Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,987
I have an approach using what I call a Player Capability Index (PCI), that adjusts the ICM equal capability assumption for varying player capability. The adjustment is made by multiplying the players stack size by the index.
If 2 players are of equal capability in a 10-1 SNG their ROI would be -1/11 = -9%. You say you have an 8% ROI. The PCI equivalent to that is 1.45 determined by finding the stack size increase factor to yield 8%.
Now you assumed a 75 to 25 stack advantage so your ROI assuming equal capability is (0.75*20 – 11)/11 =0.36
Now we multiply the stack size of 75 by the PCI of 1.45 to account for your higher capability and your ROI increases to 48%. The win percentage increases to 81%.
As far as I know, this approach is novel and I would think there are other approaches that may be more conventional.