Facing flop lead at 10bbs - Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos -- Two Plus Two Poker Forums

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Facing flop lead at 10bbs

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01-06-2016 , 12:16 PM

baldbear

newbie

Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 45

iPoker - €1.90+€0.10|<> NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 15.38 BB
BB: 9.63 BB (VPIP: 44.00, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 28.57, Hands: 25)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T

Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 3

BB bets 2 BB, Hero raises to 14.38 BB and is all-in, BB calls 6.63 BB

Turn: (19.25 BB, 2 players) 4

River: (19.25 BB, 2 players) A

Hero shows T

(One Pair, Fours)
(Pre 65%, Flop 47%, Turn 20%)
BB shows 4

(Three of a Kind, Fours)
(Pre 35%, Flop 53%, Turn 80%)
Hero wins 5.75 BB
BB wins 19.25 BB
villain stats: 25hands
2b 25 limp 25 flat 29 3b 29 Ldonk 1/5
notes about villain
3b 2x 66 14
mrc a8o 6

What do i do? considering his bet i think he might have made hand. I added few draws and:

I have 47% equity. I know it's enough to call but how to calculate if i could shove profitably?

kind regards

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01-07-2016 , 06:58 AM

crazyriver

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 1,732

You need to calculate the ev of shoving, i.e.
(% he folds) * (pot you can win when he folds) + (% he calls) * (your equity vs his calling range) * (pot you can win when he calls) - (% he calls) * (his range equity vs your hand) * (amount you lose when you ship)

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01-07-2016 , 07:07 AM

grinder4all

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2015 Posts: 1,792

Problem is if he's got a higher spade than yours you're drawing pretty thin.

I don't expect to have any fold equity but meh, probably just GII as well.

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01-09-2016 , 05:27 AM

Bombardir

adept

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 1,177

I would muck the flop readless. There are players at micros who will pot the flop and then fold to a shove with less than 10 BB, in which cases this is an auto shove. Against most opponents i don't expect fold equity. Your draws are also very weak since making a straight or pair may not be good enough. Also often he will have a bigger spade here.

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