Hello i, i new to this forum. I want to learn more about HUSNG poker so i joined 2+2. And I have a question about a calculation i don’t know if i’m on the rigth way.

Preflop
SB limp 20
BB check
Pot 40
Flop potsize 40

I want to donkbet the flop and i assume SB will fold 50% of the time and 50% Sb only call. My betsize is 30. My calculation
50% of the time i win the pot 40
50% of the time i loose my bet of 30

My expectation = (0.5*40)-(0.5*30)= 20-15 = 5 chips
My expectation is to win 5 chips with my bet.

Turn potsize 100

I assume that 30% of the turn cards are bad for me, so i check fold the hand.
I assume when i bet SB never fold and the river will be checked out. My equity in the hand is 25%.
If i don’t check i want to lead 30 in a pot of 100.
My expecation for the turn.

30% i loose the pot because i check fold -100
70% i bet 30 and i will win 25% the pot 130, 75% i will loose my bet of 30

My expectation is
EV = 0.3*100 + 0.7*(0.25*130 + 0.75*-30)
EV = -30 + 0.7*(32.5 - 22.5)
EV = -30 + 0.7*10
EV = -30 + 7
EV = -23
Expectation turn -23chips. Expectation flop +5chips

Is the expectation for the whole hand (flop 50%*5)+(turn50%*-23)= 2.5+ -11.5 = -9chips?

So can i say my expectation of this play is -9chips?
Is this a possible approximation for a turn hypothesis?
Is the math correct?

I hope you can help me. Thanks

You are confused by using different reference points.
There is nothing wrong with constantly using different reference points as long as you stay consistent.
Your inconsistancy caused confusing and consequently inconsistent determination of profit, losses and investment that caused in turn incorrect EV math.
Which in turn gave incorrect comparison of different strats.

Your flop calc
The reference point you used is start of flop play.
Therefore every chip in the middle before flop play by you AND every chip placed in the middle by your opponent from start of the hand is seen as profit. Meaning if opponent folds you get 40 chips.
Therefore every chip placed in the middle during and after flop play by you is seen as investment. Meaning if your opponent does not folds you loose 30 chips.
Your math and EV is correct.
In this case you proved that this strat is 5 chips better then posting your big blind and giving up 100%. Why? With this reference point, posting a big blind and giving up 100% equals an EV of 0.

Turn play.
The reference point you used is before blinds are posted; this because you wrote
Although the exact number is incorrect; the fact you wrote -100 tells me you wanted to figure out things from start of hand. With start of hand I mean before blinds are posted.

Therefore every chip in the middle before start of hand by you (zero obviously) AND every chip placed in the middle by your opponent from start of the hand is seen as profit.
Therefore every chip placed in the middle during and after start of the hand by you is seen as investment.
Here you messed things up.

you check fold
freq= 0.30 / results = -50 (you placed 50 chips in the middle since start of hand because the turn pot size is 100)

you bet and win
freq=0.7*0.25 / results = +80 (opponent placed 80 chips in the middle since start of hand; 50 because turn pot size is 100 + 30 because you betted 30 and saw a call)

you bet and loose
freq=0.7*0.75 / results = -80 (you placed 80 chips in the middle since start of hand)

sum of above = 0.3*(-50) + 0.7*0.25*80 +0.7*0.75*(-80)= -36.3

Placing a big blind from start of hand costs you 20 chips. Meaning placing a big blind from start of hand and then giving up 100% of the time results into -20.
And such the above proves that this strat is 16.3 chips worse then just posting your big blinds and giving up 100% of the time.

Both strats combined teach us that we clearly want to use the flop strat (for because see up) but do not want to use the turn strat (because the turn strat is just worse then posting a big blind and then giving up 100% of the time).
However the above sentance is comparing with to posting a blig blind and giving up 100% of the time.

We actually want to figure what the min required EV has to be of any turn strategy after you applied the flop strategy. This is easy; your flop strategy is 5chips better then posting big blind and 100% giving up.
Consequently wathever turn strategy you want to use (with turn starting stacks of 100) has to perform min 5 chips better then posting the big blind and 100% giving up; if not you were better off by just using your flop strategy and then giving up.

Read through above and think each time clearly about your reference points. Once use of correct reference points sinks in; the math becomes easy.

