Im not really sure about betting the turn, im checking most of my hands here but i do want to have a bluffing range and i think this hand is too strong to check/fold but doesnt have enough equity to check call a big bet, and i really didnt like check raising

All i know about this guy is that he is a bad recreational player who was doing a lot of min betting, so when he snap min raises im not really giving him credit

On the river im happy, and im thinking if he bets i beat some of his value, mostly a 3
however at that sizing i just think the nut flush is the worst hand he bets for value, although i think he bets the flop with the nfd.
At this point i really think he has aces or maybe kings. Most bad players tend to slowplay, and his turn sizing is one that will build the pot but one i can never fold to, and when he suddenly bets pot on the river in a spot where im going to have a lot of Ax and flushes, but no air and no kings, i just felt like he wouldnt try to get me off an ace and so i was happy to make this fold

what do yous think? can this possibly be a good fold?

I'd prob c/r all in, he will go broke with 3x

Da****? All-in the river.

All-in the river. You must focus on what he tells you he has not what you imagine he already has. The turn bet is perfect as you want to have some fold equity with those hands. You have Ax Kx in your range and some flushes, a 3 from time to time. You get raised here with 3x or Ax. The fl you forget you require blocking 2 outs so he doesn't t have that often. Good call on the turn. The river over bet is a snap shove. 3x are dead. You loose vs A3 K3 but they are not so many. Easy shove I may add

no, it's horrible

if he bet a normal amount i would have definitely check raised, but when he overbets i dont think he has a 3, as i either have a weak king or ace which wont call an overbet but probs will call a smaller bet, or a flush which beats him and could jam on him.
I dont think hes going to show up with enough bluffs in this spot, sure he could have QT with queen of spades i guess but i dont think he'd raise with that as he can profitably call with that imo.
This guy was a fish so he might be overvaluing an ace, but i think its much more likely he slowplayed AA/KK/A3/K3 OTF, and realised all my turn calls are going to be at least decent hand and he wanted max value.

Do you realise how unlikely it is for him to have Aa kk with an A and a K on the flop ? Do you call with AA on the flop or raise ? Flop or turn I may say. How about with kk? Either way he ll raise the flop or turn or river but never shiv directly. I mean we could argue that as you have 2fl he s unlikely to have one and shiv only nuts, but if you start folding a flush here what is your calling range in the same spot? Only AA or 33? This means that Ak you fold on this river. Actually I think he had 0 pp and bluffed like a cow

its just a pot sized bet

still polarizing though, hes not betting worse than a 3 and i dont even know if he'd go this big with a 3, because its pretty bad to value bet at this size and then fold to a jam, which is what he'd have to do

this is random fish, who knows what is he thinking, maybe guy just pots 3x and than snapcalls your jam, in which case your play is awful.

I would c/c this turn and not lead. People usually cbet most of their bluffs on this flop A-high flops and check back hands like 3x and weak Kx. Your hand really does not want to get raised by his trips and betting against Kx is just valueowning yourself. You even have a little bit of showdown value if he has some junk in his delay cbetting range.

The river is a clear call, but I prefer to lead here as he's very unlikely to bluff with this turn line and I'm afraid 3x or some slowplayed Ax will check back.

Yeah i was pretty unhappy with the turn probe and i did say i dont have much of a betting range here for the reasons you stated but i think as long as i have the intention to try barrell off a K on certain rivers it cant be too bad

On the river im usually never folding here. If i didnt realise this fold was insanely nitty i wouldnt have bothered making a thread about it. But as you said i dont think this line is usually a bluff, and in terms of hand selection he kind of just has to have some random spaz hand.

he will have 3x and worse flushes for sure... given the fact that you only need like 33% equity it's an extremely bad fold.

not sure i agree with this. Most players (both bad and ok ones) dont raise their draws in position, ESPECIALLY in a spot where they dont need the draw to come in to bluff the river. that combined with the chance he bets low flush draws OTF i dont expect him to have a flush here very often.

I dont see the value in betting pot with a 3, if i have an ace im definitely calling a smaller bet but may find a fold on this river. Also, if you bet a 3 this big youre kind of comitting yourself to call a jam which is a really bad thing to do.

I just saw this as either a boat or a bluff, and i think its pretty hard to have a hand that is bluffing that wouldnt cbet the flop

there are some flaws in your thinking, if you dont see value betting pot with 3x, that doesnt mean other guy will think same way + no way you are committed to call jam after pot bet.
Who knows, mby he is doing this with hand like AK.
I agree with you that this line is almost never flushdraw, imo this will be 3x hand most of the time. Like someone here mentioned when someone checks back this flop, it will be usually some kind of sd value, so 3x makes perfect sense here and if you think betting pot with trips is too much here that doesnt mean villain is thinking the same and I dont think his pot bet with 3x is bad here, I dont see random fish folding Ax, and some will call also Kx and imo its not worth betting something like 1/2 pot just to get few more calls from Kx hands.

Yeah not expecting a 3x in his range is a big mistake. You're are playing a random player at low stakes! He won't think very much at all

id call at least, its not even an overbet as you describe, can see him do this with any A, a 3 and some bluffs so yeah, worse would be a call, and a raise would be the better play