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***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** ***HU SNG REGS THREAD***

10-22-2009 , 08:59 PM
or is he making another point? i'm confused lol
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10-22-2009 , 09:03 PM
Course it's possible, I still want to put up $500 that you won't do it for your next 100 games.

You said you wanted to make the bet, we made offers so we're all ready to go?
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:05 PM
Oh yeah, and this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by pythagoras345
Thanks Starzz and Sejje.

I have played millions and millions of poker hands, so I understand hot and cold. I can tell you that this was neither hot nor cold, but just normal. I track percentage of top pair hits, 2 pair hits, set hits, draw hits and all-in EV expected value. Everything was right in line here.
Sure makes it sound like you think 35% ROI could possibly be "normal", and that you weren't running hot to get it. (you were, despite whatever stats you were tracking say. There's a whole hell of a lot more to "running hot" than just hitting the expected number of pairs)
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10-22-2009 , 09:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNixon
I won't argue that's certainly possible.

When the rest of us do that though, we realize we're running hot, and don't try to suggest that we could sustain it for any reasonable amount of time, or even that it would be a frequent occurence, like you did.
TROT, I NEVER SAID IT WAS SUSTAINABLE.
I NEVER SAID IT WOULD BE FREQUENT, ONLY THAT I BELIEVE IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN.

The key is this is my first 100 tourneys, so what I was looking for was to get a grasp on how solid of a run it really was. I don't have the experience like I do in the cash game. If I see a run in the cash game, I can immediately determine if it was good or not. If a guy runs at 20bb/100 over 20k hand, yes he is running good, but he almost certainly is a winner also.

So I was looking for answers like does this only happen to winning players? Can it happen to any donkey, and I could be a losing player?
Or somewhere in the middle, it happens a decent amount, but rarely to losers?

Never was I claiming or looking for a pat on the back. I been playing poker 8 years, and this is really my first 2+2 chain ever. Cause I wanted some feedback and info from players that had experience that I don't

And I guess I got it. And learned what I already knew. Poker players are pricks.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DopeyMcDope
Course it's possible, I still want to put up $500 that you won't do it for your next 100 games.

You said you wanted to make the bet, we made offers so we're all ready to go?
OMG DOPEY, Read my post, I said in the future it will happen, not the next 100.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:08 PM
Dude, I haven't read the posts from this topic. But simply, 35% roi is totally unsustainable. Depending on what games you play you can hit 20% if you play very slow structure games and have a smallball style but that will sacrifice hourly. You will not find a player with >20% roi over a 3k+ games sample.

EDIT: Okay, it probably will happen when you're running hot. You'll probably lose 60 out of a 100 out of a large sample. This is a stupid bet. I'm also not waiting for you to play 1k games or whatever.
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10-22-2009 , 09:09 PM
Mathematically, if you play an infinite amount of games, you will eventually win 100 in a row, too, even if you are just shoving every hand. What does that say about your question?

Spoiler:
It was a stupid question
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:12 PM
Hey, do you want to make a bet that I can flip 100 coins and it will all come up heads? I know I can't sustain this in the next 1k flips, or 100 flips, but I bet I can eventually get 100 heads in a row. Will you bet against me? I won't specify when this bet ends, or how many tries I get, you just gotta put the money up. Is that okay?
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TNixon
Oh yeah, and this:

"I have played millions and millions of poker hands, so I understand hot and cold. I can tell you that this was neither hot nor cold, but just normal. I track percentage of top pair hits, 2 pair hits, set hits, draw hits and all-in EV expected value. Everything was right in line here"

Sure makes it sound like you think 35% ROI could possibly be "normal", and that you weren't running hot to get it. (you were, despite whatever stats you were tracking say. There's a whole hell of a lot more to "running hot" than just hitting the expected number of pairs)
Oh my god you are a jackass. You cut and paste 1/2 my post to prove the exact opposite point of my post. Here is the very next 1/2 of that post:

Quote:
I understand what the cold runs do to your win rates – particularly the bad beat runs. They drop it way more that the hot runs inflate it. I also can look on sharkscope leader board and see that the highest sustainable win rates are about 20 - 22%, with as you state 10% being shark, 15% being royalty. So there is no bubble to burst here.
So the whole post is saying, i didn't suck out, he didn't suck out, cards came out as normal, and cards held up for me, so is was basically normal with nothing crazy one way or the other happeing. Then I go on to say (IN THE SAME ****ING PARAGRAPH), that a cold run drops you rate faster than any good one inflates it, meaning that I could be at 10% in 20 more tournies.I even quote the best possible long term win rate of 22% and that 15% is god-like.

