i think ChipEV variance is the lowest one of them all, followed by EV adjusted results, then actual results being the one with most variance.
when i look at my ChipEV graph there is almost no downswings, only breakeven stretches of around 200-400 games.
My ChipEV graph:
the actual results graph will follow the ChipEV graph somewhat, so if your ChipEV graph is good, then your actual results will also be good.
this means just look at your ChipEV graph every 500 games or so and you'll have a good idea whether you're a winning player or not. personally i just set my filter to only show the ChipEV graph and look at that at the end of every session, if ChipEV is good then i'm happy.
My ChipEV vs actual results:
My ChipEV vs all-in adjusted results:
what you'll notice is that the EV adjusted results graph kind of looks like the ChipEV graph, i mean you can spot the same sort of patterns, the upswings, the downswings, etc. however, when comparing with the actual results with ChipEV the pattern is a lot more distorted, because of much higher variance.
Last edited by iluvbubees; 06-27-2021 at 12:25 AM.