Hey everyone!

I played spins for some time and I have studied some Mathematics of Spin and Gos, but there are still some things which I cannot get right.

For example, I don't understand how PT4 calculates ICM Equity Adjusted - End at in Game Currency in certain spots. And is this the right Indicator to be taken into account in the long run? For me this is 'My C Net Adjusted' - don't see any difference.

Below are 2 hands that I have played recently in $7 Spins, both of the tourneys in question had the multiplier of 4x - $28 prize.
I don't want to ask about my play in these 2 spots, but only about the pure mathematics of the 2 situations.

Hand No.1
PokerStars Hand xxx: Tournament xxx, $6.51+$0.49 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20)
Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Seat 1 (210 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero (590 in chips)
Seat 3: Seat 3 (700 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 10
Seat 3: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qd Ad]
Seat 1: calls 20
Hero: raises 60 to 80
Seat 3: raises 620 to 700 and is all-in
Seat 1: calls 190 and is all-in
Hero: calls 510 and is all-in
Uncalled bet (110) returned to Seat 3
*** FLOP *** [Qs Qh 3c]
*** TURN *** [Qs Qh 3c] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [Qs Qh 3c 9h] [2s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Hero: shows [Qd Ad] (three of a kind, Queens)
Seat 3: shows [Ts Td] (two pair, Queens and Tens)
Hero collected 760 from side pot
Seat 1: shows [Th 6d] (a pair of Queens)
Hero collected 630 from main pot
Seat 1 finished the tournament in 3rd place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1390 Main pot 630. Side pot 760. | Rake 0
Board [Qs Qh 3c 9h 2s]
Seat 1: Seat 1 (button) showed [Th 6d] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 2: Hero (small blind) showed [Qd Ad] and won (1390) with three of a kind, Queens
Seat 3: Seat 3 (big blind) showed [Ts Td] and lost with two pair, Queens and Tens

PT4 evaluates this play as being -$13.44! How can this be? I was 46.49% favorite to win the hand, thus resulting in more expected chips than I had at the beginning of the hand.


Hand No.2
PokerStars Hand xxx: Tournament xxx, $6.51+$0.49 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (40/80) -
Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: Hero (680 in chips)
Seat 3: Seat 3 (820 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind 40
Seat 3: posts big blind 80
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [5s Qs]
Hero: calls 40
Seat 3: checks
*** FLOP *** [8d Qd 3d]
Seat 3: checks
Hero: bets 80
Seat 3: raises 130 to 210
Hero: raises 390 to 600 and is all-in
Seat 3: calls 390
*** TURN *** [8d Qd 3d] [9h]
*** RIVER *** [8d Qd 3d 9h] [9s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Seat 3: shows [Jd 6s] (a pair of Nines)
Hero: shows [5s Qs] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
Hero collected 1360 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1360 | Rake 0
Board [8d Qd 3d 9h 9s]
Seat 2: Hero (button) (small blind) showed [5s Qs] and won (1360) with two pair, Queens and Nines
Seat 3: Seat 3 (big blind) showed [Jd 6s] and lost with a pair of Nines

PT4 evaluates this play as being -$9.82! Unlike the hand from above, now I was a big favorite, at 62.12%. So how can I have negative expectation?

Please help me out guys because really I don't understand how this can even be possible.

Thanks!

ICM in simplified terms means that $ value of chips lost have more value than the $ value of the chips won.

With ICM the value of chips lost can be 2x or more the value of chips won. So for instance imagine that you have 500 chips at a 2:1 ICM adjusted value. If you win you win the value of t500, but if you lose your 500, you lose the value of t1,000. So it is possible that you can call an all in with 2:1 pot odds and have 49% equity and it be a bad ICM call.

Let's say you call 500 to win 1,000, with 49% equity, but 2:1 ICM pressure.

Your cEV for that call is 735. Seems like a good call. However, when you consider that the value of chips risked were worth 1,000 instead of the actual 500, your good call now becomes a bad call for a -265 adjusted ICM value.

Spins don't have ICM as it is winner takes all. Chip EV is what matters.

If you post your hands in a nice format there is a good chance I can answer your question, cba reading lines of text.

If you win a hand that you don't have 100% equity when all the chips go into the middle you're always going to have a -expectation compared to your actual result. If you won $21 dollars when your actual expectation was 50% of $21 you're winning 10.50 more than you should be from that spot. Now in your actual example you aren't actually winning the tournament as there are people left still and that's why cEV is important.

Thanks for reply MMS.

Below the hands presented in a nice format

Hand No.1

PokerStars - 10/20 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 10.5 BB (VPIP: 80.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
Hero (SB): 29.5 BB
BB: 35 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

BTN calls 1 BB, Hero raises to 4 BB, BB raises to 35 BB and is all-in, BTN calls 9.5 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 25.5 BB and is all-in

Flop: (69.5 BB, 3 players) Q Q 3

Turn: (69.5 BB, 3 players) 9

River: (69.5 BB, 3 players) 2

Hero shows Q A (Three of a Kind, Queens)

Main Pot [31.5 BB]: (Pre 46%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
Side Pot#1 [38 BB]: (Pre 50%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)

BB shows T T (Two Pair, Queens and Tens)

Main Pot [31.5 BB]: (Pre 45%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
Side Pot#1 [38 BB]: (Pre 50%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BTN shows T 6 (One Pair, Queens)

Main Pot [31.5 BB]: (Pre 8%, Flop 0%, Turn 0%)

Hero wins 69.5 BB


PT4 evaluates this play as being -$13.44!


Hand No.2

PokerStars - 40/80 NL (3 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): 8.5 BB
BB: 10.25 BB (VPIP: 65.45, PFR: 52.83, 3Bet Preflop: 36.36, Hands: 60)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 5 Q

Hero calls 0.5 BB, BB checks

Flop: (2 BB, 2 players) 8 Q 3
BB checks, Hero bets 1 BB, BB raises to 2.62 BB, Hero raises to 7.5 BB and is all-in, BB calls 4.87 BB

Turn: (17 BB, 2 players) 9

River: (17 BB, 2 players) 9

BB shows J 6 (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 38%, Flop 38%, Turn 27%)
Hero shows 5 Q (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 62%, Flop 62%, Turn 73%)
Hero wins 17 BB

PT4 evaluates this play as being -$9.82!

I'm really interested to see how it is calculated,

Thanks!

Stop evaluating hands in $ev, at least because PT4 dont have this option for tournaments and you basically confusing stats from different pages. You can see $ev only for full tournament and even then it will be incorrect if its native PT4 stat. Here link for correct $ev for spins and chipev.
https://dropmefiles.com/2W7eK

About first hand above, its 3way pot. PT4 and HM2 calculating result of 3way pots as fact. I mean ev=fact, even if one of players was 1bb deep and went all-in with other two and even if someone had 99% equity. Winner takes whole pot as ev=fact.
So in first case you should have won all 69.5bb of evbb.
And thats why your $ results are completely out of room. Not only they are in $, they also negative which is impossible for those hands.
This is issue that wasnt been solved by trackers for years, and Im not even sure that its totally incorrect. Anyway those spots are rather rare and in a long run you will be both winning and loosing them, so they are not influencing your winrate at all.

I always wondered: does this "$ev" stat show ev in currency that I am using or in fact in dollars?

I mean, if I play on pokerstars.es for example and I got "100$ev" does it actually mean "100euro" (I guess so, but not sure what is the formula and if does include adequate rake) or I need to recalculate it...?