Hi guys,

is it possible to calculate the winrate from the cEV value? In my opinion, that should be possible. For example, I'm playing 1k Spin & Gos and archiving 90 cEV per game. That means I won in total 90k chips. 90k divided by 1k = 90 (if I win a game, I win 1k chips (two stacks of 500 chips)) ... so 90 games won. Then there are still 910 games left. Now, these 910 games have to be split up so that I get exactly 0. If I lose a game, I'm 500 chips down, if I win a game, I'm 1k chips up. So 2 loses and 1 win gives 0 ... that means I won exactly one-third of these 910 games (= 303.33333 = 304). So that means that I won a total of 90 + 304 games (= 394). The winrate should be 394 / 1k * 100 = 39,4 %. But the whole calculation seems to be not working ... my results from PT4 do not match with the values from my calculation. But why? Are cEV and winrate independent of each other?


Thanks in advance and best regards,

korkelton

Are you talking about cev, or about chips won? You could use your cev to calculate an evwr, maybe (?), but no reason it would match up with your actual results.

Yeah, sorry ... my fault. I meant chips won to winrate or cEV to expected winrate (but PT4 doesn't calculate the expected winrate I guess).

My calculation above concerns to chips won to winrate.

Hi,

15s and 30s
32Cev is b/e,5.32 per 1%
1%=38
2%=43
3%=48
4%=54
5%=59
6%=64
7%=70

40s
38Cev is b/e,5.38 per 1%
1%=44
2%=49
3%=55
4%=60
5%=65
6%=71
7%=76

60s and 100s
27Cev us b/e,5.26 per 1%
1%=33
2%=38
3%=43
4%=48
5%=53
6%=59
7%=64

Thats EV roi per Cev,$7s are roughly the same rake % as $40s so similar numbers

Yeah, but that's not my question. I wanted to know why the conversion from chips won to winrate doesn't work as I aspected.

Today I found something very interesting: In PT4 under the section "Results", there's an option to show the total amount of chips won at each game. Sure, 1k chips for every single game I've won, but there are also some games where I lost 200 chips or 300 chips or 90 (something in between 0 and -500). But why? If I'm losing a game, I'll also lose 500 chips ... well, that was my assumption till now. For this matter, also my calculation from my first post doesn't work properly. So does anybody know why there are also some values between 0 and -500 for lost games? How does PT4 calculate those values?

Because you're missing hands.

So you mean there might happen an error during the import of hands?

Anybody an idea how to solve this issue?

get the missing hands from ps and import them

And you did not think that I would have come to this solution? Furthermore, this does not solve the problem that this will continue to happen. Helpful answers would be more what I would like. But who am I to express wishes here ...

Anyway, my original question was a different one. But apparently, nobody has ever tried to convert cEV to winrate EV. It makes much more sense to look at the winrate concerning Spin & Gos. It is very easy to create forecast graphs in Excel to simulate the variance and how often big multipliers occur. With cEV it's not that easy to simulate such things.

Here an example: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Npc...ew?usp=sharing

I don't know as I'm not a mind reader, but given you're asking random forum users rather than talking to official PT4 support it wouldn't surprise me if you hadn't thought that far ahead.

Re your other post -- swongsim already does a more or less fine job converting cev to winrates, broadly speaking what you're asking about has already been doable for years.

Alright, thanks a lot.

Here's the formula you wanted.

590 / 1500 = 39.(3)%. So you win 39.3% of the games

Wow, you are right. I have not thought that it would be that easy. But yeah, it makes sense.