Hi, I played 2500 hands of my best poker in husng super turbos (7s and 15s) on stars.

This is how my graph look like and I would like to know if it's enough to say that I am a winner player.

9% ROI without EV and 7% with EV adjusted.

I know this ROI will not be there forever since it's mostly capped at 5% but at least just to know if I beat the 7s/15s

You are a winning player over 2500 games, that's a fact that can't be argued with. Play another 2500, and I'd say there is a fair chance you'll be a winning player over 5000 games.

It's a pretty good spot to take a shot at 30's tbh. That kind of ROI is too good to stay at such low stakes.

2500 hands? really? YES, you are a winner.

Yes, sorry I agree. I wasn't trying to say he should stay at the lower stakes with my post. I think it's well worth moving on up with such a good roi.

2500 HANDS is one of the most absurdly small numbers I've heard this question asked about. You're probably a winner, but wow. Perspective.

Fake. At the start, you got 2k$+ in around 150 hands. It's 13.3$/hand, and the graph has a small downswing at the start, so it's over 15$/hand I think. So, fake.

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Are these threads just to brag?

Do you even logic?

How can he have more than 15$/HAND while playing 7/15$ HUs?

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Perhaps the Unit for the Y-axis is not $.

Come back when you played 10k games (NOT HANDS) and then ask the question again. For that small sample size EV is worth nothing as it doesnt even start to take into account card distribution. And obv. since you ran way above the norm you should be able to figure out that despite an okayish EV graph you ran hot...

Much lol
Such mistake
Wow

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whats a good number of tournies or hands??

1729. It's quite a nice/good number.

G. H. Hardy regarding a visit to the hospital to see the Indian mathematician Srinivasa Ramanujan.

Golden.

Well, the higher the winrate, the more likely it is you're a winner.

If you came in here with 1% ROI it might be "LOL sample" but 2500 at that winrate makes the liklihood that you're a winner quite high.

However, we may have stumbled upon a weakness. You're winning at a very high rate, yet you're not moving up. That is often a sign of a lack of confidence in yourself/comfort in the game/trying to keep everything under control.

You should be playing at least one level higher. What's the worst that happens? You don't do so well and move down quickly? That's terrible!

But seriously, move up, don't be afraid and don't think you need a huge ROI and no variance in this game, be prepared, hell, expect to struggle sometimes, and you'll be a lot happier. You'll never control it or print money without struggle.

It's 2500 hands not games.

I have 2000 hands yesterday+today!!! and I played like 3-4 hours.
Go play 100$ man you are good. You serious about answering this 2000 hands?
5% ROI over 1 day of playing at 7$, yep that's a sign for moving at 30+ ASAP.

typo or u srys hands games what ?

edit...



graph says hands....

shakes head

u could be iaght tho

I've never liked figuring ROI in heads up sit and go's as I prefer to figure in terms of winning % since every game is the exact same buy-in and risk at the same level. Yes, they are the same thing, but getting your win rate on basis of a game % seems easier to formulate your approximate yearly income plan and makes it easier to track. I play $100 turbo's and win 55% of my matches. I keep track of every 100, 500 and 1,000 match blocks. A typical 1,000 game block might look like this : 59 52 61 49 58 (279) - 58 52 47 60 57 (274) SCORE = 553

You're playing hyper turbo's which is a completely different animal with lower win %, higher volume, and much more variance, but the scoring concept is the same. If you play 10,000 games at a level, you'll be pretty close to knowing what your win rate is (it will also factor in all the variables like how you handle the many losing streaks and bad beat trains that are inevitable during a 10,000 game block). And the good news is, whatever your rate is, you can always improve.

I never much cared for figuring how I was running compared to my expected equity in all-in races because that will all even itself out over 10,000 games for the most part.

Here's a little binomial math. If a player (or any gambler for that matter) has an average of a 55% chance of winning per contest, here are the chances of that player having success between 54 and 56% of the time:

per 100 matches, the chances of winning 54,55,or 56 times is 23.68%

per 1,000 matches, the chances of winning between 540 and 560 times is 50.46%

per 10,000 matches, the chances of winning between 5400 and 5600 matches is 95.66%


Hope my 2 cents had a little value for you