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Old 03-06-2012, 07:03 AM   #101
alexrjl
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Anyone wanna give me odds on emotionx winning the redline bet but losing the greenline?
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Old 03-06-2012, 07:25 AM   #102
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post


couldnt resist
i lol'd



Webcam seems a bit unnecessary, but w/e not too crazy

Redline on the other hand seems ridiculous. Why not account for flop distribution as well or who gets the most high cards/pairs preflop? Why not just play a few games and have a panel of 5 impartial top husng players decide who is best and give the $10k to them. f ******ed.

If you wanna reduce the variance you could just add a few hundred more games, but would drag on a bit. Can anybody calculate at given ROIs vs no. of games played and % chance of worse player winning? like say 1% ROI to 5% ROI
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Old 03-06-2012, 07:43 AM   #103
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

^**** it

get the webcam

get the redline

DOOOOOOOOOOOO THIS SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIT
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:10 AM   #104
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

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Originally Posted by TGSM89 View Post
If you wanna reduce the variance you could just add a few hundred more games, but would drag on a bit. Can anybody calculate at given ROIs vs no. of games played and % chance of worse player winning? like say 1% ROI to 5% ROI
ROI is irrelevant in a sidebet HU4ROLLZ. Winrate is easier to work with and makes more sense because rake is not taken into account.

I posted some winrates/odds a few pages back.
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Old 03-06-2012, 08:52 AM   #105
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

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ROI is irrelevant in a sidebet HU4ROLLZ. Winrate is easier to work with and makes more sense because rake is not taken into account.

I posted some winrates/odds a few pages back.
So if somebody has 51% winrate they will win 73% of the time over 951 games?

What about 52 or 53%?

how does it change if you add 500 games?

what is the equation you use here?
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:03 AM   #106
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Quote:
Originally Posted by TGSM89 View Post
So if somebody has 51% winrate they will win 73% of the time over 951 games?

What about 52 or 53%?

how does it change if you add 500 games?

what is the equation you use here?
Yes.

You figure it out using the following equation and wasting a year of your life:

Where n is the sample size, k is the number of successes, p is the probability of success.


..Orrr you could use the binomial calculator at HUSNG.com: http://www.husng.com/content/binomial-calculator
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:06 AM   #107
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

You just have to use a binomial calculator.

http://www.husng.com/content/binomial-calculator

Edit: Too late.
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Old 03-06-2012, 09:47 AM   #108
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

I have a strong feeling BadMofu is negotiating the ftp deal
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Old 03-06-2012, 10:33 AM   #109
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe Pulaski View Post


couldnt resist
lol. The cat esp. cracked me up!!!

But seriously, teamviewer or some vpn and technically emotionx (even if u know what he looks like) could sit by the webcam giving you thumbs up everytime you chat 'hey, thumbs up if it's you' while his buddy continues playing on the side for him. This is really impossible to monitor unless u guys are sitting Battleship style. And fwiw, he doesn't know if you have someone playing for u either. I do understand your worry in this format tho, one never really knows...
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Old 03-06-2012, 10:57 AM   #110
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Its the fact how confident he is to do this that worries me. He's not like "ya, I think I have edge, you're new to this format and I have been playing them for a while, so I think its a +EV spot for me and worth a shot". That would be understandable.

He's seen my graphs, he knows I'm not a fish by now and he even played me for 270 games and lost. He should've figured by now that I have been making a living playing poker for the last 6 years, so, much longer then him, I assume. Add to that his 0.0% ROI in $200's over ~8500 games (yeah dude, nice job blocking those stats lol), where I assume he played weaker opposition in general.

I just don't get how he can be so eager to do this, like, even if you do think you are +EV you can't possibly be THAT sure. To me he is either very ignorant or is planning to angle me somehow.

Even if $10k might not be worth the hassle to organise a complicated angling scheme, don't forget that in poker ego's play much bigger roles then money. This guy clearly has a grudge for me, he really, REALLY wants me to fail. Sometimes it means more then money.

This deal sounds very good and favourable to me, perhaps too good, and when it sounds too good to be true it usualy is.

Its not the losing $10k that worries me as much. If you look back into my history you'll see why. I am happy to play out this HU4rollz and I will be cool with losing and admitting my defeat, as long as I know everything was fair and that I won't have to second guess myself later if I was scammed or not. I know he will probably adjust his playing style more then once during the games, so I want to be sure it's him out-leveling me and that nothing else is goin on.

If you think about it, I don't know who he is, and doesn't seem like many people do, he doesn't even want to show his face in public. Where on the other hand, many people know me, my name, my face, chilled with me in person etc.

I will be very very specific about the non-angling webcam thing and other stuff.

I might ask emille to confirm his name/face combination by showing ID (where he can cross out everything but 1st name and face). This shouldn't be a problem, as I dont need his last name or any other details.

I might ask to turn the webcam towards the screen etc etc.

And obviously, everything goes both ways, I will abide these requests as well.

Last edited by BadMoFu; 03-06-2012 at 11:06 AM.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:04 AM   #111
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

i'd ask him for more paperwork, don't do this so lightly badmofu
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:13 AM   #112
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

For all my interactions with Emilio he has been a stand up person. I'd vouch all of my 2p2 and poker rep that he will not angle shoot you in any way. I'm sure you'll find plenty of others on this forum who would do the same.

