Quote:
Originally Posted by bluemage55
Assuming you don't shove over the limp (which will cause villain to adjust), we can just do the math for the 40% that they open. I'm going to assume for now that you are 3bet shoving when you have A6o or better and folding when you have worse.
When you fold (77.4% of the time) you lose 1BB.
When you 3bet (22.6% of the time) you gain 0.90575BB:
0.774*-1 + 0.226*0.90575 = 0.5693005
So if you play 3bet/shove or fold against this villain's button raises, you lose ~0.57 BB every time.
The EV will obviously be different when you factor in how you call, but I'm not sure how to handle the complex calculations that come into play when you factor in calling and post-flop play. However, I find it likely that since you're never playing your top 22.6% and villain is raising with top 40%, not to mention playing OOP, you're going to be an underdog when you do call, so that -~0.57BB will not likely turn positive.
The 3bet shove itself is indeed profitable, but when that leaves you either folding or calling with a weak range the rest of the time, your strategy against button raises as a whole has a negative EV.
ur math is wrong, when villain folds you gain 2.5 + 1 bb (cause you had your blind it), use the equation I gave above to solve this.
Here:
%fold * $wonF + [ %called * %W * $wonC + %L * $lostC ]
let's say 25 bb deep is 1250 blinds at 25/50
% fold = .75
$wonF = $125 + 50 = 175
%called = .25
%W = .42246 (you gave above through pokerstove)
$wonC = 1300
%L = .57754 (again you gave above)
$lostC = -1200
so we get:
(.75 * 175) + [ 0.25 * ( (0.42246 * 1300) + (0.57754 * -1200) )]
131.25 + [ 0.25 * ( (549.198 - 693.048) ) ]
131.25 + [ 0.25 * ( -143.85 ) ]
131.25 + [ -35.9625 ]
+95.2875
which is +++++EV, SUPER SUPER +EV to shove here
edit: if you didn't see what you did wrong from above, it's this:
when he folds, you gain the pot (which is his bet + your blind) or 125 + 50 (3.5 bb)
when you are called when you shove, your blind is already in and doesnt matter, so you actually lose 24bb, not 25, your shoving 24 bb to win (25bb x 2) - 24bb, which means you either win 26bb or lose 24bb, so that was a big part of your problem