I'm just a super-genius at postflop play or whatever. But a lot of hands that play very poorly postflop at 100+BB deep are some of the most profitable hands postflop 25BB deep. And a lot of the hands that are very profitable postflop at 100+ are total loss-leading dogs at 25. And they're not close.

To qualify, for the empirical side of my research, I've looked at stakes from $40 to $550, and compared how hand values change at different levels, though that is only a rough approximation for opponent strength. My most thorough data is around the $100-220 level, fwiw.

If you want to discuss any of this more specifically, PM me and maybe we can exchange some ideas one on one.
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Old 04-15-2009, 10:24 PM   #79
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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If you want to discuss any of this more specifically, PM me and maybe we can exchange some ideas one on one.
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Old 04-15-2009, 10:47 PM   #80
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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None of the analysis I've done is beyond anyone with PT3 and excel.
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Old 04-16-2009, 04:24 AM   #81
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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But a lot of hands that play very poorly postflop at 100+BB deep are some of the most profitable hands postflop 25BB deep. And a lot of the hands that are very profitable postflop at 100+ are total loss-leading dogs at 25. And they're not close.
This makes sense because the deeper the stacks the more opportunities there are for postflop betting, which further weakens bad postflop hands. I don't think PrimordialAA was suggesting the opposite though, rather than 25bbs is deep enough that they start to get difficult to play postflop. You shouldn't be flatting A6o at 100bbs or 25 bbs.
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Old 04-16-2009, 06:09 AM   #82
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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This makes sense because the deeper the stacks the more opportunities there are for postflop betting, which further weakens bad postflop hands. I don't think PrimordialAA was suggesting the opposite though, rather than 25bbs is deep enough that they start to get difficult to play postflop. You shouldn't be flatting A6o at 100bbs or 25 bbs.
For the record, I haven't said anything one way or the other about A6o. But regardless, my point was that I believe the common opinions and intuitions on the subject that many people have -- even some very strong players -- aren't necessarily backed up by the empirical evidence. So, no offense, but neither your opinion nor primordial's are all that important to me (at least in this area).
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Old 10-26-2010, 04:09 PM   #83
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

Very good post, Steve.
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Old 03-15-2011, 11:59 AM   #84
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

sry to make a sick bump here, I was doing a little check and I got some question regard these spots

http://www.pokerspreadsheets.com/spr...calculator.xls

and I found some "glitches" (well idk, glitches is not the right term) btw...
I was using the file above to understand certain situations and I check the first spot that OP made (shoving 22 against a 2/3 opener and 10,4 calling range)

First of all, pokerstove equity is different (obv non that much)



instead 37,94%

then, I checked the equity and I got this



While the total equity is pretty much the same, the folding equity is a quite bit different... in the excel file we got 168,81 while in the OP post we got 126,61...
The equity if called is -39,21 in the spreadsheet and - 45,57 in the post

Since I checked the calculations in the spreadsheet and they seem fine to me, I'd like to understand why some points are different, specially the FE...
ty guys and sorry again for the sick bump
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Old 03-15-2011, 05:02 PM   #85
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

Excellent post. One thing I'm curious about: If we know our opponent is simply folding the lowest part of his range, isn't his calling range going to be present more often when he raises in the first place? - simply because the lowest part of his range is folded pre before any 3bet takes place?

If say, 75% of his combinations aren't in his calling range, isn't a % of that 75% gone before a 3bet takes place? I think we need to find out his open-folding range before we can decide how often he is calling our shove.
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Old 03-15-2011, 08:25 PM   #86
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by canoodles View Post
Excellent post. One thing I'm curious about: If we know our opponent is simply folding the lowest part of his range, isn't his calling range going to be present more often when he raises in the first place? - simply because the lowest part of his range is folded pre before any 3bet takes place?
if he's opening 2/3 of the times he's actually folding his bottom range
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Old 03-18-2011, 07:04 PM   #87
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by ServerBTest002 View Post


While the total equity is pretty much the same, the folding equity is a quite bit different... in the excel file we got 168,81 while in the OP post we got 126,61...
The equity if called is -39,21 in the spreadsheet and - 45,57 in the post
I have mentioned it before I think, but there's a math error in the OP where I assume that folding is -50 cEV, not 0. As for the equity calculations, I'm not quite sure what's wrong -- I'll look into it. I may ask a mod to edit the correct numbers into the OP once I get around to checking them.

Thanks for the comments.
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Old 03-18-2011, 08:15 PM   #88
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by Insane_Steve View Post
I have mentioned it before I think, but there's a math error in the OP where I assume that folding is -50 cEV, not 0. As for the equity calculations, I'm not quite sure what's wrong -- I'll look into it. I may ask a mod to edit the correct numbers into the OP once I get around to checking them.

Thanks for the comments.
ty to u
btw I sent you a new pm, with a new image that explain what is wrong (for me)
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Old 02-09-2012, 04:38 AM   #89
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

Love the thread. Just read it and i am sure I have a few leaks to work on.

Was wondering if there is any articles/threads or videos on our calling range for this same situation.

Assume we are the button we min raised and Villain Jams....I need to work on ironing out what range of hands are best to call with at certain stack sizes.

If anyone has any advice and can point me in the right direction that would be great. Thanks,
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Old 02-12-2012, 02:18 AM   #90
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

That very highly depends on villain's tendency to three-bet preflop, just like these tables depend on villain's tendency to raise pre-flop. I can potentially make a basic thread describing this if you'd like.

Also there's threads with spreadsheets on endgame theory that may help.
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Old 02-14-2012, 03:59 AM   #91
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by Insane_Steve View Post
That very highly depends on villain's tendency to three-bet preflop, just like these tables depend on villain's tendency to raise pre-flop. I can potentially make a basic thread describing this if you'd like.

Also there's threads with spreadsheets on endgame theory that may help.
Thanks, I should be alright so don't worry about it. I am fooling around with the calc on husng, its helping me a bit.
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:24 AM   #92
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

i do not understand, i putted on sitngo wizard the 3bet shove with JTs against a 66.7% raiser with 26.1% call and it said the shove still would be profitable (+13 chips on a 500 x 500 chips battle on a superturbo hu blind 10-20, in the words 25BB x 25BB). inst sing wiz good for interpret this math?
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:34 AM   #93
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

with 78s i would loose only 15 chips on a unbelivable 70% raise 36.7% call!! this range call is the looser i can imagine! is the nash range shove!!! better than lose 20 on folding! inst shove or flatting opitional? (agaist a 66.7% raise still not bad: -19chips)
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Old 03-09-2012, 11:36 AM   #94
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

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Originally Posted by Mr. Cariry View Post
i do not understand, i putted on sitngo wizard the 3bet shove with JTs against a 66.7% raiser with 26.1% call and it said the shove still would be profitable (+13 chips on a 500 x 500 chips battle on a superturbo hu blind 10-20, in the words 25BB x 25BB). inst sing wiz good for interpret this math?
I entered the approximately same scenario to the 3-bet shoving Excel spreadsheet and you're winning ~0.71BB/hand. I don't know the exact answer if SNGWiz is good for calculating 3-bet shoving ranges or not, but the hand you posted if most definitely profitable to shove there.

//Edit: With 78s you're losing 0.86BB/hand in the long run taking into consideration the other parameters you gave.
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Old 03-10-2012, 09:15 PM   #95
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

in the words, not so bad!!! but flatting is really better...its a hand that flops well...=)
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Old 12-30-2013, 02:34 PM   #96
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

amazing post
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Old 03-24-2015, 12:49 PM   #97
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Re: (HUSNG Theory) Three bet shoving with 25BB effective

great post
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