serious question:
at the river, when the board pairs with the second hand...is my equity going up overall or down? i guess up cause now i am dominating all 2pair hands he could have on the flop. on the other hand , though unlikely on this board, he could have a king.
so shove or not?
PokerStars - $11+$0.50|15/30 NL (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: 1,675.00
Hero (SB): 1,325.00

Hero posts SB 15.00, BB posts BB 30.00

Pre Flop: (45.00) Hero has A Q

Hero raises to 90.00, BB calls 60.00

Flop: (180.00, 2 players) 5 A T
BB checks, Hero bets 120.00, BB calls 120.00

Turn: (420.00, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 270.00, BB calls 270.00

River: (960.00, 2 players) K
BB checks, Hero bets 845.00 and is all-in, BB calls 845.00

Is this an easy fold?
32nd hand.Villain is TAG.Raises 1/3 of his buttons and 3bets 25% in the bb.This is his first checkraise.I supposed he might be a bit spewy because i won a big pot in the previous hand.
Should i check back the river?

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15.00/t30.00 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BTN/SB): t2380.00 79.33 BBs
BB: t620.00 20.67 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN/SB with 9 J
Hero calls t15, BB checks

Flop: (t60) J 7 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t60.00, BB calls t60

Turn: (t180) 3 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t90.00, BB raises to t530, Hero calls t440

River: (t1240) 9 (2 players)

Jedi: Your equity does go up I believe cause you now beat more combos, but that doesn't mean you will get value of them. If the pairing card had been the T I think it is possible that your equity goes down.I think that I bet the turn a little bigger btw, then your rivershove seems less scary.


Kraft: I think it's a fold. The most useful stat you didn't provide though: how much 3's are in his defending range?

i would start by not limping, after that, checking turn looks good unless you have reason to believe he calls down 3 streets with 7x

I limped on the button.Is he defending when he checks in the BB preflop?A bit confused.

I'm sorry, I messed up reading your hand. My new advice is to listen to the post right under mine

Well i normally raise it preflop.But like i said i won a big pot from him and since his 3bet % was pretty high i was scared that he might 3bet shove very wide and i'd have to fold.

fair enough, the rest of my statement is still true

yeah,thanks for the input

@jedi: when he c/c's this river, your equity prob goes up, as there are fewer 2pair combos he can have, fewer Kx combos he'll play like that and more Ax hands that call for a chop. It's def an ez shove no matter what

@kraft: what spamz said

Is this standard?Villain raised 1/2 of his buttons and 3bet 17% in 70 hands.His first 4bet.

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15.00/t30.00 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): t935.00 31.17 BBs
BTN/SB: t2065.00 68.83 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with K Q
BTN/SB raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, BTN/SB raises to t2065, Hero calls t755 all in

Flop: (t1870) 2 6 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

Turn: (t1870) 2 (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: (t1870) 8 (2 players - 1 is all in)

did you 3bet before? what was action then?

3bet once,he folded

given he only opens half his buttons i kinda like a flat preflop more because it's sooted
since he doesn't cbet a lot, def consider leading certain flops

I'm wondering if we are always getting it in here. Was villian's first 3bet postflop, and first preflop raise that was over minimum.


Poker Stars $2.00+$0.09 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 2 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BB): t1449 48.30 BBs
BTN/SB: t1551 51.70 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BB with 5 K
BTN/SB raises to t67, Hero calls t37

Flop: (t134) 8 T K (2 players)
Hero bets t90, BTN/SB raises to t278

dont lead if you don't know what to do here

I lead out with the intention of shoving over a 3bet, which is what I did.

Maybe I'm being results-oriented, but I felt stupid when opp turned over kj and no saving heart came.

i'm flipping with any king, and ahead of str8t and flush draws, but this villian didn't seem the type to push with draws, so upon re-evaluation, I'm ahead of nothing that he would want to get his whole stack in with. I'm just flipping, with not alot of fold equity.

The flop just seems so pretty.

A fold just doesn't seem right. I have a strong draw and top pair.

Neither does a shove. I'm clearly up against the top of opp's range. ak, k10, kj, kq, all very possible holdings.

I'm confused.

you shouldnt be leading too much without a very consistent gameplan behind it imo

You are def. right.

I do lead alot. I lead from the bb with mp+ and strong draws vs most opps.

I wonder what you mean by gameplan, though?

I lead alot, I guess, in order to establish an image that I can take advantage of later in the match when I actually have the str8t and pot the river, and villian thinks of all of those dozens of semibluffs and stabs I've being jabbing him with, and so decides to pay me off with 2 pair. I guess this is just a general strategy.

A gameplan, against a tight nit, would be to stab and stab until he bleeds to death from a multitude of lacerations, or force him to widen his calling range, and catch him with the nuts.

So...

Why would I want to flip with the nit...

It's not part of my gameplan.

Is that kinda an example of what you are saying?

Probably not at all what spamz is getting at, but how much and when are you c/r if all your strong hands you are leading? This is the sort of spot where I'd check / raise / call since if you are 3B you're probably flipping anyway but you get more value from his c/bets and more FE with c/r than a donk. Also allows you to c/r monsters and get called down lighter rather than having to lead with them.

Related question. If you lead here and he just flats what's your plan on a brick turn? You're equity has dropped a lot vs top pair better kicker and you still have a lot of your stack behind.

Not c/r'ng is a major leak in my game.

I just bet bet bet.

Your post was really helpful, roca.

Aha! helpful.



Much to spamz too, for dealing with all of us newbie fishies.

I can't send a pm yet.Will i be able to do that if i receive one from someone?

i think you need a certain post amount, 50 or so

ok,thanks

Evening all.

I am going to set myself a challenge of playing x amount of $10 HU SnG's and achieving a y% ROI or quitting poker for good. I've got the tools to beat HU (HEM, Pokerstove, Books, DC membership, Hand charts) and I'm determined to prove to myself that I can beat the game for a respectable hourly rate. And if I can't I'll graciously accept defeat and move on. Before I get started, I have some questions to ask so I can get some information on how to structure this. My SnG history is only 120 games of $5 HU at 11% ROI so far, but I don't want to be grinding the $5's because the money isn't good.

Q1. How many games should I play?

I was thinking of a 1000 because it gives me a 95% confidence interval of my win rate +/- 3.1% Once I hit 1000 games I'll have a good idea of my performance.

Q2. What ROI should I aim for?

I'll be playing two tables of FT regular speed games. I think these take about 10 minutes on average to finish, so I'm looking at about 12 games an hour. At 10% ROI this is +$12/hr, which I'll be content with as it's more than I'll get working.

-----

I'll also have to set a time limit to complete the 1000 games. At 12 an hour, I think a month is a suitable deadline. If the number of games per hour changes this will also have to change. Thinking about it, 1000 games at 10% ROI nets me $1000, which is not great for a months work, but I'll have the opportunity to move up once the challenge is finished and make a better hourly.