villain is an unknown, two-tabling reg.
i guess preflop and flop are standard. on the turn i figured that my options were to c/f and to triple barrell because alot of his QJ,99 stuff has a club, so betting one more street wasn't an option for me. that's why i picked a sizing that allowed me to bet a size on the river that gives me some leverage, living with the fact that he probably doesn't fold alot on the turn.

as for further reasoning: the K is obviously a better card for my range than for his, the only hand that improves is KQ, all his other hands should dislike that card because i can have AK,AQ,KQ,flushes,AA-QQ, basically i am repping a value range that isn't too tight. the ace and the T are most likely outs, which also helps my equity when barrelling.

do i see this too optimistic and should i just c/f against an unknown reg?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
Hero ($1,500)
($1,500)

Dealt to Hero A J

raises to $40, Hero raises to $140, calls $100

FLOP ($280) 6 7 Q

Hero bets $170, calls $170

TURN ($620) 6 7 Q K

Hero bets $290, calls $290

RIVER ($1,200) 6 7 Q K 8

Hero bets $900 (AI)

smaller flop c/f river imo

thanks for your opinion, but it would help me more if you commented on my thought process.

The only strong hand that can get to the river the way hand played is a flush,something like A9cc.
Given that this is a 3bet pot and people tend to play fast their draws in 3bet pots don't expect villain to show up with a flush here a high % of the time but it's still a possibility (may villain didn't want to play for stacks on a draw that deep).
Occasionaly he might have some 9T type of hand with a club that float flop with the gutter and turn the FD+2 GUTTERS.
Any other strong hand (set of sixes or sevens,two pair type hand:KQ,67) raise turn almost always when 3rd club hit.

That said,i expect villain to get to the river with some one pair type hand (QJ,QT,Q9,99 with one club)that will have a hard time to call the 3rd barell.
If villain isn't station enough to call QJ on the river i think that your thought proccess was great and villain will fold river a very high % of the time.

I dont think u should barrel turn and its bad to think that 99 isnt shoving pre.

barreling turn isnt all THAT bad but u have to barrel a non club river imo, and nobody gives anyone credit on the first hand so I would prolly just 3b, bet flop 1/3p and give up

The turn bet is what I'm not too happy with. As played, looks like u r making a b/f bet. The K helps u more than him so I would either bet bigger or x/r, and I prefer the latter..most hands in his range collapse to x/r here.

the thing is, alot of the stuff i want to fold out checks back the turn.

Yeah, that's true, but then u can lead out on a bricked river (just like here) and c/f on more dangerous river cards. I think that's better than a weakish-looking turn bet (from a thinking reg's perspective). Or alternatively, a bigger turn bet is preferable too I think.

It is a bit optimistic imo. what you can fold is either QJ or QT probably
(99 is not gonna call this turn, If he would, he will just 4bet shove pre instead.. is 99 with club call this turn
without read usually ??)
If a reg is two-tabling against unknown and calling twice like this, this 3-barreling is not
gonna work enough for you to make this move profitable.
Main problem is that I will be suspicious about your flop sizing at the flop. your line sounds like
rep'ing AA,KK or flush but Kc Qc are already out there.
If I had QJ with Jc and I don't believe that you will play AQ or AK like this, I am calling this river against a reg thinking that hands you are representing is actually tight.

looks okay to me if you dont have any crazy dynamics which would lead you to get snapped by A7 or some ****

Yea, looks fine, you should def barrel river at least some %age of the time.

Uh no, not really, because we don't rep Kx at all and villain probably never folds Qx once we make one river stab after repping nothing. If we had Kx I don't think we should ever x/r this with because as Ohly said, villain checks back a ton of his range here and we give random one club hands a free shot at their out if that happens.

I like betting flop a bit smaller, turn bigger and then shoving river for about same % pot. C/f river is also cool, depends on villain/gameflow and the card that hits.

I'm not sure I really like this on the first hand versus an unknown player.

Seems like a good spot if we have a little history. It should be a pretty bad leak if he does station up here if you have been playing straightforward.

turn barrel is like half way mandatory, not sure about the sizing thou, a bit bigger might be better, I don't think he is calling 700'ish river shove more frequently than 900 (which might be your thought process with the turn sizing).. You are not folding on turn (with your perceived range) very often if you bet but you sure r folding too much if you check.

The small turnbet narrows your range more to a high value range which leads him to level himself into calling on the river. I like a bigger turnbet and i believe it will work more often in these spots than a setup for a 3barrels vs most regs who just love to hero.

call pre. check-fold the flop. move onto next hand where you're in position.

Looks good to me, I agree that this is a better spot for triple barreling than for double barreling.

you serious? didn't play more than 25bb in quite some time, but i thought 3betting for value was kinda standard, at least suited?

flop is to thin, but i dont mind esp with deeper stacks which makes a raise less likely from most villains

overbet jam turn, u rep clubs better then he does (esp mid-low clubs) or some weird Kx/twopair that doesnt want to see another card in this super wet board (and even if he does have a pair and knows u have draws a good amount of the time... is he gonna call knowing he is either dead, or flipping ?)
just think of his range, way to many draws, and weak holdings, he is folding way more then enough to be good imo

how could you ever balance a turn jam

I think the hand is wp

why do u want to balance in a spot where u know he is folding tight for aforemention reasons
even with the somewhat top of his range its not an easy call in this spot

if i believe he is one of those villains who will see this jam as only draws and nothing for value (even disregarding the fact of either flipping or dead...) and will be stupidly hero calling pair
then i can be overbetshoving stuff like 67, some Kx, low flushes

I mean you def could, but I doubt it will be optimal.

Even if having an over bet range here was optimal, you def have better hands in your range to over bet w/(as a bluff), so I wouldn't choose this hand.