Villian playing just 51% sb, has donked flop 33%, albeit over 70 hands. Not sure If I made a mess of this. I just flat flop as I think this player is donking nearly 100% of monotone boards, and I don't want to fold out all that junk. After that I'm a bit lost..

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $20(BB) Replayer
($1,500)
Hero ($1,500)

Dealt to Hero 7 7

Hero raises to $40, calls $20

FLOP ($80) 8 7 9

bets $70, Hero calls $70

TURN ($220) 8 7 9 Q

bets $150, Hero raises to $340, raises to $1,390 (AI), Hero?

Raise flop, people love to call you down with a 9 or 8 if the board runs off clean and your making all his draws pay.

Dont flat that flop. Just get in it asap.

Yeah raise big on the flop, your set here is vulnerable and he's likely to shut down w/ hands like 9x and 8x if the board gets too scary, while he might be willing to get it in on the flop thinking you are getting fancy with draws.

Having redraws to a boat makes a big diff here OP, plus all the reasons given by others.

As stated above: only reasons to raise the flop.

"As played": The Q does not change anything, does it? It does not complete any draws. So yeah, I'm happy to call this shove and expect to see a pair + FD, a pair + SD etc. And the times you're behind, you're likely to have 10 outs to a FH.

dont miniraise pre
dont call flop
dont fold

Firstly, as played, get it in. The Q only completes JT to beat you, but it gives him a bunch of gutshots with the Jx and Tx stuff, which I think most people will gladly ship here if they have a diamond with it. Even when you are behind, you still have outs to a boat, so don't feel bad about getting it in here.

However, you really should raise this flop. I know you said that you want to keep his air in, but keep in mind that a lot of his air still has considerable equity on this board against you. You need to charge all of that random junk, or at least build the pot to try to get it in on blank turns.

Also, most players will really go wild here with a pair and draw on the flop, or with pairs with high kickers, hoping you to get it in with lower pairs and draws. Essentially, there is a lot of value on this flop that you lose by letting them get to other streets cheaply.

Thanks everyone, yeah I thought flatting flop was being unnecessarily tricky.
Why is minraise pre so bad?

its just so meh, i just find it easier with bet sizing on later streets

you also giving villian odds for calling pre with basically any hand, you are going to hate it if villian turns over simething like 52dd

pre is prob best vs a player as described. as played def raise flop you really don't want to see a turn w that hand

lol the Q changes none of these things.

lol, I'm ******ed. I don't know what I was thinking when I wrote that.

Disregard that thing about the gutshot, but I still play it the same.