Quote:
Originally Posted by PrimordialAA
yea yea understand completely what your saying, question is basically, if his range has Ax removed from it, what line/sizing can we take that maximizes our EV from our entire range.
So basically i'll put his range on the turn as this:
AA: 3/7 combinations
KK: 2/7 combinations
QQ: 2/7 combinations
TJs, JQs, KJs (2/4 combinations)
QKs, QKo, QJo, KJo (8/12 combos), TJo (10/12 combos)
KTo, KTs, QTo, QTs
J9s, 67s (1/4 combos)
and i'll put my range at something like:
88+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,8c7c,8d7d,8c5c,8d5d,7c6c,7d 6d,6c4c,ATo+,KJo+,QJo
so my ranges has 59.589% equity vs his range.
I'll assume on turn he calls 65% of his Jx hands (just guessing here, tough to tell), so he'll call:
28.6 combos of Jx, and 7 combos of QQ+
so he'll call 35.6 combos of 100 combos, so call 35.6% of the time (weird coincidence it came to nice math) if we jam.
So on the turn by jamming makes us (895 * .356 * .5213) **.5213 is our equtiy vs his 35.6 calling combos **
so we make 166.09 chips (5.536bb) by jamming turn, so a better solution will have to beat that. Not going to go through all of them, and not 100% sure jamming is def. the MaxEV line, but maybe you can come in now and finish it and give us a few other solutions that do well or beat it?
also obv I didn't add the FE part of calc on the turn and stuff, so to make it more logical:
turn jam yields:
960 + (895 * 5213) = 1426.56 when he calls
960 when he folds
he calls 35.6% of the time and folds 64.4%, so
1426.56 * .356 + 960 * .644 =
507.85 + 618.24 = +1126.09 for turn jam
can someone check that this is logical / math is right? Still would be interested to see your calcs/thoughts on other lines Sander