He's a very confident player and likes to exude confidence in his public persona online (who doesn't for that matter? Much easier and more fun being big and macho online than in real life ) which I'm sure is why he has sounded so eager to take you up on your offer--remember that you attacked his rep and skill by posting those things about him, so clearly it will make him more emotional and more willing to fight vs you.

Plus, look at things from a more rational standpoint--I don't think any high stakes reg would want to be complicit in scamming someone and use up their time and risk their rep for someone else--it's too high risk and we're all either to selfish to do it for someone else, or too selfless to do it to scam someone else.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:19 AM   #113
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

That's a good input, thank you coffee

Of course I will try to stay within reason with my "demands". Don't think there will be much more then I have already posted.

All the other things are the stakes we play and # of games and escrow person. For the last part - I suggest Fishenzon, I can ask him to do it, hope he will agree, hew obv a well known and reputable HS reg and I know him in RL. Any objections?
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:26 AM   #114
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

As coffeeyay said, Emotion is a young and confident player who knows he is taking a risk but he's got plenty of time to make back the money if he loses. It's clear from talking to him he likes to gamble and we've had a few matches where I've ended up quitting because I didn't want the hassle of a reg war. I asked him why and he didn't think either of us had a great edge, he just wanted to play more, put himself under pressure and improve as a player.

Hyi, I can understand why you want the match to be properly regulated and I see why you want to make sure it's him but by now you'll know his style and vice versa so you won't need constant supervision. Perhaps just one or two times per session would be enough. Keeping an eye on the webcam would probably just distract you anyway.

I wouldn't bet on this match. I've found both players tricky to play against and it could go either way. I'm just looking forward to watching it!
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:36 AM   #115
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Quote:
Originally Posted by BadMoFu View Post
I might ask to turn the webcam towards the screen etc etc.
So you can see his cards :P?
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:44 AM   #116
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

"hew obv a well known and reputable HS reg and I know him in RL." (fishenzon)

funny u say ur scared of someone else playing by myself with this situation.. lol name me one good hu player living in madrid atm.. none

im pretty bored of this im just gonna keep out of this until you say to play instead lose more of my time, as i said anything between 900 - 1k games is fine, 100$ or 200$ stakes as u wish , red line as u demanded, i can suck your **** too if you desire

and escrow should be named publicly here imo, even tho i trust fishenzon
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:50 AM   #117
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

What an E-dick...
Take it down BadMoFu, as much as I like emotion he definitely needs to be taught some humility imo.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:53 AM   #118
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

+1.

#TEAMBADMOFU
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:56 AM   #119
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Red line can be manipulated.

For an extreme example say you're up 1 BI with one game left. You can just shove every hand preflop and be guaranteed a win.

This extends to more games, the change in equity is not as big with 10 games left, but the person in the lead will still benefit from -ev preflop aggression while the person behind needs to try to get his money in as a massive favorite.

Green line may not be perfect, but at least in a format like this it guarantees that playing each hand in the most +ev way is optimal.
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:57 AM   #120
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

haha coffee (L)
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Old 03-06-2012, 11:58 AM   #121
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

@ibavly, can't you lose more than 1BI in EV in a game?
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Old 03-06-2012, 12:00 PM   #122
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Quote:
Originally Posted by u cnat spel View Post
@ibavly, can't you lose more than 1BI in EV in a game?
yeah, but not if you shove every hand preflop.

Edit: I guess it is possible in a certain situation, if you win several pots pre, then lose an AI as a significant dog, then win an AI as a significant dog, but the vast majority of the time you will end up losing less than 1BI EV.

Just to show the absurdness, down one BI, first hand of the match you get dealt AA and he shoves. You obviously have to fold.

Last edited by ibavly; 03-06-2012 at 12:07 PM.
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Old 03-06-2012, 12:14 PM   #123
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

ibavly has a point. But that's a very minor thing to worry about. The EV line manipulation comes into play only at the very end of the games played, and if the line is close to zero. And the effects are minor. Plus, both sides have an equal chance to end up on the "good" and "bad" side of the manipulating options.

Ok, Emillio.

How about this. Many people have left good feedback about you. And I am willing to start this faster and get it over with.

So I can forget the webcam thing. Then we downsize the sidebet to $5000. Play the games out at $100's. 1000 games. Get the redline result at the end. Who is up more (or down less if we're both down to rake) wins. We play 2 tables at the start of every session and open 3rd-4th is we both agree, and either side can close the 4th-3rd table at any time, leaving 2. We try to play 200 games a day, but leave room for skipping some (I have some apps coming up). Disconnects count toward results.

We can start even today, I can call Fishenzon and ask if he escrows. If there are objections you can offer another escrow and we start when the money is shipped.

Last edited by BadMoFu; 03-06-2012 at 12:26 PM.
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Old 03-06-2012, 12:32 PM   #124
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

Anyone want to take my $330 (emotionx) to your $200 (hyi_vam)?
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Old 03-06-2012, 12:36 PM   #125
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Re: ** emotionx vs hyi_vam hu4rolls 10k bet **

I do

I get $330 if I win, I pay $200 if emotionx wins?
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