http://www.handconverter.com/hands/3076938

That is the hand, sorry for the format but the hand history converter is broken and this is the best idea I could find out.

Giving villain is a random player with "population tendencies", do you think double barrelling turn+river 1/2 pot can be a good decision given the following thoughts?

- If villain calls turn with a 4, 2 or an 8 pair, (plus not other draw) he will fold to a second barrel big % of rivers giving our range contains the A more often than his.

- Putting the case that he has a draw (FD or Gutshot) with no pair I think his call make us profit because we are having more eq% in the turn.

In the other hand...

- Our hand is value if villain has no made hand, thus our cbet can be senseless in that specific case.

- Also cases like when he has an A result on being spewy (which can be posible but is not so likely to happen).

Do you think my thoughts have sense in terms of profiting in HUSNGs? I have been triying to rationalize my game and take a thought on every spot I can but I was curious in this one, what do you think?

no, you have sd value.

Showdown value meaning you win some of the time by showing it down.

But having showdown value doesn't mean you shouldn't bet.

Example -

Showdown value might be +5 chips.

Barreling vs a specific opponent might be +10 chips



So just because a hand has showdown value, does not mean you shouldn't bet, or barrel... as doing so could have a higher expectation than the expectation of showing the hand down

And vise versa, some situations showing a hand down may be a higher EV than betting or barreling