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Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB

01-09-2016 , 01:49 PM
PokerStars - $14.39+$0.61|20/40 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players

Hero (SB): 59.03 BB
BB: 15.98 BB (VPIP: 60.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 21.43, Hands: 30)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 J

Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB raises to 3 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (6 BB, 2 players) 8 4 T
BB bets 2 BB, Hero ?

A call vs this 1/3 pot sizing is standard, as I don't think we have enough fold equity to shove, and we still have the opportunity to fold to a turn shove.
But I've got two other questions about this spot:

1) We shouldn't shove here against any sizing, right?

2) I would estimate that we should call bets up to around 200 here, and fold to bigger bets, assuming we've got 20% chance to improve to the best hand on the turn, we fold turn if we don't, and V is stacking off on the turn always. Am I close?
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 03:27 AM
.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 04:43 AM
I tried to respond to this when you first posted it but it didn't go through for some reason.

1) Probably not

2) You posted the hand in BB so I'm not sure how big a t200 bet is. I would call a 2/3 pot cbet for sure.

The correct line is definitely to flat and evaluate on turn.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 06:09 AM
I tend to fold pre here, although I'm not sure if its the correct play.

As played, I would ship the flop because
Quote:
I don't think we have enough fold equity to shove
I don't agree with this. Although you didn't state how much he raises limps, based on his 3-bet expect his range to be somewhat wide.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 08:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nefirmative
I tried to respond to this when you first posted it but it didn't go through for some reason.

1) Probably not

2) You posted the hand in BB so I'm not sure how big a t200 bet is. I would call a 2/3 pot cbet for sure.

The correct line is definitely to flat and evaluate on turn.
Villain bet flop 80 into a 240 pot, and had 556 behind after this bet.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 08:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bombardir
I tend to fold pre here, although I'm not sure if its the correct play.

As played, I would ship the flop because I don't agree with this. Although you didn't state how much he raises limps, based on his 3-bet expect his range to be somewhat wide.
Limp-calling here is pretty standard I guess. On the flop, getting 4:1, I think this is an easy call. My main question was if we should ever shove in this spot if his bet were larger, and how big a bet we should fold to.

I'm not sure how much fold equity we have here. He should know this flop hits my limp-calling range pretty hard, so I don't expect him to bet pure air here.

Last edited by obbudsman; 01-12-2016 at 08:59 AM.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 01:11 PM
There is no sizing you can fold to on this board with this hand.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 01:25 PM
Correction: he's got 439 behind after betting, so he gets 1.7:1 when we shove
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyriver
There is no sizing you can fold to on this board with this hand.
Could you explain why you think we've got, for instance, 41%+ equity when he shoves?

Last edited by obbudsman; 01-12-2016 at 01:58 PM.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-12-2016 , 03:33 PM
Because we likely have more than enough vs his shoving range.
From my experience if villain shoves, you are going to see something like overcards (AJ+), pp something like 99, 33-77, and very rarely overpair.

Just to give an example of what I've seen when villain raised preflop being bb and shipped over pot on the flop:

Spoiler:



Tiny sample because I don't have as many hands in current db, but I think showing at least some mentioned tendencies.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote
01-13-2016 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by crazyriver
Because we likely have more than enough vs his shoving range.
From my experience if villain shoves, you are going to see something like overcards (AJ+), pp something like 99, 33-77, and very rarely overpair.

Just to give an example of what I've seen when villain raised preflop being bb and shipped over pot on the flop:

Spoiler:



Tiny sample because I don't have as many hands in current db, but I think showing at least some mentioned tendencies.
Thanks. Nice indication of what kind of hands you can expect here, despite the sample. Wasn't aware that so many marginal hands are shoved here among the population.
Facing iso-cbet with OESD+over on wettish flop, 16BB Quote

      
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