AND YOU USE THAT POST TO INFER I STATE THAT 35% is SUSTAINABLE!
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10-22-2009 , 09:17 PM
which one of you fools wants to battle donny right fkn now??
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10-22-2009 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
... the whole post is saying, i didn't suck out, he didn't suck out, cards came out as normal, and cards held up for me
You don't seem to understand EV if you think AA winning 100% of the time is "normal variance".
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:24 PM
open challenge to any of my haterz on this forum...

name stakes and ftp sn...

peace betches.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pythagoras345
AND YOU USE THAT POST TO INFER I STATE THAT 35% is SUSTAINABLE!
No, I used that post to infer that you state 35% could possibly be "normal".

Which is exactly what you state, when you say you weren't running hot, and that everything looked about where it should equity-wise.

You claim you weren't running hot.

You were.

Just not in ways that you're measuring. And frankly, you still seem to be arguing that point.

All it means is that the set of things you tracked and check is flawed, not that it was a "normal" run.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nostalgica
You don't seem to understand EV if you think AA winning 100% of the time is "normal variance".
This too.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:28 PM
So we're supposed to bet you, but when does this bet end? I don't get it...

You also haven't won 71 out of 100 yet, have you? So it's not going to happen again, it'll happen for the first time, right?
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10-22-2009 , 09:29 PM
And yeah, it's at least somewhat of an insult for you to come here and basically say "hey, look, I had a monster ROI over this stretch, but I think I could do even better if I fixed a few flaws in hands that I played, what do you guys think?".

Whether that's what you're saying or not, that's how it's coming across, and frankly you're a moron if you couldn't figure out that's how a lot of people would read it.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donnyberretta
open challenge to any of my haterz on this forum...

name stakes and ftp sn...

peace betches.
are you one of those white boys who have your pants so low your boxers are showing, and speak like a black boy?
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:33 PM
One more time, for emphasis:

Quote:
I have played millions and millions of poker hands, so I understand hot and cold. I can tell you that this was neither hot nor cold, but just normal.
We all tell you that's not a "normal" run, and suddenly we're all jackasses?

Well played sir.

Well played.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:34 PM
at infinity anything is possible so obviously 35% ROI will happen at some point over a large enough sample and if I will play you donny
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10-22-2009 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by r1tony
are you one of those white boys who have your pants so low your boxers are showing, and speak like a black boy?
no actually i wear abercrombie or jcrew. mostly diesel though.

mad corny comeback dude...

and "betch" is commonly used phraze from youtube star ( the shoes / muffin ) guy.

owned.
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donnyberretta
no actually i wear abercrombie or jcrew. mostly diesel though.

mad corny comeback dude...

and "betch" is commonly used phraze from youtube star ( the shoes / muffin ) guy.

owned.
Yup..

so the Walmart ghetto hoodie in your pic is just a costume?

You have a taker to your challenge.. you going to honor it?
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donnyberretta
open challenge to any of my haterz on this forum...

name stakes and ftp sn...

peace betches.
someone take him up on it?
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by yaqh
someone take him up on it?
Thought 11t just did... oh and nice game on KingNohearts yahq.. he did sit a 50 right after ..
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by r1tony
Yup..

so the Walmart ghetto hoodie in your pic is just a costume?

You have a taker to your challenge.. you going to honor it?
stakes, screename? ...
***HU SNG REGS THREAD*** Quote
10-22-2009 , 09:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by donnyberretta
stakes, screename? ...
Ask 11t..
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