Can we fold when villain shoves the river?

Probably not imo.

if he shoves pot will be like 1660, with us needing to call 660...so with TPTK, folding is not a good idea, just due to pot odds

Three questions to whoever is kind to answer them:


1. Aren't we kinda valuebetting us to death sometimes?? I mean there are some draws that missed by the river that aren't calling us. Sure there are some T's calling us.. but there are a lot of 9's too. He said villain isn't aggressive, so is definitely possible that he's just calling his trips right?

2. We are jamming river just because of pot odds or are there any other reasons? Are we taking into account that there are some 9's in his range and so we should just jam?

3. Passive villains aren't normaly open jamming this river right?? I mean if he missed his draw .


Well i just want to say that if i were in this game i would definitely shove river and pray that he's got a ten and not a nine.., but i just want to know what are the real reasons for that.


Thanks

I think the times he calls us with Tx out weigh the times he calls us with 9x, so its a worthwhile shove. I also feel that 99 3bs pre,overpairs 3b pre, and 66/78 c/r the flop.

so we can shove and get called by Tx,9x and get folds from missed draws. it is also noteworthy that although 9x beats us, and may play their hand in this fashion, the probability that they have 9x vs having Tx is greatly discounted once the 9 pairs on the turn

Actually since we have a ten, there are two remaining nines and two remaining tens. Most of the reason for discounting 9x as a percentage of his range is the line he took. Is it possible? You bet. Is the frequency high enough that we should check? Nope.

You do know that when jamming the river that pot odds dont come into account right?, the only thing that matters is our equity against his calling range.

"having some nines in his range" will not make make up for the fact he has even more tens in his range. Also not been mentioned but we can also expect a call with a 6 here occasionally vs the $10 player population and even against a few regs levelling themselves into calling.

Mersenneary said it but I just want to clarify:
The reason we are not "value owning" ourselves OTR here is that since he donked the flop he will have more Tx than 9x in his range. The normal reflex OTF when ppl have 9x here is "i just want to get to showdown so i check" but with Tx they think "good hand, guess ill try this bet button".

Since getting stacks in isnt a problem after the flop gets raised your turn sizing should just be what get the widest range to call the river. You accomplish this really well with 260. But IMO 280 would be very slightly better.

Ok , good answers, thanks people <3

What if he bets decent river, or openjams river. Does any one of those options change our play? Kinda hard to call vs this particular villain if he takes that line, right?


AGRETZOR: I don't quite agree with you , i mean why can't it be possible that he bets his 2nd pair to see where he is. You're just pretending to know how a certain villain reacts when in fact there aren't hard rulez on why people can donk (it could have been also tryiing to draw QJ, ) 87 is already there.. , and i've seen it all