Thanks, this is really helpfull.

1 thing i don't understand you say

"Meaning placing a big blind from start of hand and then giving up 100% of the time results into -20.
And such the above proves that this strat is 16.3 chips worse then just posting your big blinds and giving up 100% of the time"

But the profit i make on the flop +5 chips doesn't count in this calculation?

Because i did this

Is the expectation for the whole hand (flop 50%*5)+(turn50%*-36.3)= 2.5+ -18.15= -15.65. Or is this a wrong expectation?

And i only must take the turn as a reference point to search for a play 5chips or better?

thanks

The turn EV I calculated assumed you are clueless what happened before the turn. You just know that you are at the turn with a pot of 100. Translating into you having added 50 to pot and opponent having added 50 to pot from start of hand.

By ignoring everything beforehand besides the requirement of doing better then +5 compared to posting big blind and then giving up; we actually do not have to insert any flop play in our calculations to figure out best turn strategy.

However; you can always do the following:
bet flop - opp folds
freq ... results ...

bet flop - opp calls - check fold turn
freq ... results ...

bet flop - opp calls - bet turn & win
freq ... results ...

bet flop - opp calls - bet turn & loose
freq ... rsults ...

sum ...
substract from that the absolute value of posting big blind & give up to see whether you are doing worse/better then posting big blind & give up

See that the subtracting is better then 5 to figure out whether incorporation of turn play improved/deproved your flop play.

In the end the absolute values depends on the reference point we use.
The difference between our absolute value of our strat AND the absolute value of posting big blind and giving up never changes.
It is always the difference we care about.
The bigger the difference the better.

Related to your 5 chips difference. Choose wathever reference point you desire. Then calculate absolute value of the turn strat. Then calculate absolute value of posting big blind and giving up. Difference has to be min 5 chips. If not; your turn play results in throwing away the profit from flop play.

===================================

Now reading the above; I think you are best suited to just use
freq1 ... result1 ...
freqx ... result x ...
sum ...

for only using flop (same reference point)
then for using flop and turn (same reference point)
compare to see which strat is best
do new math for other 'potential situations' & compare

I think my shortcut confused you more than it helped you.

However, I think you are getting the reference points right now.

This helped a lot.

I've now got a better understanding of how to approach this.

Thanks

I think I understand the reference points more.

Let see i understand it rigth.

I an other situation like a 3bet pot

Sb open 40
BB 3B 100

Let say the expectation of the 3B = EV+20chips

We see x% of the time a flop.

Is the reference point at flop is the same as in the previous example. I have to search for a play on the flop to make +20chips or more. Otherwise i'm better of folding?

Thanks

I think I made a major mistake.
I am using CREV already so long (where you only have to do interpretation of the math that I explained it initially wrong).

Technically the correct way to look at is once you arrived at flop; you want lines with resulting EV that is better than 100% folding at flop once you arrived there.

Therefore, for your 3b question:
Folding at flop once you arrived there equals -50
If a flop play results ie nto -45 your flop play is good as you did better then folding at flop.

Therefore, for your initial turn question:
folding at turn once you arrived there equals -50
If a turn play results ie into -45 your turn is good as you did better then folding at turn

Sorry for mess up and confusion.

Never mind i understand it now. Thanks, really helpful!

I read you prefer CREV more then ICMizer and flopzilla

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/18...71/index2.html

I'm now gonna start to use those programs, what would you recommend

first flopzilla and ICMizer or only CREV or all together?

I think my words up there are still good.

I only use CREV but learning curve is steep.

I gonne paste push in the back I PM'ed to someone requesting some assistance with CREV @ 2+2 recently

===

Hi,

it will take you 8 a 24 hours to study and memorize every single tutorial text & tuturial vid Scylla has made about CREV.

Then it will take you 20 a 200 simulations before you will become capable to set-up random trees with CREV when you want to figure out an idea.

I am sorry; there is no short-cut.
Start-out easy.
ie openshove/fold vs call/fold
ie MR/fold 3bs/fold call/fold
ie MR/fold call/fold BB checks flop SB shoves/folds BB calls/fold

Good luck.
Emus

thanks for the advice!

Sound as a lot of work but i have the time

i also posted this question on husng.com

http://www.husng.com/content/ev-calc...-flop-and-turn

also interesting feedback