How to calculate my win rate in spin and gos - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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How to calculate my win rate in spin and gos

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01-22-2018 , 01:47 PM

Iceman1123

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 26

Hey guys, I've been grinding spin and gos on ignition for a couple weeks, and I have a chart with over 1300 tournaments played. These range from $2 to $30 buyins, but they're mostly between $7 and $15 dollar buyins. I was wondering, based on my chart, how do I determine my expected ROI. It says I'm up 72,768 chips (Not sure why it's not a multiple of 500) over 1367 tournaments.

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01-22-2018 , 05:30 PM

dybboss

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 1,513

Hi there!
Firstly you must let go of the chips/game, it's irrelevant, when looking at graph tick on the left display all-in equity and calculate ev chips/game by this.

Secondly, if your actual chips won is greater than your cev its fair to assume that your cev would be lower than it is right now and vice versa

Thirdly, depending on the rake your games have depended on the stakes, you can calculate your long-term EVroi by this formula

and last but not least, read into this: https://smartspin.com/blog/article/w...out-ev-profit/

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01-22-2018 , 06:09 PM

Sev Mile Dogg

grinder

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 658

Lurk

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01-22-2018 , 08:25 PM

Iceman1123

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 26

Is all-in equity as important in such small bb formats? I feel like the all-in adjusted equity is skewed and doesn't include the fold equity you're getting, and the blinds that you steal. Or am I completely wrong here?

My all-in adjusted equity is at 45,129 in 1367 games. So that's only 33 chip ev per tournament. I tried using the formula you provided @ 7% rake and I must've messed up because the results I got were not even realistic.

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01-22-2018 , 08:50 PM

BigFredy007

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 240

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceman1123

It does include everything you mentioned. It just adjusts the normal chip graph in spots where a hand went all-in by the equity you had at the time you went all in.

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Originally Posted by Iceman1123

My all-in adjusted equity is at 45,129 in 1367 games. So that's only 33 chip ev per tournament. I tried using the formula you provided @ 7% rake and I must've messed up because the results I got were not even realistic.

Probably bc u are losing player with 33 chips/game with 7% rake

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01-22-2018 , 10:29 PM

Iceman1123

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 26

Well BigFredy007, what is the chip/game needed to be a break even player at 7% rake. I appreciate constructive criticism and real answers, I don't need your sarcasm. If you're not here to help out just get off the forums. We're supposed to be supporting each other here and helping each other out, not making jabs whenever we see the chance.

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01-23-2018 , 12:03 AM

BigFredy007

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 240

I just was saying u might get something you not expected bc you didn't expect a negative number. The formula is above, just put it the numbers and check it out. I guess, the break-even point at 7% rake is about 38 chips/game. To be fair your sample is not very large, so there is still the possibility that you running bad in terms of card distribution and that your true win rate is higher.

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02-16-2018 , 04:47 PM

felixxx1021

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 216

ChipEV to be profitable at spin and gos

Rake CEV per game
8% 44
7% 38
6% 32
5% 27

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10-05-2020 , 05:27 AM

stumbras

adept

Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 1,167

So ACR Jackpots 6% x 0.73(27% Rakeback) -4.38% and profit from 24 Chip EV?

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