Poker Stars $5.00+$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 2 players

8th hand of the match.

He hasn't raised on his button yet. He doesn't call my buttons either. We mostly have been check/folding, the both of us. No notable hands I can go by, except maybe that the guy SEEMS fit or fold postflop.

My question is rather simple : I know we have a LOT of equity on this board. Two streets to go, and I'm running on an OESD/Flush draw/Overcards. I was planning to shove if he minraised, but he decided to go All-In, making me question what to do.

My thought process :

If he has a straight, his preflop raise is out of line I believe.
If he has a set, why go all-in for value ? A pot sized raise would've been more appropriate, no ?
He hasn't floated once yet, mostly folded to my bets on both high card/drawy boards.

What do you do here against a random villain ?
Fold, afraid of a set or straight who's trying to push you off a flush draw ?
Call, thinking you definitely have equity ?


Hero (BB): t1550 77.50 BBs
BTN/SB: t1450 72.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with 8 Q
BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero calls t40

Flop: (t120) 6 7 9 (2 players)
Hero bets t80, BTN/SB raises to t1390 all in, Hero ???

stop reading your comments after this to save myself from further tilt:
then saw the hand and there's absolutely 0% of opponents you should ever fold this against

I'm calling this allll day

Overthinkink yourself in folding this is really bad.

Actually doing it is punishable where I come from.

Eh, /sigh

What can I say, I just couldn't figure out any reason why someone would shove here unless they had a flush draw, potentially with a gutshot or top pair. I'm not entirely sure I'd discard a set/overpair from a shoving range here.

Here's what I assumed the guy would do this with that doesn't make his preflop raise complete nonsense.

66+, AsKs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s

Against this range, I don't see myself being a HUGE fvorite, no ?
Maybe I'm just overthinking this for no reason, you're right.

Wow.

You should download pokerstove and learn how to use it and you'll be able to run that equity calculation yourself. I did ya a favor and ran it using your worst case scenario range for your opponent.


Board: 6s 7s 9h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.194% 47.96% 01.23% 22792 585.00 { Qs8s }
Hand 1: 50.806% 49.57% 01.23% 23558 585.00 { 66+, AsKs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As5s, KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, Js9s }


So you are a coinflip against even the range you are afraid of with this hand.

Board: 6s 7s 9h

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.293% 52.43% 01.86% 71629 2546.00 { Qs8s }
Hand 1: 45.707% 43.84% 01.86% 59899 2546.00 { 66+, AKs, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As5s, KsJs, KsTs, K9s, JsTs, Js9s, T8s+, 97s, 76s, A9o-A8o, K9o, JTo, T8o+, 97o, 76o }

Against a slightly more reasonable range (still not enough spazz hands here for an average $5 player imo) you are a 54% favorite.

This is a pretty easy call. I know it's already been said several times, really wanted to post just to encourage you to download pokerstove and play around with equitys/ranges in spots like this. Learning to solve these problems yourself is extremely helpful imo.

He never has a set or a made straight here so this is definitely a call. You have 15 outs which will likely win it for you (9 spades + 3 non-spade 5s + 3 non-spade 10s) and the other 3 queens are potential outs here as well. I call and expect to see villain flip over air, 9x, 7x, or pair + a draw.

I do have PokerStove, but yeah... I haven't toyed around with it too much! I'll get right to it for future questions.

That being said, it may be +EV, but how then can we explain VILLAIN'S PLAY.

Let's turn this whole thing around.

Let's assume we're the villain. Readless on our opponent, if not for the fact that he did donkbet a few dry flops and I folded.

----

I'm holding A6 (I called and he had that) and make it 3x to go preflop. Villain calls.

Flop comes down 679

Villain leads OOP with 2/3 the pot. Do we have fold equity ? we're readless, how can we assume so ? Yet, he probably thinks this flop missed our raising range completely since we appear rather tight on preflop raises. If I shove, he is likely to fold.

SHOVE!

----

How does that line of action make sense ? Would it be, generally speaking, +EV for the villain to shove his bottom pair here ? Was the fact that I had Q8 just a cooler ? I can't figure out what his thought process was in order to just spazz out an All-in there.

You just have stop giving your opponents too much credit. Someone told me something a couple years ago I think it was "Caro's Law of Loose Wiring"? Basically it boils down to the fact that most of your opponents (at this limit) are just making this **** up as they go along. Your opponent doesn't have any clue what EV is. He probably is thinking, man I got a pair, last time I had a pair a guy hit a flush, SHOVE.

The bottom line in that hand is you have a strong hand even against his strongest of ranges just call and don't overthink it.

He could just be an idiot, especially at the $5 level, he could have tought that your donking with a gutshot 8x (which is true in this case) possible fd (again true) or complete air, doubt he'd have you on a hand as strong as the combo draw tho, either way vs a random villian if you run it on poker stove he's slightly ahead;

Board: 6s 7s 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.767% 54.21% 01.56% 580135 16674.50 { Ah6d }
Hand 1: 44.233% 42.68% 01.56% 456706 16674.50 { random}

maybe you donking into him a few times tilted him and he decided you have nothing, i wouldnt call the shove a standard way of playing this hand tho nor could it be +ev, hes never getting called by worse here imo, just be happy when this occurs and realise these players dont think too much at this level and call this down all day long.