This is a 16d zoom HU torunament, so no reads on villain.

You can decide to check the flop (or make a larger bet), but else I think the line untill river is standard.

Im curious about what you guys think of villains riverbet. I see this a lot, and I think most of the time, it is a valuebet from someone who improved on river, and dont want to see me check behind, therefore i definately think a Tx is possible. I don't really see him do this with Ax, but if he does, I have a kicker problem.
So.. I believe this to be a very strong bet, but still a very narrow part of his range, so can we throw this away?

Thanks


[converted_hand][hand_history]PokerStars - 100/200 Ante 25 NL FAST (2 max) - Holdem - 2 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

Hero (SB): 11,059 (55.3 bb)
BB: 13,163 (65.8 bb)

2 players post ante of 25, Hero posts SB 100, BB posts 200

Pre Flop: (pot: 350) Hero has A 5
Hero raises to 400, BB calls 200

Flop: (850, 2 players) 6 T 5
BB checks, Hero bets 281, BB calls 281

Turn: (1,412, 2 players) A
BB checks, Hero bets 706, BB calls 706

River: (2,824, 2 players) T
BB bets 1,412

I think this is going to be Tx a lot of the time. He has some combos of 87, 74 that miss, but not many. You're correct that fish are scared you'll check back river, which you should be.

Size up turn. Pot size or greater. Leverage your stack. The river decision is whatever - turn sizing mistake is important.

River is close. Only need to be good ~25%. I think despite all the TX in villain's range, it's still a pretty easy river to overbluff if villain chooses to lead a lot of his missed draw combos. Your combo also unblocks all the missed draws, so I'd call since I think it's probably close.

If we assign villain a wide value-calling range of A2o-ATo, A2s-ATs, KTo-T5o, Kts-T5o, we get 229 combos and our hand has 14% vs that.
If he bluffs his missed 34o,34s,78o,78s,74o,74s, our equity skyrockets to 38.6%.

We are at 24.3% equity if he only bluffs when he misses his 87o-87s, which is a bluff frequency of 6.5%

I think in-game I'd think about folding because it just screams 10x, but now I'd say that looks like a mistake.

I think following 1/3 pot flop + 1/2 pot turn villains turn call range is potentially a lot wider than that. Very villain-dependent.